European Journal of Political Economy最新文献

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Heterogeneity of institutions and model uncertainty in the income inequality nexus

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102670

Pinar Deniz , Thanasis Stengos

This study revisits the drivers of income inequality with political institutions at the core. We take a multidimensional institutional approach by defining political institutions in terms of governance, political freedom, political fragmentation and political scale. We carry out an extensive empirical analysis of the role of political institutions by decomposing it into distinct elements and providing available proxies for each dimension. Considering the difficulty and the lack of consensus and clarity regarding model selection in the literature, we follow a model averaging methodology to deal with the issue of model uncertainty and model specification that impacts the role of institutions. We combine an analysis of club convergence, a clustering mechanism according to the long term income trajectories of the countries, with Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to determine the most important variables that affect inequality out of a large set of potential determinants for each homogeneous country clusters in terms of their development path. Our results show that drivers of income inequality do not act the same irrespective of different economic development patterns and that there is no “one size fits all” policy prescription that links political institutions and income inequality.

本研究以政治体制为核心，重新审视了收入不平等的驱动因素。我们采用多维制度方法，从治理、政治自由、政治分裂和政治规模等方面对政治制度进行定义。我们将政治体制分解为不同的要素，并为每个维度提供可用的替代指标，从而对政治体制的作用进行了广泛的实证分析。考虑到文献中关于模型选择的困难以及缺乏共识和清晰度，我们采用了模型平均法来处理影响制度作用的模型不确定性和模型规范问题。我们将俱乐部趋同分析（一种根据国家长期收入轨迹进行聚类的机制）与贝叶斯模型平均法（BMA）相结合，从大量潜在决定因素中确定影响不平等的最重要变量，并根据每个同质国家的发展路径进行聚类。我们的研究结果表明，无论经济发展模式如何不同，收入不平等的驱动因素并不相同，在政治体制与收入不平等之间并不存在 "一刀切 "的政策规定。

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引用次数: 0

Political parties’ ideological bias and convergence in economic outcome

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102669

Zeeshan Hashim , Jan Fidrmuc , Sugata Ghosh

In democracies, policies are jointly shaped by voters' preferences and politicians' (or parties’) ideological biases. We explore the relative importance of the latter on some key economic outcomes – growth rate, inflation and inequality – in a broad sample of 71 democracies from 1995 to 2019. We find evidence that both left-wing and right-wing governments deliver convergent outcomes as regards growth, inflation and inequality. The same applies to the policy outcome of economic freedom. This indicates that consolidated democracies maintain continuity in economic policies, and a change in government from one political ideology to another with a different ideology does not significantly alter economic policy outcomes. However, we find divergence in hybrid regimes; inequality and economic freedom are reduced under leftist governments, and economic freedom is enhanced by rightist governments.

引用次数: 0

Social welfare and the group size paradox

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102673

Paul Pecorino

Tullock (1967) argues that the welfare costs of tariffs and monopoly extend beyond traditional deadweight loss measures to include both resources devoted to obtaining the transfer and resources spent resisting the transfer. This includes resources spent lobbying the government for the implementation of a favorable policy. Olson (1965) argues that lobbying activity frequently provides a nonexcludable good to an interest group and therefore may be subject to a free-rider problem. I use a Tullock (1980) style contest to analyze how the free-rider problem, the extent of the deadweight loss and bias in the policy process interact in determining the social loss resulting from lobbying activity. For plausible parameter values, an increase in the ability of the group potentially subject to the transfer to overcome the free-rider problem worsens social welfare by increasing expenditure in the transfer-seeking game even as it makes the distortion inducing transfer less likely. There are also plausible parameter values under which an increase in the bias of the policy process towards the group seeking the transfer raises social welfare by reducing expenditures in the transfer seeking game even as it makes the distortion inducing transfer more likely.

Tullock (1967)认为，关税和垄断的福利成本超出了传统的死重损失衡量标准，既包括用于获得转让的资源，也包括用于抵制转让的资源。这包括为实施有利政策而游说政府所花费的资源。Olson（1965）认为，游说活动经常为利益集团提供非排他性商品，因此可能会出现搭便车问题。我采用 Tullock（1980 年）式的竞赛来分析搭便车问题、死重损失程度和政策过程中的偏差如何相互作用，以决定游说活动造成的社会损失。在参数值合理的情况下，如果可能接受转移支付的群体克服搭便车问题的能力增强，则会增加寻求转移支付博弈中的支出，从而使社会福利恶化，即使它使诱发扭曲的转移支付的可能性降低。还有一些可信的参数值，在这些参数值下，政策过程对寻求转移的群体的偏向性增加，会减少寻求转移博弈中的支出，从而提高社会福利，即使它使诱发扭曲的转移更有可能发生。

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引用次数: 0

Rule of law and economic performance: A meta-regression analysis

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102677

Egnate Shamugia

This paper employs a meta-regression analysis to investigate the influence of the rule of law on economic performance. We analyze 72 empirical studies (466 estimates) on the relationship between the rule of law and economic performance. Our findings indicate the presence of publication selection biases; however, they also confirm a positive and moderate effect of the rule of law on economic performance. We also identify spatial, development level, measurement practices, and methodological specifications as the main sources of heterogeneity in the results of the primary studies.

