预算是如何变化的:时点、趋势和超级趋势

IF 3.8 3区 管理学 Q1 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION Policy Sciences Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI:10.1007/s11077-024-09542-9
Ehud Segal, Frank R. Baumgartner
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引用次数: 0

摘要

脉冲均衡理论(PET)认为,政策变化主要是通过渐进式运动发生的,很少有剧烈变化的时期。与预算编制相关的大量实证文献都支持这一观点,但几乎所有的实证检验都侧重于研究年度变化的分布情况,从而忽略了时间顺序。在本文中,我们将重点放在时间因素上。我们使用与以往正则表达式 PET 研究相同的数据库,探讨多年趋势,而不仅仅是年度观察结果。为了进行分析,我们在一个涵盖 1947 年至 2014 年的美国预算分配数据集上确定了一系列方向性变化(同时允许一年的方向性变化,如果这些变化在下一年被立即抵消的话),其中有 60 个支出类别,这些类别的定义在时间上是一致的,并根据通货膨胀进行了调整。然后,我们评估了将年度变化趋势序列的更长时间单元纳入分析时 PET 发现的稳健性。我们发现,近 65% 的变化发生在 4 年或更长的时间序列中。尽管如此,PET 文献中标志性的高峰度模式在这些序列和较短序列中同样存在。此外,在增长和趋势性序列中,我们发现 21% 的序列产生了 80% 的正预算变化。在这些序列中,我们发现了一小部分 "超级趋势",它们在总体变化中占了很大份额。我们的结论是,扩大研究预算变化的方法,将长期动态纳入其中,有助于更好地理解政策变化,但这些研究结果仍与 PET 的观点一致。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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How budgets change: punctuations, trends, and super-trends

Punctuated equilibrium theory (PET) describes policy change as occurring mostly through incremental movements with infrequent periods of dramatic change. An impressive body of empirical literature relating to budgeting supports this view, but virtually all empirical tests have focused on examining distributions of annual changes, thus nullifying chronology. In this article, we focus on the time element. Using the same databases as previously used in canonical PET studies, we explore multi-year trends, not only annual observations. For our analyses, we identify directional series of changes (while allowing for one-year changes in direction if these are immediately offset in the following year) on a U.S. budget distribution dataset covering the period of 1947 through 2014, with 60 categories of spending consistently defined over time and adjusted for inflation. We then assess the robustness of the PET findings when incorporating a longer time units of trending series of annual changes into the analysis. We find that almost 65% of changes occur in series of 4 years or more. Nonetheless, the signature PET literature pattern of high kurtosis is equally present in these series as well as in shorter series. Moreover, within growing and trending series, we find that 21% of these series generate 80% of positive budget change. Within these series, we identify a small group of “super-trends” that account for a large share of the overall change. We conclude that expanding methodologies for the study of budgetary change to incorporate longer-term dynamics helps to better understand policy change, but such findings remain consistent with the PET perspective.

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来源期刊
Policy Sciences
Policy Sciences Multiple-
CiteScore
9.70
自引率
9.40%
发文量
32
期刊介绍: The policy sciences are distinctive within the policy movement in that they embrace the scholarly traditions innovated and elaborated by Harold D. Lasswell and Myres S. McDougal. Within these pages we provide space for approaches that are problem-oriented, contextual, and multi-method in orientation. There are many other journals in which authors can take top-down, deductive, and large-sample approach or adopt a primarily theoretical focus. Policy Sciences encourages systematic and empirical investigations in which problems are clearly identified from a practical and theoretical perspective, are well situated in the extant literature, and are investigated utilizing methodologies compatible with contextual, as opposed to reductionist, understandings. We tend not to publish pieces that are solely theoretical, but favor works in which the applied policy lessons are clearly articulated. Policy Sciences favors, but does not publish exclusively, works that either explicitly or implicitly utilize the policy sciences framework. The policy sciences can be applied to articles with greater or lesser intensity to accommodate the focus of an author’s work. At the minimum, this means taking a problem oriented, multi-method or contextual approach. At the fullest expression, it may mean leveraging central theory or explicitly applying aspects of the framework, which is comprised of three principal dimensions: (1) social process, which is mapped in terms of participants, perspectives, situations, base values, strategies, outcomes and effects, with values (power, wealth, enlightenment, skill, rectitude, respect, well-being, and affection) being the key elements in understanding participants’ behaviors and interactions; (2) decision process, which is mapped in terms of seven functions—intelligence, promotion, prescription, invocation, application, termination, and appraisal; and (3) problem orientation, which comprises the intellectual tasks of clarifying goals, describing trends, analyzing conditions, projecting developments, and inventing, evaluating, and selecting alternatives. There is a more extensive core literature that also applies and can be visited at the policy sciences website: http://www.policysciences.org/classicworks.cfm. In addition to articles that explicitly utilize the policy sciences framework, Policy Sciences has a long tradition of publishing papers that draw on various aspects of that framework and its central theory as well as high quality conceptual pieces that address key challenges, opportunities, or approaches in ways congruent with the perspective that this journal strives to maintain and extend.Officially cited as: Policy Sci
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