Optimal human papillomavirus vaccination strategies in the context of vaccine supply constraints in 100 countries.

Background: Countries are recommended to immunise adolescent girls routinely with one or two doses of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. With most existing vaccine doses absorbed by countries (mostly high-income) with existing HPV vaccination programmes, limited supply has been left for new country introductions until 2022; many of those, low- and middle-income countries with higher mortality. Several vaccination strategies were considered by the Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization to allow more countries to introduce vaccination despite constrained supplies.

Methods: We examined the impact of nine strategies for allocating limited vaccine doses to 100 pre-introduction countries from 2020 to 2030. Two algorithms were used to optimise the total number of cancer deaths that can be averted worldwide by a limited number of doses (knapsack and decreasing order of country-specific mortality rates), and an unoptimised algorithm (decreasing order of Human Development Index) were used.

Findings: Routinely vaccinating 14-year-old girls with either one or two doses and switching to a routine 9-year-old programme when supply is no longer constrained could prevent the most cervical cancer deaths, regardless of allocation algorithm. The unoptimised allocation averts fewer deaths because it allocates first to higher-income countries, usually with lower cervical cancer mortality.

Interpretation: To optimise the deaths averted through vaccination when supply is limited, it is important to prioritise high-burden countries and vaccinating older girls first.

Funding: WHO, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.