推进可再生能源预测:可再生能源预测方法综述

Energies Pub Date : 2024-07-15 DOI:10.3390/en17143480
Rita Teixeira, A. Cerveira, E. J. S. Pires, José Baptista
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引用次数: 0

摘要

社会经济增长和人口增加推动了全球对能源的持续需求。可再生能源正在成为尽量减少化石燃料使用的主要解决方案。然而,可再生资源具有明显的间歇性和不可预测性,这对其能源生产和并入电网造成了影响。为了应对这些挑战,预测模型的开发越来越多,而且随着可再生能源融入能源系统,预测模型变得至关重要。本文以光伏发电和风力发电为重点,对可再生能源生产预测方法进行了比较分析。在考虑气候变量、优化算法、预处理技术和各种预测范围的基础上,对最新技术进行了综述,对不同的预测模型进行了归纳和分类。通过整合优化算法和预处理方法等多种技术,并精心选择预测范围,可以突出预测的准确性和稳定性。总之,预测方法的不断发展和完善对于实现可持续和可靠的能源未来至关重要。
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Advancing Renewable Energy Forecasting: A Comprehensive Review of Renewable Energy Forecasting Methods
Socioeconomic growth and population increase are driving a constant global demand for energy. Renewable energy is emerging as a leading solution to minimise the use of fossil fuels. However, renewable resources are characterised by significant intermittency and unpredictability, which impact their energy production and integration into the power grid. Forecasting models are increasingly being developed to address these challenges and have become crucial as renewable energy sources are integrated in energy systems. In this paper, a comparative analysis of forecasting methods for renewable energy production is developed, focusing on photovoltaic and wind power. A review of state-of-the-art techniques is conducted to synthesise and categorise different forecasting models, taking into account climatic variables, optimisation algorithms, pre-processing techniques, and various forecasting horizons. By integrating diverse techniques such as optimisation algorithms and pre-processing methods and carefully selecting the forecast horizon, it is possible to highlight the accuracy and stability of forecasts. Overall, the ongoing development and refinement of forecasting methods are crucial to achieve a sustainable and reliable energy future.
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