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Political alliances and trade: Europe in a polarized world 政治联盟与贸易:两极化世界中的欧洲
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102612
This study investigates how political alliances influence trade and welfare in Europe and major global economies amidst escalating geopolitical tensions. Utilizing a panel data approach, we assess the impact of military alliances on trade through structural gravity and staggered difference-in-difference methodologies. We further simulate the potential trade and welfare effects of the strengthening and disintegration of political alliances within blocs. Results reveal significant trade and welfare consequences stemming from the expansion or disintegration of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the establishment of a military alliance under the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). From a European point of view, our results suggest that the accession of new NATO members will bring economic benefits, while the US leaving NATO, or the deepening of the SCO, will bring negative trade and welfare effects. If a US exit from NATO triggers a disintegration of the alliance and the SCO creates a military alliance, this would lead to severe negative consequences for the EU. Notably, the study finds that the benefits of collective security provided by NATO substantially outweigh the costs associated with its 2% defence spending requirement.
本研究探讨了在地缘政治紧张局势不断升级的情况下,政治联盟如何影响欧洲和全球主要经济体的贸易和福利。我们利用面板数据方法,通过结构引力法和交错差分法评估军事联盟对贸易的影响。我们进一步模拟了集团内部政治联盟的加强和瓦解对贸易和福利的潜在影响。结果显示,北大西洋公约组织(NATO)的扩大或解体以及上海合作组织(SCO)军事联盟的建立都会对贸易和福利产生重大影响。从欧洲的角度来看,我们的研究结果表明,北约新成员的加入将带来经济利益,而美国退出北约或上海合作组织的深化将带来负面的贸易和福利影响。如果美国退出北约引发北约解体,上合组织建立军事联盟,这将给欧盟带来严重的负面影响。值得注意的是,研究发现北约提供的集体安全利益大大超过了其 2% 国防开支要求所带来的成本。
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引用次数: 0
Macroeconomic effects from media coverage of the China–U.S. trade war on selected EU countries 媒体报道中美贸易战对部分欧盟国家的宏观经济影响
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102611
The objective of this paper is to analyze the macroeconomic effects of media coverage related to the trade conflict between China and the U.S. for selected countries of the European Union. Our main aim is to evaluate whether media coverage constitutes a relevant transmission channel for macroeconomic effects. We evaluate the response of survey-based macroeconomic expectations, stock prices, and realized industrial production. Our analysis focuses on Germany, France, Italy, and Spain in order to allow for heterogeneous effects across major EU countries. We find significant effects on expectations, stock prices, and industrial production. Especially, a significantly negative effect on current account expectations is observed for three of the four considered EU countries (Germany, Italy, and Spain).
本文旨在分析与中美贸易冲突相关的媒体报道对欧盟部分国家宏观经济的影响。我们的主要目的是评估媒体报道是否构成宏观经济效应的相关传导渠道。我们评估了基于调查的宏观经济预期、股票价格和实际工业生产的反应。我们的分析侧重于德国、法国、意大利和西班牙,以考虑欧盟主要国家之间的异质性效应。我们发现了对预期、股票价格和工业生产的重大影响。特别是,在四个欧盟国家中的三个国家(德国、意大利和西班牙),经常账户预期受到了明显的负面影响。
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引用次数: 0
Beyond the party push: Gender differences in voters’ persuasion 超越政党推动:选民说服力中的性别差异
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102613

Despite ongoing efforts to bridge gender disparities, women continue to be underrepresented in political spheres. This paper proposes a novel explanation for the female disadvantage in electoral success, focusing on politicians’ capacity to broaden their electoral base and appeal to voters from opposing parties. Drawing on Swiss elections, this paper leverages various aspects of the electoral system. In Switzerland, the electoral process is characterized by open lists, allowing voters to select candidates within their preferred party, and cross-voting, enabling them to choose candidates from other party lists. Additionally, electoral registers provide data on the number of preference votes garnered by each candidate, categorized by the voter’s preferred party. The analysis reveals that individual preference votes play a pivotal role in driving gender disparities in candidates’ electoral achievements. While the gender gap in preferences expressed by supporters of a particular party is less robust, male politicians outperform their female counterparts significantly in collecting preference votes through cross-voting. This implies that male politicians are more skilled at persuading voters from rival parties. These findings, motivated by various underlying mechanisms, carry considerable policy implications concerning the approach to addressing gender inequalities in politics.

