A novel method to monitor rheumatoid arthritis prevalence using hospital and medication databases

Most estimates of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) prevalence, including all official figures in Australia and many other countries, are based on self-report. Self-report has been shown to overestimate RA, but the ‘gold standard’ of reviewing individual medical records is costly, time-consuming and impractical for large-scale research and population monitoring. This study provides an algorithm to estimate RA cases using administrative data that can be adjusted for use in multiple contexts to provide the first approximate RA cohort in Australia that does not rely on self-report. Survey data on self-reported RA and medications from 25 467 respondents of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health (ALSWH) were linked with data from the national medication reimbursement database, hospital and emergency department (ED) episodes, and Medicare Benefits codes. RA prevalence was calculated for self-reported RA, self-reported RA medications, dispensed RA medications, and hospital/ED RA presentations. Linked data were used to exclude individuals with confounding autoimmune conditions. Of 25 467 survey respondents, 1367 (5·4%) women self-reported disease. Of the 26 840 women with hospital or ED presentations, 292 (1·1%) received ICD-10 codes for RA. There were 1038 (2·8%) cases by the medication database definition, and 294 cases (1·5%) by the self-reported medication definition. After excluding individuals with other rheumatic conditions, prevalence was 3·9% for self-reported RA, 1·9% based on the medication database definition and 0·5% by self-reported medication definition. This confirms the overestimation of RA based on self-reporting. We provide an algorithm for identifying individuals with RA, which could be used for population studies and monitoring RA in Australia and, with adjustments, internationally. Its balance of accuracy and practicality will be useful for health service planning using relatively easily accessible input data.