Factors influencing moose harvest success and hunter effort in Ontario, Canada

The management of big game harvest is important for maintaining viable populations and providing recreational opportunities to hunters. There are numerous strategies used by management agencies to achieve these goals, but they are complicated by variation in factors that are difficult to control, such as harvest success rates. For harvest management decisions to have the desired effect on big game populations, the mechanisms affecting factors like harvest success rates need to be properly understood. We used Bayesian hierarchical survival models to explore the factors influencing spatial and temporal variation in moose (Alces alces) harvest success rates in Ontario, Canada. We estimated harvest success rates from hunter reports from 59 Wildlife Management Units from 2000–2019. Overall, harvest success rates were primarily influenced by variables under the control of management agencies, such as season length and tag allocations, but they were also affected by external factors like moose density and weather. Season length, while positively related to harvest success for shorter seasons (e.g., <25 days), exhibited limited influence for longer seasons (>25 days). Our results were largely consistent across spatial and temporal scales, with a similarly strong positive effect of moose density and negative effect of tag allocation between management units and across years. This study emphasizes the need for managers to recognize the inherent uncertainty in harvest outcomes beyond their control and the importance of open communication with hunters in achieving effective harvest management, while offering concrete pathways for influencing harvest success.