Spatiotemporal modelling of northern shrimp Pandalus borealis distribution patterns throughout Canada’s subarctic and arctic regions

ABSTRACT: Northern shrimp Pandalus borealis occur throughout Canada’s Atlantic Ocean, where they are thought to form a single population spanning from Baffin Bay to the tail of the Grand Bank. Here, they play an important role in the ecosystem as prey for many taxa and have been targeted by a lucrative large-scale fishery since the 1970s. Yet, we still understand little about which (and how) ecosystem and environmental factors influence their distribution and abundance. We used survey data collected over 29 yr throughout 23 degrees of latitude to develop a spatiotemporal model predicting northern shrimp density. We confirmed that both top-down drivers (e.g. predation pressure), as well as bottom-up drivers (e.g. bottom temperature) play important roles in determining both the presence and abundance of northern shrimp. The model was used to predict the density of northern shrimp throughout the entire study area from 2005 to 2022. Our results highlight the importance of understanding ecosystem and environmental dynamics in relation to northern shrimp population patterns and trends within resource assessments.