从全球危机看创新因素对各国社会经济发展的具体影响

IF 2.1 Q2 ECONOMICS Economies Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI:10.3390/economies12080190
Sergey Mikhailovich Vasin, Daria Mikhailovna Timokhina
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引用次数: 0

摘要

尽管冠状病毒大流行现在已经淡出人们的视线,但 COVID-19 引起的全球危机对全世界造成了最具破坏性的影响。鉴于这种突发的不确定事件有可能再次发生,因此必须明确其规律,并制定积极的措施,使各国提前做好应对相关事件的准备。受影响最严重的国家面临着企业破产增加、失业率和通货膨胀率上升、生产量下降以及国内生产总值(GDP)下降等问题。为了抵御这些社会经济后果,各国不得不采取一系列措施,其中加快创新发展就是其中之一。本文旨在根据全球创新指数(GII)的制度、人力资本和研究、基础设施、市场成熟度、商业成熟度、知识和技术产出以及创造性产出等支柱,评估国内生产总值的增长、通货膨胀率和失业率的下降对国家层面创新发展增长的依赖性。根据五种社会经济模式下 20 个国家的全球创新指数支柱发展水平和经济绩效指标数据,进行的研究分析涵盖 2019 年至 2022 年期间。通过描述性和比较性统计以及相关和回归分析,证明了创新发展是增加国内生产总值和降低通货膨胀的关键驱动力。要提高 GDP 值,应特别关注机构、人力资本和研究等 GII 支柱,而基础设施、人力资本和研究则是降低通货膨胀率的支柱。
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Specific Effect of Innovation Factors on Socioeconomic Development of Countries in View of the Global Crisis
Although the coronavirus pandemic has now faded into the background, the global crisis caused by COVID-19 has had the most devastating impacts worldwide. Given the potential relapse of such unexpected and uncertain events, it is vital to specify the patterns thereof and develop proactive measures for the countries to acquire an advanced readiness to deal with the related incidents. The most infected countries faced an increase in business bankruptcies, unemployment and inflation rates, low production volumes, and a decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). To withstand such socioeconomic consequences, the countries had to employ a number of measures, with innovation development acceleration being one. This paper aims to assess the dependency of an increase in GDP and a decrease in inflation and unemployment rates on the country-level growth of innovation development according to such Global Innovation Index (GII) pillars as institutions, human capital and research, infrastructure, market sophistication, business sophistication, knowledge and technology outputs, and creative outputs. The conducted research analysis covered the period from 2019 to 2022 based on the data for the GII pillar development level and economic performance indicators for 20 countries from five socioeconomic models. Descriptive and comparative statistics as well as correlation and regression analysis were used to prove the innovation development to be a key driver in increasing GDP and reducing inflation. To increase the GDP value, special attention should be paid to such GII pillars as institutions and human capital and research, while infrastructure and human capital and research are the pillars to reduce the inflation rates.
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来源期刊
Economies
Economies Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
4.00
自引率
11.50%
发文量
271
审稿时长
11 weeks
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