自由化多国电力市场中小规模参与者的价格风险:伯利兹-墨西哥互联案例研究

Energies Pub Date : 2024-07-14 DOI:10.3390/en17143464
Khadija Sherece Usher, B. McLellan
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究利用 ARMA-ARCH 模型评估电价波动,并利用自回归确定条件波动率和进口消费的影响,从而研究了伯利兹-墨西哥互联的价格风险。研究结果表明,两个市场的波动,尤其是现货价格,表现出罕见的高影响冲击和长期的波动集群。波动定价趋势对溢价有积极影响,远期定价的影响较小。溢价主要取决于供应方(墨西哥)的定价特性和系统条件,买方(伯利兹)的影响微乎其微。不过,在某些时段,买方的装载和输电损失模式会产生重大影响。实际影响揭示了偶尔出现损失的可能性,其主要原因是信息延迟和风险因素与溢价的错位,这可能会影响伯利兹的电力成本承受能力和本地发电的调度。进一步的研究可以扩大目前的研究范围,通过将目前关于进口市场行为的研究结果与买方的本地电力扩张计划相结合,加强本地电力供应规划。
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Price Risk Exposure of Small Participants in Liberalized Multi-National Power Markets: A Case Study on the Belize–Mexico Interconnection
This study examined the price risk of the Belize–Mexico interconnection using ARMA-ARCH models to assess electricity pricing volatility and autoregression to determine the influence of conditional volatilities and import consumption. The findings revealed that the volatility of both markets, especially spot price, showed rare high-impact shocks and prolonged periods of volatile clusters. Volatile pricing tendencies, and forward pricing to a lesser extent, had positive effects on premiums. Premiums were largely dependent on pricing properties and system conditions of the supplier’s (Mexico) side, with negligible influence from the buyer’s (Belize) side. However, significant effects were found during certain hours with the buyer’s loading and transmission loss patterns. Practical implications revealed the possibility of occasional losses caused mostly by information delays and misalignment of risk factors and premiums, which could affect Belize’s power cost affordability and scheduling of local generation. Further research can broaden this current scope to enhance planning on local power supply by integrating current findings on the importation market behavior with the buyer’s local power expansion plan.
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