Estimating changes in distribution trend of alien birds in urban areas using citizen science data

Urban ecosystems are suitable for the introduction and spread of alien bird species, and early detection of their establishment and expansion is crucial to reduce potential negative impacts. In this context, the use of opportunistic citizen science data can have considerable advantages in relation to conventional scientific approaches. We gathered records of parakeets and parrots (Psittaciformes) and mynas and starlings (Sturnidae) for the urban area of Lisbon (Portugal) from the eBird database. We used this opportunistic citizen science data to document the establishment and expansion and to estimate distribution trends of alien bird species in urban ecosystems. In the last decade there has been a considerable increase in the amount of opportunistic citizen science data available in eBird for our study area. The probability of presence of the Senegal parrot, rose-ringed parakeet, blue-crowned parakeet, and crested myna was positively influenced by the number of lists. For the rose-ringed parakeet, blue-crowned parakeet, and crested myna, the year positively influenced the probability of presence, suggesting an increase in distribution range. We observed that spatio-temporal variations in effort associated to opportunistic citizen science data sources may generate bias in trend estimates, and therefore we recommend the effort should always be accounted for. Our approach agreed with the documented expansion of alien bird species in the study area, supporting the potential usefulness of opportunistic citizen science in providing early detection on biological invasions in urban ecosystems, particularly where this is the best or the only source of information available.