CT Chest Imaging Using Normalized Join-Count: Predicting Emphysema Progression in the CanCOLD Study.

Background Pre-existing emphysema is recognized as an indicator of future worsening in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) when observed through CT imaging. However, it remains uncertain whether additional factors, such as the spatial compactness of CT emphysema, might also serve as predictors of disease progression. Purpose To evaluate the relationship between the compactness of CT emphysema voxels and emphysema progression. Materials and Methods This secondary analysis uses data from the prospective Canadian Cohort Obstructive Lung Disease (CanCOLD) study, examining CT images obtained in participants with and without COPD at baseline and a 3-year follow-up time point (November 2009 to November 2018). Measurements of forced expiratory volume in first second of expiration (FEV₁) and diffusing capacity of lung for carbon monoxide (DLco) were collected. The normalized join-count (NJC) measurement from baseline CT images and lung density (LD) changes were analyzed. Emphysema progression was defined as an annualized LD change of less than half an SD below the mean of the participants without COPD with no smoking history. Multivariable linear and logistic regression models were used to assess the association between baseline CT NJC measurements and the annualized change in LD, FEV₁, DLco, and emphysema progression versus nonprogression. Results A total of 524 participants (mean age, 66 years ± 10 [SD]; 293 male) (FEV₁ percent predicted, 88% ± 19; FEV₁/FVC, 67% ± 9; DLco percent predicted, 105% ± 25) were analyzed, 187 (36%) of whom had COPD. CT NJC was associated with the annualized change in LD (P < .001), FEV₁ (P = .02), and DLco (P = .01). Additionally, CT NJC predicted emphysema progression versus nonprogression (odds ratio, 2.24; 95% CI: 1.37, 3.50; P < .001). Conclusion The spatial distribution, or "compactness," of CT emphysema voxels predicted emphysema progression in individuals with and without COPD. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00920348 © RSNA, 2024 Supplemental material is available for this article.