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Designing stablecoins 设计稳定币
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI: 10.1111/mafi.12445
Yizhou Cao, Min Dai, Steven Kou, Lewei Li, Chen Yang
Existing cryptocurrencies are too volatile to be used as currencies for daily payments. Stablecoins, which are cryptocurrencies pegged to other stable financial assets such as the US dollar, are desirable for payments within blockchain networks, whereby being often called the “Holy Grail of cryptocurrency.” By using the option pricing theory and the Ethereum platform that allows running smart contracts, we design several dual‐class structures that are written on the ETH cryptocurrency and offer a fixed‐income crypto asset (Class A coin), a stablecoin (Class A′ coin) pegged to a traditional currency, and leveraged investment instruments (Class B and B′ coins). Our investigation of the values of stablecoins in the presence of jump risk and black swan‐type events shows the robustness of the design. The design has been implemented on the Ethereum platform.
现有的加密货币波动性太大,无法用作日常支付货币。稳定币是与美元等其他稳定金融资产挂钩的加密货币,是区块链网络中理想的支付货币,因此常被称为 "加密货币的圣杯"。通过利用期权定价理论和允许运行智能合约的以太坊平台,我们设计了几种以以太坊加密货币为基础的双类结构,提供固定收益加密资产(A 类币)、与传统货币挂钩的稳定币(A′类币)和杠杆投资工具(B 类币和 B′类币)。我们对稳定币在跳跃风险和黑天鹅事件下的价值进行了调查,结果显示了该设计的稳健性。该设计已在以太坊平台上实现。
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引用次数: 0
Systemic risk in markets with multiple central counterparties 多个中央交易对手市场的系统风险
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-08-23 DOI: 10.1111/mafi.12446
Luitgard Anna Maria Veraart, Iñaki Aldasoro
We provide a framework for modeling risk and quantifying payment shortfalls in cleared markets with multiple central counterparties (CCPs). Building on the stylized fact that clearing membership is shared among CCPs, we develop a modeling framework that captures the interconnectedness of CCPs and clearing members. We illustrate stress transmission mechanisms using simple examples as well as empirical evidence based on calibrated data. Furthermore, we show how stress mitigation tools such as variation margin gains haircutting by one CCP can have spillover effects on other CCPs. The framework can be used to enhance CCP stress‐testing, which currently relies on the “Cover 2” standard requiring CCPs to be able to withstand the default of their two largest clearing members. We show that who these two clearing members are can be significantly affected if one considers higher‐order effects arising from interconnectedness through shared clearing membership. Looking at the full network of CCPs and shared clearing members is, therefore, important from a financial stability perspective.
我们为多个中央对手方(CCP)的清算市场提供了一个风险建模和支付缺口量化框架。基于 CCP 之间共享清算成员这一典型事实,我们建立了一个模型框架,以捕捉 CCP 和清算成员之间的相互关联性。我们使用简单的示例以及基于校准数据的经验证据来说明压力传导机制。此外,我们还展示了压力缓解工具(如一家 CCP 的变动保证金收益扣减)如何对其他 CCP 产生溢出效应。该框架可用于加强中央交易对手委员会的压力测试,目前的压力测试依赖于 "覆盖 2 "标准,该标准要求中央交易对手委员会能够承受其两个最大清算成员的违约。我们的研究表明,如果考虑到通过共享清算成员资格的相互关联性所产生的高阶效应,这两个清算成员是谁会受到很大影响。因此,从金融稳定的角度来看,研究中央交易对手委员会和共享清算成员的整个网络非常重要。
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引用次数: 0
Joint calibration to SPX and VIX options with signature‐based models 利用基于签名的模型对 SPX 和 VIX 期权进行联合校准
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-31 DOI: 10.1111/mafi.12442
Christa Cuchiero, Guido Gazzani, Janka Möller, Sara Svaluto‐Ferro
We consider a stochastic volatility model where the dynamics of the volatility are described by a linear function of the (time extended) signature of a primary process which is supposed to be a polynomial diffusion. We obtain closed form expressions for the VIX squared, exploiting the fact that the truncated signature of a polynomial diffusion is again a polynomial diffusion. Adding to such a primary process the Brownian motion driving the stock price, allows then to express both the log‐price and the VIX squared as linear functions of the signature of the corresponding augmented process. This feature can then be efficiently used for pricing and calibration purposes. Indeed, as the signature samples can be easily precomputed, the calibration task can be split into an offline sampling and a standard optimization. We also propose a Fourier pricing approach for both VIX and SPX options exploiting that the signature of the augmented primary process is an infinite dimensional affine process. For both the SPX and VIX options we obtain highly accurate calibration results, showing that this model class allows to solve the joint calibration problem without adding jumps or rough volatility.
我们考虑了一个随机波动率模型,在这个模型中,波动率的动态是由一个主过程的(时间扩展)特征的线性函数来描述的,而这个主过程应该是一个多项式扩散过程。利用多项式扩散的截断特征也是多项式扩散这一事实,我们得到了 VIX 平方的封闭式表达式。将驱动股价的布朗运动添加到这样一个主过程中,就可以将对数价格和 VIX 平方表达为相应增强过程特征的线性函数。这一特征可以有效地用于定价和校准。事实上,由于特征样本可以很容易地预先计算,校准任务可以分为离线采样和标准优化。我们还提出了一种针对 VIX 和 SPX 期权的傅立叶定价方法,利用了增强主过程的特征是一个无限维仿射过程这一特点。对于 SPX 和 VIX 期权,我们都获得了高度精确的校准结果,表明该模型类别可以在不添加跳跃或粗略波动的情况下解决联合校准问题。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic equilibrium with insider information and general uninformed agent utility 具有内幕信息和一般无信息代理效用的动态均衡