尽管一直在努力缩小性别差异,但女性在政治领域的代表性仍然不足。本文对女性在选举成功中的劣势提出了新的解释,重点关注政治家扩大选举基础和吸引对立党派选民的能力。本文以瑞士选举为基础,利用选举制度的各个方面。在瑞士,选举过程的特点是开放式名单,允许选民选择自己心仪政党的候选人,以及交叉投票,允许选民选择其他政党名单上的候选人。此外,选举登记册还提供了按选民所选政党分类的每位候选人所获偏好票数的数据。分析表明,个人偏好票在推动候选人选举成就的性别差异方面发挥了关键作用。虽然某一政党支持者所表达的偏好的性别差距并不明显,但男性政治家在通过交叉投票收集偏好票方面明显优于女性政治家。这意味着男性政治家更善于说服敌对党派的选民。这些研究结果由各种基本机制促成,对解决政治中的性别不平等问题具有重要的政策意义。
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引用次数: 0
The perceived impact of immigration on native workers’ labour market outcomes 移民对本地工人劳动力市场成果的预期影响
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102610

A sizeable literature analyses how immigration affects attitudes towards migrants and discusses differences between socio-economic groups and their potential correlation with perceived concerns about labour market competition. Against the background of the large-scale influx of refugees into Germany between 2015 and 2016, this paper uses data from a unique and representative survey of the German population to assess whether respondents express fears of job loss due to immigration. We focus on the importance of perceptions of migrants' ability to do one's job in relation to these fears. Moreover, we compare concerns about refugees with those about EU migrants and propose several hypotheses. Our findings indicate that: (i) Respondents are more likely to view EU migrants as potential competitors in the labour market. (ii) Workers in blue-collar occupations and without tertiary education are more likely to view migrants as potential competitors on the labour market. (iii) The perception of potential competition from migrants strongly predicts fear of job loss. Once we control for this perception, occupation and skill levels are no longer significantly related to the probability of reporting fear of job loss. Moreover, there are no longer significant differences between the two migrant groups. (iv) Anti-migrant sentiments are also associated with concerns about job loss.

大量文献分析了移民如何影响人们对移民的态度,并讨论了社会经济群体之间的差异及其与人们对劳动力市场竞争的担忧之间的潜在关联。在 2015 年至 2016 年难民大规模涌入德国的背景下,本文利用一项独特而具有代表性的德国人口调查数据,评估受访者是否表达了对移民导致失业的担忧。我们重点关注对移民工作能力的看法与这些担忧之间的关系。此外,我们还比较了对难民和欧盟移民的担忧,并提出了几个假设。我们的研究结果表明(i) 受访者更倾向于将欧盟移民视为劳动力市场的潜在竞争者。(ii) 从事蓝领职业且未受过高等教育的工人更有可能将移民视为劳动力市场的潜在竞争者。(iii) 对来自移民的潜在竞争的看法强烈预测了对失业的恐惧。一旦我们控制了这种看法,职业和技能水平就不再与报告担心失业的概率显著相关。此外,两个移民群体之间也不再存在显著差异。(iv) 反移民情绪也与担心失业有关。
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引用次数: 0
Support for temporary protection of displaced populations in the EU: A conjoint experiment 欧盟对流离失所者临时保护的支持:联合实验
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102601

