电力系统重构下经济-能源-环境(3E)系统耦合协调发展的多情景研究--基于 "双三角 "理论的新探索

Energies Pub Date : 2024-07-14 DOI:10.3390/en17143468
Haifeng Cen, Wenxiu Wang, Liping Chen, Weitao Hao, Zhe Guan, Juntong Lu, Guotian Cai
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在建设新型电力系统的背景下,作为能源系统的核心,电力系统的结构调整必然会对经济-能源-环境系统的协调发展产生联动影响。本文构建了由 "能源不可能三角 "和 "可持续发展三角 "组成的 "双三角 "理论框架。通过历史统计分析与情景预测分析相结合的方法,分析了 "双三角 "的历史特征和不同情景下的未来趋势,并研究了 "双三角 "的耦合互动关系。结论如下从 2010 年到 2022 年,能源系统逐渐向经济性和清洁化方向发展,"双三角 "运行状况稳定。双三角 "内大力推广可再生能源方案的正耦合关系密切,可视为电力系统重构的首选路径。安全与低碳分阶段发展方案是动态缓解 "能源不可能三角 "挑战的发展模式。安全已成为 "能源不可能三角 "的核心矛盾。本文对 "双三角 "理论进行了综合创新应用,为如何实现 "双三角 "的耦合互动提供了案例依据。
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Multi-Scenario Research on the Coupled and Coordinated Development of the Economic–Energy–Environmental (3E) System under the Reconstruction of the Power System—New Exploration Based on the “Dual Triangle” Theory
Under the background of building a new-type power system, as the core of the energy system, the restructuring of the power system will inevitably have a linked impact on the coordinated development of the economy–energy–environment system. A “Dual Triangle” theoretical framework consisting of the “Energy Impossibility Triangle” and “Sustainable Development Triangle” was constructed in this paper. By combining historical statistical analysis with scenario predictive analysis, the historical characteristics of the “Dual Triangle” and future trends under different scenarios were analyzed, and the coupled interaction relationship of the “Dual Triangle” was also studied. Conclusions were as follows: The energy system gradually inclined towards economy and cleanliness from 2010 to 2022, and the operation status of the “Dual Triangle” was stable. A positive coupling relationship within the “Dual Triangle” in vigorously promoting renewable energy scenarios is close, which can be regarded as the preferred path for the reconstruction of the power system. The security and low-carbon phased development scenario is a development model that dynamically mitigates the challenges of the “Energy Impossibility Triangle”. Security has become the core contradiction of the “Energy Impossibility Triangle”. This paper conducts an integrated and innovative application of the “Dual Triangle” theory and provides a case basis for how to achieve the coupled interaction of the “Dual Triangle”.
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