{"title":"农产品市场对俄罗斯退出谷物协议的反应","authors":"Sandro Steinbach, Yasin Yildirim","doi":"10.1111/1477-9552.12611","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper assesses the response of agricultural commodity markets to Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI). Employing daily commodity-level data and event study methods, we analyse the impact on seven agricultural commodities and four key market metrics, including futures prices, historical and implied volatility, and speculative pressure. Our findings show a statistically insignificant increase of 1.1% in agricultural futures prices within the first seven trading days following the BSGI termination. In the following days, futures prices began to decline, eventually returning to levels below those observed before the withdrawal, a pattern further underscored by our implied volatility analysis. While there is no evidence of heightened speculation, we find some evidence for treatment differences across agricultural commodities. These findings suggest that traders did not believe in the likelihood of a blockade of Black Sea grain shipments.</p>","PeriodicalId":14994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Agricultural commodity market response to Russia's withdrawal from the grain deal\",\"authors\":\"Sandro Steinbach, Yasin Yildirim\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/1477-9552.12611\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>This paper assesses the response of agricultural commodity markets to Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI). Employing daily commodity-level data and event study methods, we analyse the impact on seven agricultural commodities and four key market metrics, including futures prices, historical and implied volatility, and speculative pressure. Our findings show a statistically insignificant increase of 1.1% in agricultural futures prices within the first seven trading days following the BSGI termination. In the following days, futures prices began to decline, eventually returning to levels below those observed before the withdrawal, a pattern further underscored by our implied volatility analysis. While there is no evidence of heightened speculation, we find some evidence for treatment differences across agricultural commodities. These findings suggest that traders did not believe in the likelihood of a blockade of Black Sea grain shipments.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":14994,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Agricultural Economics\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-16\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Agricultural Economics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1477-9552.12611\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Agricultural Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1477-9552.12611","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Agricultural commodity market response to Russia's withdrawal from the grain deal
This paper assesses the response of agricultural commodity markets to Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI). Employing daily commodity-level data and event study methods, we analyse the impact on seven agricultural commodities and four key market metrics, including futures prices, historical and implied volatility, and speculative pressure. Our findings show a statistically insignificant increase of 1.1% in agricultural futures prices within the first seven trading days following the BSGI termination. In the following days, futures prices began to decline, eventually returning to levels below those observed before the withdrawal, a pattern further underscored by our implied volatility analysis. While there is no evidence of heightened speculation, we find some evidence for treatment differences across agricultural commodities. These findings suggest that traders did not believe in the likelihood of a blockade of Black Sea grain shipments.
期刊介绍:
Published on behalf of the Agricultural Economics Society, the Journal of Agricultural Economics is a leading international professional journal, providing a forum for research into agricultural economics and related disciplines such as statistics, marketing, business management, politics, history and sociology, and their application to issues in the agricultural, food, and related industries; rural communities, and the environment.
Each issue of the JAE contains articles, notes and book reviews as well as information relating to the Agricultural Economics Society. Published 3 times a year, it is received by members and institutional subscribers in 69 countries. With contributions from leading international scholars, the JAE is a leading citation for agricultural economics and policy. Published articles either deal with new developments in research and methods of analysis, or apply existing methods and techniques to new problems and situations which are of general interest to the Journal’s international readership.