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.1111/mafi.12444
Jerome Detemple, Scott Robertson
We study a continuous time economy where agents have asymmetric information. The informed agent (“”), at time zero, receives a private signal about the risky assets' terminal payoff , while the uninformed agent (“”) has no private signal. is an arbitrary payoff function, and follows a time‐homogeneous diffusion. Crucially, we allow to have von Neumann–Morgenstern preferences with a general utility function on satisfying the standard conditions. This extends previous constructions of equilibria with asymmetric information used when all agents have exponential utilities and enables us to study the impact of U's initial share endowment on equilibrium. To allow for to have general preferences, we introduce a new method to prove existence of a partial communication equilibrium (PCE), where at time 0, receives a less‐informative signal than . In the single asset case, this signal is recoverable by viewing the equilibrium price process over an arbitrarily short period of time, and hence the PCE is a dynamic noisy rational expectations equilibrium. Lastly, when has power (constant relative risk aversion) utility, we identify the equilibrium price in the small and large risk aversion limits.
我们研究的是一个代理人信息不对称的连续时间经济。知情者("")在零时收到关于风险资产最终收益的私人信号,而不知情者("")没有私人信号。最重要的是,我们允许冯-诺依曼-摩根斯特恩偏好与满足标准条件的一般效用函数。这就扩展了以往所有代理人都具有指数效用时的非对称信息均衡构造,并使我们能够研究 U 的初始股份禀赋对均衡的影响。为了允许存在一般偏好,我们引入了一种新方法来证明部分沟通均衡(PCE)的存在,即在 0 时,U 接收到的信息量小于 。 在单一资产的情况下,通过观察任意短时间内的均衡价格过程,这一信号是可以恢复的,因此,PCE 是一种动态的有噪声理性预期均衡。最后,当具有功率(相对风险规避恒定)效用时,我们可以确定小风险规避和大风险规避极限下的均衡价格。
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引用次数: 0
Detecting asset price bubbles using deep learning 利用深度学习检测资产价格泡沫
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.1111/mafi.12443
Francesca Biagini, Lukas Gonon, Andrea Mazzon, Thilo Meyer‐Brandis
In this paper, we employ deep learning techniques to detect financial asset bubbles by using observed call option prices. The proposed algorithm is widely applicable and model‐independent. We test the accuracy of our methodology in numerical experiments within a wide range of models and apply it to market data of tech stocks in order to assess if asset price bubbles are present. Under a given condition on the pricing of call options under asset price bubbles, we are able to provide a theoretical foundation of our approach for positive and continuous stochastic asset price processes. When such a condition is not satisfied, we focus on local volatility models. To this purpose, we give a new necessary and sufficient condition for a process with time‐dependent local volatility function to be a strict local martingale.
本文采用深度学习技术,利用观测到的看涨期权价格检测金融资产泡沫。所提出的算法具有广泛的适用性,且与模型无关。我们通过数值实验测试了我们的方法在各种模型中的准确性,并将其应用于科技股的市场数据,以评估是否存在资产价格泡沫。在资产价格泡沫下看涨期权定价的给定条件下,我们能够为正连续随机资产价格过程提供我们方法的理论基础。当这一条件不满足时,我们将重点关注局部波动模型。为此,我们给出了一个新的必要条件和充分条件,即具有时间依赖性局部波动函数的过程是严格的局部马氏过程。
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引用次数: 0
Corporate debt value under transition scenario uncertainty 过渡情景不确定情况下的公司债务价值
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1111/mafi.12441
Theo Le Guenedal, Peter Tankov
We develop a structural model for pricing a defaultable bond issued by a company subject to climate transition risk. We assume that the magnitude of the transition risk impacts depends on a transition scenario, which is initially unknown but is progressively revealed through the observation of the carbon tax trajectory. The bond price, credit spread, and optimal default/restructuring thresholds are then expressed as function of the firm's revenue level and the carbon tax. Numerical implementation of the resulting formulas is discussed and illustrated using real data. Our results show that under transition scenario uncertainty, carbon tax adjustments are more likely to trigger a default than when the true scenario is known because after each adjustment, the more environmentally stringent scenario becomes more likely. We also find that faster discovery of scenario information leads to higher credit spreads since better information allows the shareholders to optimize the timing of default, increasing the value of default option and decreasing the bond price. As an extension, we consider the situation where the company may invest into abatement technology, increasing the value of both the share price and the bond price.
我们建立了一个结构模型,用于为受气候过渡风险影响的公司发行的可违约债券定价。我们假定过渡风险影响的大小取决于过渡情景,而过渡情景最初是未知的,但会通过观察碳税轨迹逐步显现。然后,债券价格、信用利差和最佳违约/重组阈值都是企业收入水平和碳税的函数。我们使用真实数据讨论并说明了计算公式的数值实现。我们的结果表明,在过渡方案不确定的情况下,碳税调整比真实方案已知时更有可能触发违约,因为每次调整后,更严格的环境方案变得更有可能。我们还发现,更快地发现情景信息会导致更高的信用利差,因为更好的信息可以让股东优化违约时机,增加违约期权的价值,降低债券价格。作为延伸,我们考虑了公司可能投资于减排技术的情况,从而提高股价和债券价格的价值。
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引用次数: 0
Distortion risk measures: Prudence, coherence, and the expected shortfall 扭曲风险措施:审慎性、一致性和预期差额
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-05-27 DOI: 10.1111/mafi.12435
Massimiliano Amarante, Felix-Benedikt Liebrich

