Development of Scenarios as Problem-Space Descriptions in Aerospace Conceptual Design

In the defense and security domain, scenarios are often descriptions of stakeholder needs, future events, and the environment. They are used for the elicitation of requirements in development of capabilities, organizations, and technical systems. In the conceptual design of aerospace applications, models of scenarios can also represent and communicate a problem-space, enabling trade-space exploration and system effectiveness robustness analysis, which provide valuable input to decision-makers. This study utilizes design science to develop a scenario framework for solution-agnostic representations of a problem-space for use in aerospace conceptual design- and trade-space exploration. A scenario ontology is developed, describing the constituent concepts of scenarios and their relationships, followed by a method for creating scenarios and evaluating their validity. Within the EU project COLOSSUS, it is demonstrated that the scenario framework has utility both for market-pull and technology-push conceptual design. Establishing an ontology for scenarios and a method for creating them as well as evaluating their validity is another step in improving the aerospace conceptual design phase.