引用次数: 0

Weapons and influence: Unpacking the impact of Chinese arms exports on the UNGA voting alignment

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102666

Xiaoyu He , Yawen Zheng , Yiwen Chen

Despite the research exploring factors shaping China’s influence, such causal influence from the perspective of Chinese arms transfers remains to be seen. In this study, we use arms exports and United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) voting data from 140 non-OECD countries between 1990 and 2021 to estimate the causal effect of Chinese arms exports on the recipients’ voting alignments with China in the UNGA, with the voting alignment measured by the proportion of votes that a recipient casts in agreement with China. By using the interaction between the annual exchange rate and cross-country frequencies of receiving arms to construct an instrument, we isolate cleaner exogenous variations in Chinese arms exports. The 2SLS estimates reveal that Chinese arms exports lead to a significant increase in the share of votes cast in favor of China. We also offer plausible explanations for our findings, suggesting that arms recipients may be incentivized to align with China due to the strategic necessity of maintaining their ruling authority and the long-term dependence on Chinese arms supplies.

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引用次数: 0

Social mobility and political stability

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102665

Weicheng Lyu

This paper investigates the occurrence of revolutions in an economy consisting of elites and ordinary citizens. In the economy, elites obtain a disproportionate share of income and maintain their children’s status within the elite class by nepotism. Meanwhile, nepotism obstructs the path for capable individuals to enter the elite class, thereby enhancing the citizens’ relative advantage in capable manpower. In response, citizens may resort to revolutions for a larger share of national income. As the citizens’ relative advantage rises, the difficulty of launching a revolution declines; once it reaches some threshold, a revolution occurs. However, social mobility imposes institutional constraints on nepotism, thus playing a pivotal role in determining the occurrence of revolutions. In this context, we offer an explanation for the periodicity of dynasties and propose an optimal scheme to increase social mobility and prevent revolutions.

引用次数: 0

Do large, sustained economic freedom reforms hurt or improve women's economic rights?

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102671

Tibor Rutar

Does economic freedom come at the expense of women's economic rights, or does it instead help improve them? Presently, there are almost no studies investigating this issue, and what evidence exists is mostly correlational. This paper presents findings from matching analyses with the explicit aim of addressing the likely endogenous relationship between economic freedom and respect for women's economic rights. Using the latest data (up to 2022), estimates from matching methods, as well as supplementary regressions based on conditional mixed-processes, all point to economic freedom having an improving effect. Two components of economic freedom – sound money and freedom of international trade – seem most likely to drive the aggregate result. The uncovered positive aggregate effect is robust to an extensive set of control variables, tweaks in the operationalization of treatment, and varying the post-treatment period.

引用次数: 0

Random walks into democracy and back: The case against causal explanations of democratization

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-03-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102667

Thomas Apolte

Due to the complexity of historical processes that have led into sustainable democracy, determining generally applicable theories of democratization without violating standards of modern methodology is difficult if not impossible. Hence, we follow an alternative avenue by distinguishing singular democratization events from the politico-institutional soil on which they fall. We represent the latter by the type of loyalty on which government officials coordinate in cases of loyalty conflicts: either to other government officials; or to the rules of the underlying power-sharing arrangement. We embed our results in a dynamic framework and then run a number of simulations that reconstruct possible historical paths into and out of (sustainable) democracy. We demonstrate that the evolution of sustainable democracy, but also its demise, may evolve out of a purely random walk, i.e. a sequence of serially — although not necessarily spatially — uncorrelated historical events, rather than out of any identifiable and generalizable causal driver.

引用次数: 0

How do local governments and housing markets respond to demographic information shocks? Evidence from Japan’s Extinction Risk List

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-03-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102663

Shinya Inukai

Many countries face the prospect of shrinking populations. I use a unique event—the publication of a list of Japanese municipalities at risk of extinction by 2040—to estimate the impacts of declining populations on municipalities and housing markets using difference-in-differences models. The results show that the shock increases of 23.5% in regional development spending and 11.5% in child-oriented spending and a decrease of 3.67% in housing sales prices. Notably, by using the score information calculated for the judgment of possible extinction, I obtain a consistent result when limiting the sample to municipalities with a score close to the judgment threshold. This supports the interpretation that the effects on local government policy and housing markets are due to the adverse signal caused by the list publication rather than the demographic trends.

引用次数: 0

Fiscal policy preferences: Evidence from conjoint experiments in Poland

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

European Journal of Political Economy

Pub Date : 2025-03-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102664

Jakub Bartak , Łukasz Jabłoński , Katarzyna Obłąkowska

The paper examines public preferences for fiscal policy in Poland using two complementary Adaptive Choice-Based Conjoint (ACBC) experiments on a representative sample of Polish adults. The first experiment – the expenditure conjoint – tests whether and how much respondents are willing to pay in higher taxes to secure additional public services in several crucial domains. The second experiment – the tax conjoint – follows up on these findings by asking how citizens would prefer to pay, testing support for alternative tax solutions. Each proposed tax package is budget neutral, but varies in how burdens are distributed, allowing for an assessment of progressive versus regressive preferences. The study finds support for increased government spending in key policy areas (defense, health, education, and pensions), accompanied by a willingness to finance these expansions through higher taxes. Despite the conventional view of Poland as tax-averse, many respondents appear willing to accept higher taxes if they perceive tangible returns. The results show also a clear preference for tax solutions that shift the burden toward better-off individuals and enhance tax progression. Overall, these findings suggest that, even in tax-skeptical contexts, public preferences can align in favor of higher taxes when benefits are clearly communicated and fairness concerns are addressed.

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引用次数: 0

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