Millions of people were forced to flee Ukraine after Russia's invasion on February 24, 2022, one of the fastest displacements in decades. Citizens' response in EU countries (where most displaced Ukrainians arrived) has been considerably more positive than in past refugee crises. This study investigates several possible drivers of this difference. We conduct a large conjoint experiment in six EU Member States, eliciting willingness to provide temporary protection to hypothetical groups of future migrants whose characteristics we manipulate systematically. We find that all of the experimental variables make a difference. We observe a greater support for protecting groups consisting of relatively many children and many women rather than men. The region of origin and the religious affiliation play a major role. Finally, we see greater support for people fleeing a war rather than poverty or the adverse consequences of climate change. While all these effects are identified consistently across different groups of respondents (e.g., the respondent's religion played a limited role), effect sizes vary considerably between countries. Finally, we randomly manipulate which aspect of temporary protection (social housing, access to the labour market) is emphasised in our communication to the participants. We find this manipulation to have a limited effect on the public support for the policy.

2022 年 2 月 24 日俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后,数百万人被迫逃离乌克兰,这是几十年来最快的一次流离失所。与以往的难民危机相比,欧盟国家(大多数流离失所的乌克兰人抵达欧盟)的公民反应要积极得多。本研究探讨了造成这种差异的几种可能原因。我们在六个欧盟成员国进行了一次大型联合实验,征询为假设的未来移民群体提供临时保护的意愿,我们系统地操纵了这些群体的特征。我们发现,所有实验变量都会产生影响。我们观察到,由相对较多的儿童和女性组成的群体比由男性组成的群体更受支持。原籍地区和宗教信仰也起着重要作用。最后,我们发现人们更支持逃离战争而不是贫困或气候变化的不利影响。虽然所有这些效应在不同的受访者群体中都是一致的(例如,受访者的宗教信仰所起的作用有限),但不同国家之间的效应大小却有很大差异。最后,我们随机操纵了在与参与者沟通时强调临时保护的哪一方面(社会住房、进入劳动力市场)。我们发现这种操纵对公众对政策的支持影响有限。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the ethics of prison policies to ensure human rights compliance: Suicides and self-inflicted critical events in Italian prisons 评估确保遵守人权的监狱政策的道德:意大利监狱中的自杀和自我造成的重大事件
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2023.102428

Considering self-inflicted critical events (suicides, attempted suicides, self-harm acts, hunger strikes) in Italian prisons as indicators of the respect of inmates' human rights, this study examines their relationship with the characteristics of the Italian prison system between 2016 and 2021, using a unique prison-level dataset covering the 188 national prisons. Both individual panel regressions and seemingly unrelated regressions show that reducing prison overcrowding reduces critical events. The same result is achieved by increasing mandatory treatments (restraint acts) performed discretionally by prison staff. Because the former policy is politically sensitive and difficult/costly to implement, policymakers may prefer to rely on the latter as a “death-avoidance strategy”, despite the greater likelihood of violating inmates’ human rights. These findings may help explain the increasing use of acts of restraint in Italian prisons in recent times.

本研究将意大利监狱中的自残危急事件(自杀、自杀未遂、自残行为、绝食)视为尊重囚犯人权的指标,利用涵盖全国 188 所监狱的独特监狱级数据集,研究了这些事件与 2016 年至 2021 年期间意大利监狱系统特征之间的关系。单个面板回归和看似无关的回归都表明,减少监狱过度拥挤会减少危急事件的发生。增加监狱工作人员酌情实施的强制治疗(限制行为)也能达到同样的效果。由于前一种政策具有政治敏感性,而且实施起来难度大/成本高,因此决策者可能更倾向于将后者作为一种 "避免死亡的策略",尽管这更有可能侵犯囚犯的人权。这些发现可能有助于解释近来意大利监狱中越来越多地使用限制行为的原因。
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引用次数: 0
Politically induced uncertainty and asset-market valuation 政治引发的不确定性和资产市场估值
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2023.102427

We study the consequences of politically induced asset-market uncertainty. Our data are from Poland, where the imposition of a new resource tax was vaguely announced in a single sentence by the prime minister in November 2011. The tax concerned a single company, one of the world's leading copper and silver producers. We show how the announcement, besides imposing losses as expected on shareholders, introduced uncertainty into asset-market valuation.

