世界各国消除可持续能源发展障碍的改革成效

Olena Dobrovolska, Knut Schmidtke, Julia Krause, Olena Matukhno, Arne Cierjacks
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摘要

制定能源行业改革的战略和策略需要确定基准国家,这些国家的经验可以作为对改革的主要目标进行量化评估的基础。欧盟国家 2010-2021 年能源改革综合评估的结果可以作为此类决策的基础。本研究旨在根据综合指标对这些国家进行分组,并确定各自国家在进入另一分组时需要取得进展的具体方向。因此,根据线性模型、菲什伯恩公式和方差分析,将 10 个能源发展指标合并为一个单一指标,以描述能源改革的有效性(例如,2021 年,该指标在奥地利(0.612)、德国(0.644)和法国(0.620)最高;在拉脱维亚(0.383)和克罗地亚(0.369)最低)。根据这一指标,使用 k-means 方法对各国进行了分组。形成了四个聚类:最高的第一个聚类(奥地利、德国、法国、西班牙、瑞典和卢森堡)的代表是所有欧盟国家的战略基准,其他聚类的代表是较低聚类国家的战术基准。我们计算了所有 10 个能源发展指标的平均值。这些指标的低值表明,在进行改革时应优先考虑这一方向,而在制定战略和战术任务(向更高集群过渡或实现本集群的平均值)时,可将其量化估计值作为具体目标。
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Effectiveness of reforms to eliminate obstacles in the development of sustainable energy in different countries of the world
The development of strategy and tactics for reforms in the energy industry involves the identification of benchmark countries whose experience can form the basis of a quantitative assessment of the main targets of the reforms. The basis for such decisions can be the results of the integrated assessment of energy reforms in the EU countries for 2010–2021. This study aims to cluster these countries according to the integral indicator and determine specific directions in which the respective country needs to make progress in moving to another cluster. Thus, based on a linear model, the Fishburn formula, and variance analysis, 10 energy development indicators were combined into a single indicator that characterizes the effectiveness of energy reforms (for example, in 2021, it was the highest in Austria (0.612), Germany (0.644), and France (0.620); the lowest – in Latvia (0.383) and Croatia (0.369)). Based on this indicator, countries were clustered using the k-means method. Four clusters were formed: representatives of the highest first (Austria, Germany, France, Spain, Sweden, and Luxembourg) are strategic benchmarks for all EU countries, and representatives of other clusters are tactical benchmarks for countries from lower clusters. The average values of all 10 indicators of energy development were calculated. Their low values are a sign that this direction should be a priority when carrying out reforms, and their quantitative estimates can be used as specific targets when setting strategic and tactical tasks (transition to a higher cluster or achieving average values in one’s cluster). AcknowledgmentThe research was funded by a Fellowship agreement for a research fellowship in the framework of the 11th funding round within the Philipp Schwartz Initiative of the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.
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