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Wealth inequality and mega events 财富不平等与大型活动
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102615
Denis Ivanov , Gaygysyz Ashyrov
Wealth inequality, both within and between countries, is on the rise, prompting various interventions to address this issue. In this context, some governments could perceive hosting mega events as an opportunity to generate economic and social benefits through directed long-lasting investments and to converge with other countries in the region. However, the impact of these costly events on wealth inequality could be detrimental, depending on the quality of existing distribution channels. This paper aims to understand the potential role of mega events in addressing wealth inequality. We empirically test the impact of sports mega events on wealth inequality across more than 120 countries. Utilizing panel data analysis on a comprehensive dataset dating back to 1900, we find that hosting mega events such as the Olympic Games, FIFA World Cups, and Universal Expositions is associated with an increase in the wealth shares of the top 1% and 10%, often at the expense of the bottom 50%. This effect is double in magnitude in non-democracies and non-OECD countries, as well as higher during the organization of FIFA World Cups. We propose two possible explanations for this phenomenon: episodes of extreme growth during the organization of mega events that disproportionately benefit the wealthiest individuals, and vested interests associated with the organization of such events. Our results remain statistically significant under various model specifications.
国家内部和国家之间的财富不平等正在加剧,促使采取各种干预措施来解决这一问题。在这种情况下,一些国家的政府可能会将举办大型活动视为一个机会,通过直接的长期投资来创造经济和社会效益,并与该地区的其他国家接轨。然而,这些耗资巨大的活动对财富不平等的影响可能是有害的,这取决于现有分配渠道的质量。本文旨在了解特大事件在解决财富不平等问题方面的潜在作用。我们以实证方法检验了 120 多个国家的体育盛事对财富不平等的影响。通过对可追溯到 1900 年的综合数据集进行面板数据分析,我们发现,举办奥运会、国际足联世界杯和世界博览会等大型赛事与 1%和 10%最富裕阶层财富份额的增加有关,而这往往是以 50%最贫穷阶层的财富份额为代价的。在非民主国家和非经合组织国家,这种影响的程度加倍,在举办国际足联世界杯期间,这种影响也更大。我们对这一现象提出了两种可能的解释:一是在组织大型活动期间出现的极端增长,使最富有的人不成比例地受益;二是与组织此类活动相关的既得利益。在不同的模型规格下,我们的结果仍然具有统计意义。
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引用次数: 0
The evolution of affluent support for redistribution in Germany in the context of rising inequalities 不平等加剧背景下德国富裕阶层对再分配支持的演变
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102614
Bilal El Rafhi, Thibault Darcillon
This paper explores the changing attitudes of the most affluent individuals towards state intervention in redistribution in Germany in the context of growing inequality. Contrary to the predictions from traditional political economy models, a growing body of research suggests that the most affluent individuals could support more redistributive policies in reaction to higher income inequality due to altruism, fear of externalities (such as rising crime rates), and potential economic and social costs associated with downward mobility. Using survey data from the European Social Survey (ESS) from 2002 to 2020, our results provide robust evidence of our main prediction: we find a significant relative increase in support for redistribution among the top 30% of earners (compared to the bottom 70% of earners). Our heterogeneous analysis then reveals that the substantial increase in support for redistribution among the affluent has increased among supporters of the political left. This trend seems, however, to be comparatively less pronounced in East Germany.
