Carbon and water scarcity footprints of banana under current and future climate conditions in the Brazilian semiarid region

Climate change has become a global threat and a cause of uncertainty for numerous economic sectors, particularly agriculture. Several studies addressing the impacts of climate change can be found in the literature; however, studies on strategies to improve sustainability in orchards are scarce. Bananas are of great economic importance in tropical regions, and their production is characterized by high consumption of natural resources, increasing greenhouse gas emissions and environmental impacts. This study aimed to identify critical points in banana production, understand how they influence future footprints, and develop strategies to reduce current footprints. Life cycle assessment was used to estimate water scarcity (ISO 14046) and carbon (ISO 14067) footprints. Results are presented per 1 kg of banana. Primary data from 10-year averages were collected from farms located in the Lower Jaguaribe sub-basin. The results revealed that the carbon footprint ranged from 0.21 to 0.84 kg CO₂ eq kg⁻¹ in 2023, whereas the water scarcity footprint reached 1441 m³ eq kg⁻¹. Under the current scenario, yield improvement could reduce carbon footprint by up to 57.9%, and greater efficiency in water use could decrease water footprint by up to 77%. In 2055, projections suggest that improvements in irrigation could lead to reductions of 5% in carbon footprint and 24.9% in water scarcity footprint. The findings of this study highlight the importance of adopting a sustainable approach to banana production, emphasizing the need to improve natural resource management and promote conscious agricultural practices, such as no-till farming and polyculture, which favor carbon sequestration. The use of plants that perform biological nitrogen fixation can reduce the need for nitrogen fertilizers, in alignment with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Public policies focused on providing technical assistance to farmers are crucial for achieving environmentally sustainable production and enhancing resilience to climate change and water scarcity.