评估 24 小时经济对加纳经济格局的影响:可计算的一般均衡方法

IF 6.2 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Socio-economic Planning Sciences Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI:10.1016/j.seps.2024.102017
Yakubu Abdul-Salam
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引用次数: 0

摘要

加纳主要反对党全国民主大会党(NDC)在加纳即将于 2024 年举行的大选之前,公布了一项雄心勃勃的 "24 小时经济 "政策提案。该政策旨在通过促进关键部门的全天候运营来重振国家经济格局。本文采用动态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型框架,以 2015 年加纳社会核算矩阵(SAM)和 2021 年加纳人口与住房普查(PHC)数据为基础,评估该政策对加纳经济的潜在影响。结果表明,在拟议的 "24 小时经济 "政策下,加纳十年内的实际 GDP 增长率(不要与 GDP 增长率相混淆)将比同一时间段内 "一切照旧 "情况下的增长率高出 31.71%。这表明,在 "24 小时经济 "环境下,加纳经济的经济产出将大幅增加。此外,该政策将在实施后的五年内创造 300 多万个就业岗位,其中制造业、农业、批发和零售业、服务业、建筑业和运输业的就业率将大幅提高。该政策的转型效应主要体现在其刺激资本投资和资本形成、提高生产率和增加家庭收入的能力上。然而,该政策的实施可能会面临一些挑战,这就需要在制定政策时采取综合方法,重点关注包容性增长和可持续发展战略。
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Evaluating the Impact of a 24-Hour Economy on Ghana’s Economic Landscape: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach

The National Democratic Congress (NDC), Ghana’s leading opposition political party, has unveiled an ambitious ‘24-hour economy’ policy proposal ahead of the country’s forthcoming general elections in 2024. The policy aims to revitalise the nation’s economic landscape by fostering round-the-clock operations in key sectors. This paper employs a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model framework, underpinned by the 2015 Ghana Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and the 2021 Ghana Population and Housing Census (PHC) data, to evaluate the potential impact of the policy on Ghana’s economy.

Results indicate that under the proposed ‘24-hour economy’ policy, Ghana’s real GDP growth (not to be confused with GDP growth rate) in ten years would be 31.71% higher than it would have been under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario in the same timeframe. This indicates substantial augmentations in economic output within the Ghanaian economy under a ‘24-hour economy’ setting. Further, the policy would generate more than 3 million jobs within five years of its implementation, with manufacturing, agriculture, wholesale and retail trade, services, construction and transport sectors experiencing substantial employment gains.

The policy’s transformative effects are driven by its ability to stimulate capital investment and capital formation, boost productivity and increase household incomes.

The paper concludes that the NDC’s proposed ‘24-hour economy’ policy holds substantial potential for transformative economic growth in Ghana. However, there are potential challenges associated with the implementation of the policy, which then necessitates a holistic approach to policy formulation, focusing on inclusive growth and sustainable development strategies.

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来源期刊
Socio-economic Planning Sciences
Socio-economic Planning Sciences OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE-
CiteScore
9.40
自引率
13.10%
发文量
294
审稿时长
58 days
期刊介绍: Studies directed toward the more effective utilization of existing resources, e.g. mathematical programming models of health care delivery systems with relevance to more effective program design; systems analysis of fire outbreaks and its relevance to the location of fire stations; statistical analysis of the efficiency of a developing country economy or industry. Studies relating to the interaction of various segments of society and technology, e.g. the effects of government health policies on the utilization and design of hospital facilities; the relationship between housing density and the demands on public transportation or other service facilities: patterns and implications of urban development and air or water pollution. Studies devoted to the anticipations of and response to future needs for social, health and other human services, e.g. the relationship between industrial growth and the development of educational resources in affected areas; investigation of future demands for material and child health resources in a developing country; design of effective recycling in an urban setting.
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