考察巴比伦城强度-持续时间-频率曲线的不确定性--综合分析

Thair Jabbar Mizhir AL-Fatlawi, Karrar Ghanim Hameed AL-Talebi
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摘要

降雨是水文循环的补充成分之一,因此工程师必须能够尽可能多地确定降雨量,以便设计雨水集结、运输和储存设施。本研究的目的是对巴比伦站的年降雨深度(毫米)数据进行综合分析,以找出观测频率分布的特征。本文通过从伊拉克巴比伦站一年的数据中提取最大值以及 1991 年至 2021 年一年的数据值率,得出年降雨深度(毫米)的数据,以建立观测频率分布的特征。尝试拟合了三种现有的理论分布,即正态分布、对数正态分布和伽马分布。为了将理论分布与观察到的分布进行比较,研究了 Chi-Square 指数、Kolmogorov-Smirnov 指数和 Anderson-Darling 指数。冈贝尔极值分布、正态分布和对数正态分布被用于了解数据的适宜性以及 5 年、10 年、15 年和 50 年的适宜性。在本研究的其余部分,获得了降雨强度-持续时间-频率(IDF)曲线的补助金,并对巴比伦观测站 15、30 和 60 分钟的降雨量进行了重复计算。
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Examining Uncertainties in Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Babylon City – A Comprehensive Analysis
Rains are one of the complementary components of the hydrological cycle, so engineers must be able to determine as much as possible in order to design facilities dealing with the assembly, transportation and storage of rains.. The objective of this research is to comprehensive analysis the data of the depth of annual rainfall (mm) of the Babylon Station for the purpose of finding the characteristics of the distributions of observed frequency. In this paper data of annual rainfall depth (mm) by taking maximum value from one year’s data as well as the rate of data values for one year from 1991 to 2021 for one stock station in Iraq, Babylon for the purpose of creating the characteristics of the distribution of observed frequency. An attempt was made to fit three of the available theoretical distributions, the Normal, Log Normal and Gamma distributions. The Chi-Square, Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling indices examined for the purpose of comparing theoretical distributions with viewed distributions. Gumbel’s extreme value distribution, the Normal and the Log Normal distribution were used to know the suitability of the data and for the periods of 5, 10, 15 and 50 years. In the remainder of this research, grants of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves of the rainfall were obtained and repeated for the rainfall of the Babylon observation station for 15, 30 and 60 minutes.
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