本文探讨了德国在不平等日益加剧的背景下,最富裕人群对国家干预再分配的态度变化。与传统政治经济学模型的预测相反,越来越多的研究表明,由于利他主义、对外部因素(如犯罪率上升)的恐惧以及与向下流动相关的潜在经济和社会成本,最富裕人群可能会支持更具再分配性的政策,以应对收入不平等的加剧。利用 2002 年至 2020 年欧洲社会调查(ESS)的调查数据,我们的结果为我们的主要预测提供了有力的证据:我们发现,与收入最低的 70% 的人相比,收入最高的 30% 的人对再分配的支持显著增加。我们的异质性分析显示,富裕人群对再分配支持的大幅上升在政治左派的支持者中也有所上升。不过,这一趋势在东德似乎相对不那么明显。
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引用次数: 0
Political alliances and trade: Europe in a polarized world 政治联盟与贸易:两极化世界中的欧洲
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102612
Karen Jackson , Oleksandr Shepotylo
This study investigates how political alliances influence trade and welfare in Europe and major global economies amidst escalating geopolitical tensions. Utilizing a panel data approach, we assess the impact of military alliances on trade through structural gravity and staggered difference-in-difference methodologies. We further simulate the potential trade and welfare effects of the strengthening and disintegration of political alliances within blocs. Results reveal significant trade and welfare consequences stemming from the expansion or disintegration of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the establishment of a military alliance under the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). From a European point of view, our results suggest that the accession of new NATO members will bring economic benefits, while the US leaving NATO, or the deepening of the SCO, will bring negative trade and welfare effects. If a US exit from NATO triggers a disintegration of the alliance and the SCO creates a military alliance, this would lead to severe negative consequences for the EU. Notably, the study finds that the benefits of collective security provided by NATO substantially outweigh the costs associated with its 2% defence spending requirement.
本研究探讨了在地缘政治紧张局势不断升级的情况下,政治联盟如何影响欧洲和全球主要经济体的贸易和福利。我们利用面板数据方法,通过结构引力法和交错差分法评估军事联盟对贸易的影响。我们进一步模拟了集团内部政治联盟的加强和瓦解对贸易和福利的潜在影响。结果显示,北大西洋公约组织(NATO)的扩大或解体以及上海合作组织(SCO)军事联盟的建立都会对贸易和福利产生重大影响。从欧洲的角度来看,我们的研究结果表明,北约新成员的加入将带来经济利益,而美国退出北约或上海合作组织的深化将带来负面的贸易和福利影响。如果美国退出北约引发北约解体,上合组织建立军事联盟,这将给欧盟带来严重的负面影响。值得注意的是,研究发现北约提供的集体安全利益大大超过了其 2% 国防开支要求所带来的成本。
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引用次数: 0
Macroeconomic effects from media coverage of the China–U.S. trade war on selected EU countries 媒体报道中美贸易战对部分欧盟国家的宏观经济影响
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102611
Joscha Beckmann , Robert L. Czudaj , Michael Murach
The objective of this paper is to analyze the macroeconomic effects of media coverage related to the trade conflict between China and the U.S. for selected countries of the European Union. Our main aim is to evaluate whether media coverage constitutes a relevant transmission channel for macroeconomic effects. We evaluate the response of survey-based macroeconomic expectations, stock prices, and realized industrial production. Our analysis focuses on Germany, France, Italy, and Spain in order to allow for heterogeneous effects across major EU countries. We find significant effects on expectations, stock prices, and industrial production. Especially, a significantly negative effect on current account expectations is observed for three of the four considered EU countries (Germany, Italy, and Spain).
本文旨在分析与中美贸易冲突相关的媒体报道对欧盟部分国家宏观经济的影响。我们的主要目的是评估媒体报道是否构成宏观经济效应的相关传导渠道。我们评估了基于调查的宏观经济预期、股票价格和实际工业生产的反应。我们的分析侧重于德国、法国、意大利和西班牙,以考虑欧盟主要国家之间的异质性效应。我们发现了对预期、股票价格和工业生产的重大影响。特别是,在四个欧盟国家中的三个国家(德国、意大利和西班牙),经常账户预期受到了明显的负面影响。
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引用次数: 0
Beyond the party push: Gender differences in voters’ persuasion 超越政党推动:选民说服力中的性别差异
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102613
Giulia Savio

