台风博拉文(1215 年)造成的风暴潮对韩国海岸的影响:与深水设计波浪的比较分析

Tae-Gyeong Hwang, Seung-Chul Seo, Hoyeong Jin, Hyeseong Oh, Woo-Dong Lee
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摘要

:本文采用第三代近岸波浪模拟(SWAN)海洋波浪模型估算和分析台风 "布拉万 "引起的风暴潮,重点研究其对韩国西海岸和济州岛的影响。该研究利用日本气象厅中尺度模式(JMA-MSM)重新分析的气象数据,模拟了台风 "布拉万 "引起的风暴潮,台风 "布拉万 "在 2012 年接近朝鲜半岛时,强度一直保持到高纬度地区。结果表明,济州岛以及韩国西部和西南部海域的风暴潮高度显著,岛屿附近的沿海网格点记录的风暴潮高度超过 50 年重现期设计波高的 90%。值得注意的是,西海北部和济州岛西南部岛屿附近的特定网格点估计的风暴潮高度分别为设计值的 90.22% 和 91.48%。本文强调了事件驱动型台风导致的沿海灾害预测的不确定性和脆弱性的增加,并强调在台风波浪预测不断升级的情况下,需要提高台风波浪预测的精度和速度。
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Effects of Storm Waves Caused by Typhoon Bolaven (1215) on Korean Coast: A Comparative Analysis with Deepwater Design Waves
: This paper employs the third-generation simulating waves nearshore (SWAN) ocean wave model to estimate and analyze storm waves induced by Typhoon Bolaven, focusing on its impact along the west coast and Jeju Island of Korea. Utilizing reanalyzed meteorological data from the Japan Meteorological Agency meso scale model (JMA-MSM), the study simulated storm waves from Typhoon Bolaven, which maintained its intensity up to high latitudes as it approached the Korean Peninsula in 2012. Validation of the SWAN model against observed wave data demonstrated a strong correlation, particularly in regions where wind speeds exceeded 20 m/s and wave heights surpassed 5 m. Results indicate significant storm wave heights across Jeju Island and Korea's west and southwest seas, with coastal grid points near islands recording storm wave heights exceeding 90% of the 50-year return period design wave heights. Notably, specific grid points near islands in the northern West Sea and southwest Jeju Island estimated storm wave heights at 90.22% and 91.48% of the design values, respectively. The paper highlights the increased uncertainty and vulnerability in coastal disaster predictions due to event-driven typhoons and emphasizes the need for enhanced accuracy and speed in typhoon wave predictions amid the escalating
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