减少化学合成杀虫剂的潜力--以德国南部生态计划为例的案例研究

Felix Witte, Christian Sponagel, Enno Bahrs
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摘要

化学合成杀虫剂(CSP)对环境有多种负面影响。欧盟委员会的目标是到 2030 年将化学合成杀虫剂的使用量减少 50%。本文研究了德国的生态计划(Eco-Scheme),这是一项农业环境付款计划,要求在一年时间内放弃在耕地作物中使用化学合成杀虫剂(CSP)。我们以德国南部的巴登-符腾堡州为案例,研究了生态计划作为减少化学合成杀虫剂的政策工具的适用性。我们使用了基于线性规划的实地地理参考综合土地利用模型。模拟了生态计划的不同支付水平。此外,我们还分析了劳动力可用性、作物产量要求和市场价格对生态计划实施(吸收)的影响。2023 年的支付水平为 130 欧元/公顷,其实施潜力有限,且在很大程度上取决于市场价格和潜在的粮食供应目标。总体 CSP 使用量(以活性物质质量衡量)的下降比例甚至低于生态计划实施面积的下降比例。实施潜力主要体现在边缘地区。较高的模拟付款水平导致较低的成本效益和自重损失。成本效益与有效减排之间的这种权衡对生态方案的适用性提出了质疑,至少对更大程度地减少碳储量而言是如此。为了提高经济效益,我们建议根据减排成本(如作物)来区分支付水平。
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Reduction potentials of chemical-synthetic pesticides – A case study using the example of an Eco-Scheme in southern Germany

Chemical-synthetic pesticides (CSPs) are associated with several negative environmental effects. The European Commission aims to reduce their use by 50% by 2030. This paper looks at the German Eco-Scheme, an agri-environmental payment scheme, for the foregoing of chemical-synthetic pesticides (CSPs) in arable crops for a one-year period. Using Baden-Württemberg in southern Germany as a case study, we investigated the suitability of the Eco-Scheme as a policy tool for CSP reduction. We used a field-based, georeferenced integrated land use model based on linear programming. Different payment levels for the Eco-Scheme were simulated. In addition, we analyzed the effect of labor availability, crop yield requirements, and market prices on Eco-Scheme implementation (uptake).

The implementation potentials at €130/ha, the payment level in 2023, were limited and strongly dependent on market prices as well as potential food supply targets. The percentage decline in overall CSP use (measured in active substance mass) was even lower than the implementation in the percentage of acreage attributed to the Eco-Scheme. The implementation potentials were mainly observed on marginal sites. Higher simulated payment levels led to lower cost efficiency and dead weight losses. This trade-off between cost efficiency and effective reduction questions the suitability of the Eco-Scheme, at least for more substantial CSP reductions. To increase economic efficiency, we recommend differentiating payments based on abatement costs, for example on a crop-basis.

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