Despite ongoing efforts to bridge gender disparities, women continue to be underrepresented in political spheres. This paper proposes a novel explanation for the female disadvantage in electoral success, focusing on politicians’ capacity to broaden their electoral base and appeal to voters from opposing parties. Drawing on Swiss elections, this paper leverages various aspects of the electoral system. In Switzerland, the electoral process is characterized by open lists, allowing voters to select candidates within their preferred party, and cross-voting, enabling them to choose candidates from other party lists. Additionally, electoral registers provide data on the number of preference votes garnered by each candidate, categorized by the voter’s preferred party. The analysis reveals that individual preference votes play a pivotal role in driving gender disparities in candidates’ electoral achievements. While the gender gap in preferences expressed by supporters of a particular party is less robust, male politicians outperform their female counterparts significantly in collecting preference votes through cross-voting. This implies that male politicians are more skilled at persuading voters from rival parties. These findings, motivated by various underlying mechanisms, carry considerable policy implications concerning the approach to addressing gender inequalities in politics.

尽管一直在努力缩小性别差异,但女性在政治领域的代表性仍然不足。本文对女性在选举成功中的劣势提出了新的解释,重点关注政治家扩大选举基础和吸引对立党派选民的能力。本文以瑞士选举为基础,利用选举制度的各个方面。在瑞士,选举过程的特点是开放式名单,允许选民选择自己心仪政党的候选人,以及交叉投票,允许选民选择其他政党名单上的候选人。此外,选举登记册还提供了按选民所选政党分类的每位候选人所获偏好票数的数据。分析表明,个人偏好票在推动候选人选举成就的性别差异方面发挥了关键作用。虽然某一政党支持者所表达的偏好的性别差距并不明显,但男性政治家在通过交叉投票收集偏好票方面明显优于女性政治家。这意味着男性政治家更善于说服敌对党派的选民。这些研究结果由各种基本机制促成,对解决政治中的性别不平等问题具有重要的政策意义。
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引用次数: 0
Breaking the silence: The effects of online social movements on gender-based violence 打破沉默:网络社会运动对性别暴力的影响
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102598
Michele Battisti , Ilpo Kauppinen , Britta Rude
This paper investigates the impact of online social movements against gender-based violence (GBV) on GBV-related crime. Using machine learning techniques, we construct a novel dataset tracking the prevalence of GBV-related social media movements on Twitter from 2014 to 2017. Matching this data with weekly FBI crime reports across U.S. states we estimate the effect of tweets related to GBV on GBV-related reported crime. Our econometric approach aims to mitigate concerns of spurious correlations arising from common trends in Twitter usage and crime. We estimate national level regressions with differential effects on GBV-related and non-GBV-related crimes within the same week, as well as regressions at the state-by-week level controlling for state and month fixed effects. Our main findings reveal that GBV-related tweets led to a small but significant short-term decrease in GBV-related crime reports. Further analysis suggests that the decrease is attributable to a reduction in actual crime rather than in reporting behavior.
本文研究了反对性别暴力(GBV)的网络社交运动对性别暴力相关犯罪的影响。利用机器学习技术,我们构建了一个新的数据集,追踪 2014 年至 2017 年 Twitter 上与 GBV 相关的社交媒体运动的流行情况。将该数据与美国各州的联邦调查局每周犯罪报告相匹配,我们估算了与性别暴力相关的推文对性别暴力相关犯罪报告的影响。我们的计量经济学方法旨在减轻人们对推特使用和犯罪的共同趋势所产生的虚假相关性的担忧。我们估算了国家层面的回归结果,其中包括对同一周内与 GBV 相关和非 GBV 相关犯罪的不同影响,以及控制了州和月固定效应的逐周回归结果。我们的主要研究结果表明,与性别暴力相关的推文导致与性别暴力相关的犯罪报告在短期内出现了小幅但显著的下降。进一步的分析表明,这种下降是由于实际犯罪的减少而非报告行为的减少。
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引用次数: 0
The perceived impact of immigration on native workers’ labour market outcomes 移民对本地工人劳动力市场成果的预期影响
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102610
Bernd Hayo , Duncan H.W. Roth

A sizeable literature analyses how immigration affects attitudes towards migrants and discusses differences between socio-economic groups and their potential correlation with perceived concerns about labour market competition. Against the background of the large-scale influx of refugees into Germany between 2015 and 2016, this paper uses data from a unique and representative survey of the German population to assess whether respondents express fears of job loss due to immigration. We focus on the importance of perceptions of migrants' ability to do one's job in relation to these fears. Moreover, we compare concerns about refugees with those about EU migrants and propose several hypotheses. Our findings indicate that: (i) Respondents are more likely to view EU migrants as potential competitors in the labour market. (ii) Workers in blue-collar occupations and without tertiary education are more likely to view migrants as potential competitors on the labour market. (iii) The perception of potential competition from migrants strongly predicts fear of job loss. Once we control for this perception, occupation and skill levels are no longer significantly related to the probability of reporting fear of job loss. Moreover, there are no longer significant differences between the two migrant groups. (iv) Anti-migrant sentiments are also associated with concerns about job loss.

大量文献分析了移民如何影响人们对移民的态度,并讨论了社会经济群体之间的差异及其与人们对劳动力市场竞争的担忧之间的潜在关联。在 2015 年至 2016 年难民大规模涌入德国的背景下,本文利用一项独特而具有代表性的德国人口调查数据,评估受访者是否表达了对移民导致失业的担忧。我们重点关注对移民工作能力的看法与这些担忧之间的关系。此外,我们还比较了对难民和欧盟移民的担忧,并提出了几个假设。我们的研究结果表明(i) 受访者更倾向于将欧盟移民视为劳动力市场的潜在竞争者。(ii) 从事蓝领职业且未受过高等教育的工人更有可能将移民视为劳动力市场的潜在竞争者。(iii) 对来自移民的潜在竞争的看法强烈预测了对失业的恐惧。一旦我们控制了这种看法,职业和技能水平就不再与报告担心失业的概率显著相关。此外,两个移民群体之间也不再存在显著差异。(iv) 反移民情绪也与担心失业有关。
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引用次数: 0
Support for temporary protection of displaced populations in the EU: A conjoint experiment 欧盟对流离失所者临时保护的支持:联合实验
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102601
Michal Krawczyk , Andrea Blasco , Tomasz Gajderowicz , Marek Giergiczny

