Identification and dynamic evolution of land use conflict potentials in China, 2000–2020

Under the background of rapid urbanization, a series of urgent problems have emerged in China, such as tightening resource constraints and intensifying land use conflicts (LUCs). Based on the perspective of agricultural production – residents’ life – ecological security, this study took China as the study area, applied the multi-criteria evaluation analysis method to diagnose the LUC type based on spatial statistics, coupling relationship matrix, comprehensive conflict index, and spatial autocorrelation model, then divided the LUC risk changes into seven patterns, and analyzed their spatial evolution characteristics. The results demonstrated that the scale of competition for scarce land between agriculture, construction, and ecology increased by 3.4 % over the last 20-year period. High conflict zone was mainly located in the eastern plains, which was also the main distribution zone of agriculture-construction conflict, while the agriculture-ecology conflict zone was mainly located in the west. Over time, LUC risk grade changed in 14.3 % of the study area, with the largest area of transitions from no conflict to moderate conflict (34.78 %). High intensification zone coincided almost entirely with ecologically fragile regions of the Midwest, underscoring the critical importance of LUC perspectives in ecological conservation. We provided a new perspective for the study of LUC changes and a scientific reference for realizing sustainable land use management in China and other regions.