Distortion risk measures (DRM) are risk measures that are law invariant and comonotonic additive. The present paper is an extensive inquiry into this class of risk measures in light of new ideas such as qualitative robustness, prudence and no reward for concentration, and tail relevance. Results include several characterizations of prudent DRMs, a novel representation of coherent DRMs as well as an axiomatization of the Expected Shortfall alternative to the one recently provided by Wang and Zitikis. By linking the two axiomatizations, the paper provides a new perspective on the idea of no reward for concentration. The paper also contains results of independent interest such as the lower semicontinuity with respect to convergence in distribution of the Haezendonck–Goovaerts risk measures, the extension of non-necessarily convex risk measures as well as the structure of the core of a general submodular distortion.

失真风险度量(DRM)是一种具有法律不变性和顺相加性的风险度量。本文从定性稳健性、审慎、集中无回报和尾部相关性等新观点出发,对这一类风险度量进行了广泛探究。研究结果包括对审慎 DRM 的几种描述、一致性 DRM 的一种新表述,以及替代 Wang 和 Zitikis 最近提出的预期短缺公理化。通过将这两种公理化联系起来,本文为 "集中无回报 "的观点提供了一个新的视角。本文还包含了一些独立的结果,如 Haezendonck-Goovaerts 风险度量分布收敛的下半连续性、非必要凸风险度量的扩展以及一般亚模态变形的核心结构。
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引用次数: 0
Stability of the Epstein–Zin problem 爱泼斯坦-津问题的稳定性
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-05-24 DOI: 10.1111/mafi.12434
Michael Monoyios, Oleksii Mostovyi

We investigate the stability of the Epstein–Zin problem with respect to small distortions in the dynamics of the traded securities. We work in incomplete market model settings, where our parametrization of perturbations allows for joint distortions in returns and volatility of the risky assets and the interest rate. Considering empirically the most relevant specifications of risk aversion and elasticity of intertemporal substitution, we provide a condition that guarantees the convexity of the domain of the underlying problem and results in the existence and uniqueness of a solution to it. Then, we prove the convergence of the optimal consumption streams, the associated wealth processes, the indirect utility processes, and the value functions in the limit when the model perturbations vanish.

