利用深度学习检测资产价格泡沫

IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Mathematical Finance Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI:10.1111/mafi.12443
Francesca Biagini, Lukas Gonon, Andrea Mazzon, Thilo Meyer‐Brandis
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文采用深度学习技术,利用观测到的看涨期权价格检测金融资产泡沫。所提出的算法具有广泛的适用性,且与模型无关。我们通过数值实验测试了我们的方法在各种模型中的准确性,并将其应用于科技股的市场数据,以评估是否存在资产价格泡沫。在资产价格泡沫下看涨期权定价的给定条件下,我们能够为正连续随机资产价格过程提供我们方法的理论基础。当这一条件不满足时,我们将重点关注局部波动模型。为此,我们给出了一个新的必要条件和充分条件,即具有时间依赖性局部波动函数的过程是严格的局部马氏过程。
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Detecting asset price bubbles using deep learning
In this paper, we employ deep learning techniques to detect financial asset bubbles by using observed call option prices. The proposed algorithm is widely applicable and model‐independent. We test the accuracy of our methodology in numerical experiments within a wide range of models and apply it to market data of tech stocks in order to assess if asset price bubbles are present. Under a given condition on the pricing of call options under asset price bubbles, we are able to provide a theoretical foundation of our approach for positive and continuous stochastic asset price processes. When such a condition is not satisfied, we focus on local volatility models. To this purpose, we give a new necessary and sufficient condition for a process with time‐dependent local volatility function to be a strict local martingale.
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来源期刊
Mathematical Finance
Mathematical Finance 数学-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
6.20%
发文量
27
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Mathematical Finance seeks to publish original research articles focused on the development and application of novel mathematical and statistical methods for the analysis of financial problems. The journal welcomes contributions on new statistical methods for the analysis of financial problems. Empirical results will be appropriate to the extent that they illustrate a statistical technique, validate a model or provide insight into a financial problem. Papers whose main contribution rests on empirical results derived with standard approaches will not be considered.
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