Millions of people were forced to flee Ukraine after Russia's invasion on February 24, 2022, one of the fastest displacements in decades. Citizens' response in EU countries (where most displaced Ukrainians arrived) has been considerably more positive than in past refugee crises. This study investigates several possible drivers of this difference. We conduct a large conjoint experiment in six EU Member States, eliciting willingness to provide temporary protection to hypothetical groups of future migrants whose characteristics we manipulate systematically. We find that all of the experimental variables make a difference. We observe a greater support for protecting groups consisting of relatively many children and many women rather than men. The region of origin and the religious affiliation play a major role. Finally, we see greater support for people fleeing a war rather than poverty or the adverse consequences of climate change. While all these effects are identified consistently across different groups of respondents (e.g., the respondent's religion played a limited role), effect sizes vary considerably between countries. Finally, we randomly manipulate which aspect of temporary protection (social housing, access to the labour market) is emphasised in our communication to the participants. We find this manipulation to have a limited effect on the public support for the policy.

2022 年 2 月 24 日俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后,数百万人被迫逃离乌克兰,这是几十年来最快的一次流离失所。与以往的难民危机相比,欧盟国家(大多数流离失所的乌克兰人抵达欧盟)的公民反应要积极得多。本研究探讨了造成这种差异的几种可能原因。我们在六个欧盟成员国进行了一次大型联合实验,征询为假设的未来移民群体提供临时保护的意愿,我们系统地操纵了这些群体的特征。我们发现,所有实验变量都会产生影响。我们观察到,由相对较多的儿童和女性组成的群体比由男性组成的群体更受支持。原籍地区和宗教信仰也起着重要作用。最后,我们发现人们更支持逃离战争而不是贫困或气候变化的不利影响。虽然所有这些效应在不同的受访者群体中都是一致的(例如,受访者的宗教信仰所起的作用有限),但不同国家之间的效应大小却有很大差异。最后,我们随机操纵了在与参与者沟通时强调临时保护的哪一方面(社会住房、进入劳动力市场)。我们发现这种操纵对公众对政策的支持影响有限。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the ethics of prison policies to ensure human rights compliance: Suicides and self-inflicted critical events in Italian prisons 评估确保遵守人权的监狱政策的道德:意大利监狱中的自杀和自我造成的重大事件
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2023.102428

Considering self-inflicted critical events (suicides, attempted suicides, self-harm acts, hunger strikes) in Italian prisons as indicators of the respect of inmates' human rights, this study examines their relationship with the characteristics of the Italian prison system between 2016 and 2021, using a unique prison-level dataset covering the 188 national prisons. Both individual panel regressions and seemingly unrelated regressions show that reducing prison overcrowding reduces critical events. The same result is achieved by increasing mandatory treatments (restraint acts) performed discretionally by prison staff. Because the former policy is politically sensitive and difficult/costly to implement, policymakers may prefer to rely on the latter as a “death-avoidance strategy”, despite the greater likelihood of violating inmates’ human rights. These findings may help explain the increasing use of acts of restraint in Italian prisons in recent times.

本研究将意大利监狱中的自残危急事件(自杀、自杀未遂、自残行为、绝食)视为尊重囚犯人权的指标,利用涵盖全国 188 所监狱的独特监狱级数据集,研究了这些事件与 2016 年至 2021 年期间意大利监狱系统特征之间的关系。单个面板回归和看似无关的回归都表明,减少监狱过度拥挤会减少危急事件的发生。增加监狱工作人员酌情实施的强制治疗(限制行为)也能达到同样的效果。由于前一种政策具有政治敏感性,而且实施起来难度大/成本高,因此决策者可能更倾向于将后者作为一种 "避免死亡的策略",尽管这更有可能侵犯囚犯的人权。这些发现可能有助于解释近来意大利监狱中越来越多地使用限制行为的原因。
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引用次数: 0
Politically induced uncertainty and asset-market valuation 政治引发的不确定性和资产市场估值
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2023.102427

We study the consequences of politically induced asset-market uncertainty. Our data are from Poland, where the imposition of a new resource tax was vaguely announced in a single sentence by the prime minister in November 2011. The tax concerned a single company, one of the world's leading copper and silver producers. We show how the announcement, besides imposing losses as expected on shareholders, introduced uncertainty into asset-market valuation.

我们研究了政治因素引发的资产市场不确定性的后果。我们的数据来自波兰,2011 年 11 月,波兰总理用一句话含糊地宣布征收新的资源税。该税只涉及一家公司,即世界领先的铜银生产商之一。我们展示了该公告除了给股东带来预期损失外,还如何给资产市场估值带来不确定性。
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引用次数: 0
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European Journal of Political Economy
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