{"title":"预测丑闻","authors":"Slade Mendenhall , Joshua Ingber","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102588","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Despite its salience in modern politics, scandal has only recently been treated as a subject of inquiry in political economy. Most of the literature has focused on scandal’s effects on electoral outcomes, while a theoretical literature on endogenous scandal has offered predictions and hypotheses that remain largely untested. This paper uses an original dataset of U.S. Congressional scandals to test some of those predictions. Special place is given to the role of opposition research by political opponents and the strategic timing of scandal release. Despite persuasive theoretical arguments in the literature as to factors that might affect scandal, we find the only meaningfully significant predictor of scandal incidence to be election timing.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 102588"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Predicting scandal\",\"authors\":\"Slade Mendenhall , Joshua Ingber\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102588\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Despite its salience in modern politics, scandal has only recently been treated as a subject of inquiry in political economy. Most of the literature has focused on scandal’s effects on electoral outcomes, while a theoretical literature on endogenous scandal has offered predictions and hypotheses that remain largely untested. This paper uses an original dataset of U.S. Congressional scandals to test some of those predictions. Special place is given to the role of opposition research by political opponents and the strategic timing of scandal release. Despite persuasive theoretical arguments in the literature as to factors that might affect scandal, we find the only meaningfully significant predictor of scandal incidence to be election timing.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":51439,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"European Journal of Political Economy\",\"volume\":\"85 \",\"pages\":\"Article 102588\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-23\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"European Journal of Political Economy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268024000909\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"European Journal of Political Economy","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268024000909","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Despite its salience in modern politics, scandal has only recently been treated as a subject of inquiry in political economy. Most of the literature has focused on scandal’s effects on electoral outcomes, while a theoretical literature on endogenous scandal has offered predictions and hypotheses that remain largely untested. This paper uses an original dataset of U.S. Congressional scandals to test some of those predictions. Special place is given to the role of opposition research by political opponents and the strategic timing of scandal release. Despite persuasive theoretical arguments in the literature as to factors that might affect scandal, we find the only meaningfully significant predictor of scandal incidence to be election timing.
期刊介绍:
The aim of the European Journal of Political Economy is to disseminate original theoretical and empirical research on economic phenomena within a scope that encompasses collective decision making, political behavior, and the role of institutions. Contributions are invited from the international community of researchers. Manuscripts must be published in English. Starting 2008, the European Journal of Political Economy is indexed in the Social Sciences Citation Index published by Thomson Scientific (formerly ISI).