Trend in predictive factors of choledocholithiasis: the key to the management of pediatric patients with suspected gallstones.

Objectives: To reduce the overuse of magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography and the rates of non-therapeutic endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography in pediatric patients suspected of choledocholithiasis.

Materials and methods: Retrospective study of patients suspected of choledocholithiasis between January 2010 and June 2023. Patients with cholangitis or two or more of the following predictive factors of choledocholithiasis in initial laboratory tests and ultrasound were categorized as high-risk group: total bilirubin level ≥ 2 mg/dl, common bile duct > 6 millimeters on ultrasound; and detection of choledocholithiasis by ultrasound. Patients were recategorized according to the results of the second set of laboratory and ultrasound analysis. Confirmatory modalities (magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography, endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography, and/or intraoperative cholangiography) were used to evaluate the presence of choledocholithiasis. Finally, we assessed the predictive capability of both the initial high-risk group and the group after recategorization.

Results: A total of 129 patients were included. After initial studies, 72 (55.8%) patients were classified into the high-risk group. After recategorization, only 29 (22.5%) patients were included in this group. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and diagnostic accuracy of the initial high-risk group were 89.3%, 53.5%, 34.7%, 94.7%, and 61.2%, respectively, while after recategorization, they were 82.1%, 94.1%, 79.3%, 95.0%, and 91.5%, respectively.

Conclusions: Recategorization of the risk of choledocholithiasis would significantly improve the diagnostic accuracy of choledocholithiasis and help reduce the overuse of more complex and unnecessary studies/procedures.