我们研究了爱泼斯坦-津(Epstein-Zin)问题在交易证券动态发生微小扭曲时的稳定性。我们在不完全市场模型的背景下进行研究,在这种情况下,我们的扰动参数化允许风险资产和利率的收益和波动性出现联合扭曲。考虑到风险规避和跨期替代弹性的最相关的经验规范,我们提供了一个条件,保证了基本问题域的凸性,并导致其解的存在性和唯一性。然后,我们证明了当模型扰动消失时,最优消费流、相关财富过程、间接效用过程和价值函数在极限上的收敛性。
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引用次数: 0
Put–Call Parities, absence of arbitrage opportunities, and nonlinear pricing rules 认沽-认购平价、缺乏套利机会和非线性定价规则
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-03-23 DOI: 10.1111/mafi.12433
Lorenzo Bastianello, Alain Chateauneuf, Bernard Cornet

When prices of assets traded in a financial market are determined by nonlinear pricing rules, different parities between call and put options have been considered. We show that, under monotonicity, parities between call and put options and discount certificates characterize ambiguity-sensitive (Choquet and/or Šipoš) pricing rules, that is, pricing rules that can be represented via discounted expectations with respect to non-additive probability measures. We analyze how nonadditivity relates to arbitrage opportunities and we give necessary and sufficient conditions for Choquet and Šipoš pricing rules to be arbitrage free. Finally, we identify violations of the Call-Put Parity with the presence of bid–ask spreads.

当金融市场上交易的资产价格由非线性定价规则决定时,看涨期权和看跌期权之间的不同平价就被考虑在内。我们的研究表明,在单调性条件下,看涨期权和看跌期权之间的平价以及贴现证书是对模糊性敏感的(Choquet 和/或 ipoš)定价规则的特征,也就是说,这些定价规则可以通过关于非加成概率度量的贴现期望来表示。我们分析了非可加性与套利机会的关系,并给出了使 Choquet 和 ipoš 定价规则无套利的必要条件和充分条件。最后,我们确定了存在买卖价差时违反看涨-看跌平价的情况。
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引用次数: 0
The rough Hawkes Heston stochastic volatility model 粗略霍克斯-赫斯顿随机波动模型
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-03-02 DOI: 10.1111/mafi.12432
Alessandro Bondi, Sergio Pulido, Simone Scotti

We study an extension of the Heston stochastic volatility model that incorporates rough volatility and jump clustering phenomena. In our model, named the rough Hawkes Heston stochastic volatility model, the spot variance is a rough Hawkes-type process proportional to the intensity process of the jump component appearing in the dynamics of the spot variance itself and the log returns. The model belongs to the class of affine Volterra models. In particular, the Fourier-Laplace transform of the log returns and the square of the volatility index can be computed explicitly in terms of solutions of deterministic Riccati-Volterra equations, which can be efficiently approximated using a multi-factor approximation technique. We calibrate a parsimonious specification of our model characterized by a power kernel and an exponential law for the jumps. We show that our parsimonious setup is able to simultaneously capture, with a high precision, the behavior of the implied volatility smile for both S&P 500 and VIX options. In particular, we observe that in our setting the usual shift in the implied volatility of VIX options is explained by a very low value of the power in the kernel. Our findings demonstrate the relevance, under an affine framework, of rough volatility and self-exciting jumps in order to capture the joint evolution of the S&P 500 and VIX.

我们研究了海斯顿随机波动率模型的扩展,该模型包含了粗略波动率和跳跃聚类现象。我们的模型被命名为粗糙霍克斯-赫斯顿随机波动率模型,在这个模型中,现货方差是一个粗糙霍克斯型过程,与现货方差本身和对数收益动态中出现的跳跃分量的强度过程成正比。该模型属于仿射 Volterra 模型。特别是,对数收益率的傅立叶-拉普拉斯变换和波动率指数的平方可以根据确定性里卡提-沃尔特拉方程的解来明确计算,而这些解可以使用多因子近似技术有效地近似。我们校准了以幂核和指数规律为特征的模型简约规范。我们的研究表明,我们的简化设置能够同时高精度地捕捉 S&P 500 和 VIX 期权的隐含波动率微笑行为。特别是,我们观察到,在我们的设置中,VIX 期权隐含波动率的通常变化是由核中非常低的幂值解释的。我们的研究结果表明,在仿射框架下,为了捕捉 S&P 500 指数和 VIX 指数的联合演化,粗略波动率和自激跳跃是相关的。
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引用次数: 0
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Mathematical Finance
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