预测丑闻

IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS European Journal of Political Economy Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102588
Slade Mendenhall , Joshua Ingber
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引用次数: 0

摘要

尽管丑闻在现代政治中举足轻重,但直到最近才被作为政治经济学的研究课题。大部分文献关注丑闻对选举结果的影响,而关于内生丑闻的理论文献提出的预测和假设在很大程度上仍未得到验证。本文利用美国国会丑闻的原始数据集来检验其中的一些预测。本文特别关注政治对手的反对研究以及丑闻发布的战略时机。尽管文献中关于丑闻影响因素的理论论证很有说服力,但我们发现唯一对丑闻发生率有意义的预测因素是选举时机。
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Predicting scandal

Despite its salience in modern politics, scandal has only recently been treated as a subject of inquiry in political economy. Most of the literature has focused on scandal’s effects on electoral outcomes, while a theoretical literature on endogenous scandal has offered predictions and hypotheses that remain largely untested. This paper uses an original dataset of U.S. Congressional scandals to test some of those predictions. Special place is given to the role of opposition research by political opponents and the strategic timing of scandal release. Despite persuasive theoretical arguments in the literature as to factors that might affect scandal, we find the only meaningfully significant predictor of scandal incidence to be election timing.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
10.00%
发文量
106
期刊介绍: The aim of the European Journal of Political Economy is to disseminate original theoretical and empirical research on economic phenomena within a scope that encompasses collective decision making, political behavior, and the role of institutions. Contributions are invited from the international community of researchers. Manuscripts must be published in English. Starting 2008, the European Journal of Political Economy is indexed in the Social Sciences Citation Index published by Thomson Scientific (formerly ISI).
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