Spatial–Temporal Variations in Soil Organic Carbon and Driving Factors in Guangdong, China (2009–2023)

Spatial–temporal variation in soil organic carbon is an important factor for national targets to mitigate climate change and land degradation impacts. In this research, we took Guangdong Province of China as the study area, evaluated the spatial–temporal distributions of soil organic carbon using data from three China Geochemical Baseline projects (conducted in 2009, 2016, and 2023, respectively), and quantified the main driving factors of spatial–temporal variations in soil organic carbon using the random forest algorithm, further predicting the density and inventories of soil organic carbon. The results demonstrate that the mean value of SOC in Guangdong in 2009 was 0.81%; in 2016 it was 1.13%; and in 2023 it was 1.02%. The inventories of soil organic carbon (0–30 cm) in Guangdong Province were 0.61 Pg in 2009, 0.74 Pg in 2016, and 0.62 Pg in 2023. Soil in Guangdong acted as a carbon sink from 2009 to 2023 as a whole, and the most important driving force behind spatial–temporal variations in soil organic carbon was temperature, followed by precipitation and vegetation cover.