不同管理情景下中国未来的森林碳汇潜力

IF 2.7 Q1 FORESTRY Trees, Forests and People Pub Date : 2024-07-17 DOI:10.1016/j.tfp.2024.100621
Fushan Cheng , Jiaxin Tian , Jingyuan He , Huaijiang He , Guangdao Bao , Yuchun Yang , Guoliang Liu , Zhonghui Zhang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

提高森林碳储存和碳固存能力对于实现碳中和至关重要。科学的森林管理可以保持森林较高的固碳能力,考虑木制品的碳库可以延长碳固定的时间。然而,目前对大规模森林碳储量和固碳能力的预测忽略了森林碳吸收量随林龄的变化以及木制品碳库在碳释放过程中的缓冲作用。本文基于《森林资源清查(2014-2018)》数据,利用森林模拟与优化系统模型(FSOS)分析了不同经营情景下的木材供给和碳汇能力。结果表明,中国森林未来可出口大量木材;根据第九次森林资源调查报告,中国森林年产量仅为 8800 万立方米-1。其中,采伐对象以人工林为主,如果所有森林(人工林和天然林)都参与森林经营规划,则最大可持续年木材供应量将达到 2.86 亿立方米/年。此外,由于目前中国幼林所占比例较大,未来(截至 2039 年)年木材供应量可达到 3.58 亿立方米。与无管理方案相比,森林管理可提高森林生态系统的固碳能力和木材供应量。总之,未经管理的森林固碳潜力有限。适当的森林管理可以提高森林的固碳潜力。木制品和生物能源的碳减排替代也可大大减轻实现碳中和战略的压力。
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China's future forest carbon sequestration potential under different management scenarios

Enhancing forest carbon storage and carbon sequestration capacity is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality. Scientific forest management can maintain a high level of carbon sequestration capacity in forests, and considering the carbon pool of wood products can extend the time of carbon fixation. However, current predictions of large-scale forest carbon storage and carbon sequestration capacity have overlooked changes in forest carbon absorption with forest age and the buffering effect of wood product carbon pools in the carbon release process. In this paper, we used the Forest Simulation and Optimization System model (FSOS) to analyze the wood supply and carbon sequestration capacities of different management scenarios based on data from the Forest Resources Inventory (2014–2018). The results showed that China's forests could export significant amounts of timber in the future; According to the 9th forest survey report, China's forests produce only 88 million m3 yr-1. Among them, the harvested objects were mainly planted forests, and if all forests (planted forests and natural forests) are involved in forest management planning, the maximum sustainable annual wood supply will reach 286 million m3 yr-1. Moreover, due to the current large proportion of younger forests in China, 358 million m3 of annual wood supply will be achievable in the future (as of the year 2039). Forest management can increase the carbon sequestration capacities in forest ecosystems as well as the wood supply compared to the no management options. In summary, the carbon sequestration potential of unmanaged forests is limited. Appropriate forest management can increase the carbon sequestration potential of forests. The substitution of carbon emission reduction of wood products and bioenergy can also greatly reduce the pressure to achieve carbon neutral strategies.

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来源期刊
Trees, Forests and People
Trees, Forests and People Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
4.30
自引率
7.40%
发文量
172
审稿时长
56 days
期刊最新文献
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