我们研究了政治因素引发的资产市场不确定性的后果。我们的数据来自波兰,2011 年 11 月,波兰总理用一句话含糊地宣布征收新的资源税。该税只涉及一家公司,即世界领先的铜银生产商之一。我们展示了该公告除了给股东带来预期损失外,还如何给资产市场估值带来不确定性。
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引用次数: 0
More is not always better. Effect of educational expenditures on education quality and social mobility in Switzerland 越多越好。瑞士教育支出对教育质量和社会流动性的影响
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2023.102407

Over the past 20 years, per-student spending on compulsory education in Switzerland has risen by 52 percent in real terms. However, per-pupil expenditures vary significantly across cantons. The question quickly arises whether “more is always better”. Switzerland lends itself to this analysis because spending authority lies with the cantons and thus provides a good setting for a within-country analysis. We use a new comprehensive dataset to measure educational quality and mobility at the individual level. Our analysis shows that higher cantonal spending does not increase educational quality or mobility. The allocation of education spending seems to be more important than its mere amount. For example, our study suggests a better linguistic integration of foreign-speaking students.

过去 20 年间,瑞士义务教育的生均支出实际增长了 52%。然而,各州的生均支出差异很大。人们很快就会提出 "越多越好 "的问题。瑞士适合进行这种分析,因为支出权在各州,因此为国内分析提供了一个良好的环境。我们使用一个新的综合数据集来衡量个人层面的教育质量和流动性。我们的分析表明,各州增加教育支出并不会提高教育质量或流动性。教育经费的分配似乎比单纯的数额更重要。例如,我们的研究表明,讲外语的学生可以更好地融入语言环境。
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引用次数: 0
The transition of education a cross-country macro analysis 教育转型的跨国宏观分析
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2023.102362

In cross-country data, income and key education variables are strongly correlated. This is mainly due to the long-run transition from traditional to modern society. The paper looks at a flow and a stock variable. The flow is the E-share of GDP for the annual public budget for education. When it is adjusted for the number of school-age children, it becomes the EC-share. The stock is School, which is the number of years the average person has been in school. Both variables are due to demand and supply. People and firms demand human capital needed by production. Governments supply education to increase production. The demand factor works better to explain the strong correlation. Countries with too much or too little education are identified by the deviations from the transition curves for education. Neither deviation has a clear impact on the growth rate. The explanation proposed uses the equilibrium properties of the transition path, where too much education is of no use, while too little is compensated by the private sector.

在跨国数据中,收入和主要教育变量密切相关。这主要是由于从传统社会向现代社会的长期过渡。本文研究了一个流量变量和一个存量变量。流量是年度公共教育预算占 GDP 的 E 份额。在根据学龄儿童人数进行调整后,就变成了 "EC-share"。存量变量是学校,即平均每人的在校年数。这两个变量都是供求关系造成的。人们和企业需要生产所需的人力资本。政府提供教育以提高产量。需求因素能更好地解释这种强相关性。教育过多或过少的国家是通过教育过渡曲线的偏差来确定的。这两种偏离都不会对增长率产生明显影响。所提出的解释利用了过渡路径的均衡特性,即过多的教育没有用处,而过少的教育则由私营部门弥补。
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引用次数: 0
An experiment on donations, personal stories, and bad luck 一个关于捐款、个人故事和坏运气的实验
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2023.102381

We conducted two fundraising experiments to study the effects (1) of compassion towards the beneficiary, and (2) of giving participants an opportunity to attribute small donations to luck. We find that exposing the participants to a plea to help the beneficiary increases the average donation. Giving participants an opportunity to attribute small donations to luck decreases the average donation. We find that in our setting, the latter effect dominates.

我们进行了两次筹款实验,以研究(1)对受益人的同情和(2)让参与者有机会将小额捐款归因于运气的影响。我们发现,向参与者发出帮助受益人的呼吁会增加平均捐款额。让参与者有机会将小额捐款归因于运气,则会降低平均捐款额。我们发现,在我们的环境中,后一种效应占主导地位。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
European Journal of Political Economy
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