Research on safety evaluation and weather routing optimization of ship based on roll dynamics and improved A* algorithm

With the steady growth of international trade, sea transport has become indispensable, leading to an increase in maritime accidents. The sinking of the Russian Black Sea Fleet flagship, the guided missile cruiser “Moskva,” underscores the critical need for enhanced maritime safety. However, the dynamics of ship stability, particularly under transverse wind and wave conditions, remain unclear. We aimed to explore ship navigation safety by using the Moskva incident as a case study. Specifically, our objective was to investigate the influence of wind and waves on ship stability, calculate the capsizing probability of the vessel, and devise a fast and safe return path to port. We conducted a comprehensive review of existing literature on ship stability and path-planning algorithms. Leveraging this knowledge, we established the dynamics equation under transverse wind and wave conditions and integrated risk and vulnerability indicators to obtain a quantitative sea-area risk zoning map. Additionally, we employed the A* algorithm to plan a path under International Maritime Organization rules restrictions. Our findings reveal insights into ship stability dynamics and the importance of considering environmental factors in navigation safety. We calculated the capsizing probability of Moskva and devised a fast and safe return path to port, highlighting the practical application of our methodology. This study contributes to the understanding of ship navigation safety by addressing the knowledge gap in ship stability dynamics. Our findings underscore the significance of considering environmental factors in navigation safety planning. However, limitations exist in terms of data availability and model accuracy. Future research should explore additional factors impacting ship stability and refine path-planning algorithms for enhanced safety.