The potential role of insolation in the long-term climate evolution since the early Pleistocene

The distribution of insolation over time and space is a significant driver of climate change on orbital timescales. However, the influence of insolation on long-term climate evolution remains poorly understood due to the absence of a discernible long-term trend regulated by Earth's orbit. In this study, we present a sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) stack spanning the past 2 Myr, compiled from 26 millennial-resolved records obtained from the global ocean. The global average sea surface temperature (SST) reveals a 405-kyr cycle, as well as a gradual decrease of 2.34 ± 1.05 °C (1σ) from 2000 ka to 940 ka, followed by a period of relative stability. We introduce an index named the integral of annual mean insolation anomaly (IAMIA), which quantifies the continuous departure of annual mean insolation (AMI) from its “normal” cycle over a specific time interval. We find that the SST leads the variations in AMI and IAMIA at the 405-kyr band, intimating that the cycle evident in global SST does not originate from the changes of eccentricity but rather stems from harmonic or combination tones. Notably, IAMIA exhibits a fundamental shift at 935 ka, coinciding with the “900-ka event” observed in the SST. Modeling results support that the “900-ka event” could be driven by the change of cumulative insolation. Additionally, IAMIA underscores the important role of insolation in Pleistocene climate change on the long-term trend through the cumulative response of ocean heat content (OHC) to successive small step-wise insolation changes. Furthermore, we hypothesize that the fundamental changes of insolation around 935 ka, transitioning from a positive state characterized by substantial amplitude to a negative state typified by diminished amplitude, facilitated the onset and progression of the mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT). This investigation provides invaluable insights into the role of insolation in long-term climate evolution.