电子商务跨境和国内动态:关于卖家原产地影响的决策树和空间洞察力

Natalia Grishchenko
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摘要

尽管由于全球互联网接入,几乎所有商品和服务都可跨境在线购买,但卖家的国内来源仍然很重要。本研究探讨了 2020 年至 2023 年欧盟网络市场中网购商品和服务的国内偏好与跨境偏好。我们使用了定量方法,包括普通最小二乘法(OLS)、决策树和空间自相关分析。我们发现,货币、语言和互联网使用对国内网购有重大影响,而跨境网购则进一步受到价格和城市化的影响。我们的分析揭示了基于卖方来源的模式:国内卖方、欧盟内部卖方或非欧盟卖方。无论卖家来自何地,人们都强烈偏好电子商品和服务,而从国内卖家到欧盟内部卖家和非欧盟卖家,人们对实物商品的偏好程度呈递减趋势。研究发现,网上零售的地理效应和空间模式有限,趋向于国内本地化。卖家来源地在电子商务方面的这些差异主要是由特定国家的特点(语言、货币)而不是地理距离造成的。购买商品和服务的差异还取决于其物理和电子形式,即数字订购和/或数字交付。电子商务的扩展和国别特征的重要性要求制定衡量这些影响因素的标准。
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E-Commerce Cross-Border and Domestic Dynamics: Decision Tree and Spatial Insights on Seller Origin Impact
Despite the cross-border availability of almost all goods and services online due to global Internet access, the domestic origin of sellers remains significant. This study examines the preferences for domestic versus cross-border goods and services in online purchases in the EU online market from 2020 to 2023. We use quantitative methods including ordinary least squares (OLS), decision trees, and spatial autocorrelation analysis. We find significant effects of currency, language(s), and Internet use on domestic online purchases, while cross-border online purchases are further influenced by prices and urbanization. Our analysis reveals patterns based on the origin of the seller: domestic, intra-EU, or non-EU seller. There is a strong preference for electronic goods and services, regardless of the seller’s origin, while physical goods show a decreasing preference from domestic to intra-EU and non-EU sellers. Limited geographical effects and spatial patterns in online retailing were found, with a trend towards domestic localization. These differences in e-commerce by seller origin are primarily driven by country-specific characteristics (language(s), currencies) rather than geographic distance. The variation in the purchase of goods and services also depends on their physical and electronic form, that is, digital ordering and/or digital delivery. The expansion of e-commerce and the importance of country-specific characteristics require the development of standards to measure these influences.
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