Breeding habitat loss linked to declines in Rufous Hummingbirds

Habitat loss is the primary driver of biodiversity decline worldwide, but it remains unknown how land-cover change and, in general, habitat loss impact many migratory species, such as the Rufous Hummingbird (Selasphorus rufus). Here, we gathered 5115 occurrence records for the Rufous Hummingbird from professional and citizen-science data sets and parameterized species distribution models with four bioclimatic variables and two Landsat satellite spectral reflectance bands. We calculated the population change and change in the potential distribution of the Rufous Hummingbird across its breeding range in the Pacific Northwest of North America over the last 36 yr (1985–2021). Back-casting habitat suitability predictions over time, we provide the first quantifications of breeding habitat change for the Rufous Hummingbird, which has exhibited precipitous declines over the past two decades. Furthermore, we evaluated links between modeled habitat suitability, population abundance, and trends with a route-level analysis of Breeding Bird Survey data. We found notable habitat loss occurring in Bird Conservation Regions along the Pacific coast where the species is most abundant (54% and 34% decreases in suitable habitat area), with habitat loss in coastal regions linked to population decline. In contrast, we detected habitat gains in regions along the interior, northeastern edges of the breeding range (160% and 85% increases in suitable habitat area). However, increasing suitability does not guarantee species colonization of new habitat. Our results indicate the need to further investigate drivers of habitat loss, such as intensive forestry and suppression of early seral habitat, along the Pacific coast. Our modeling approach can be applied to efficiently detect and quantify habitat loss over time for a variety of taxa.

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