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Impact of sedative and appetite-increasing properties on the apparent antidepressant efficacy of mirtazapine, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and amitriptyline: an item-based, patient-level meta-analysis. 米氮平、选择性 5-羟色胺再摄取抑制剂和阿米替林的镇静和食欲增加特性对其明显抗抑郁疗效的影响:基于项目、患者层面的荟萃分析。
IF 9.6 1区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL Pub Date : 2024-11-07 eCollection Date: 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.102904
Fredrik Hieronymus, Alexander Lisinski, Elias Eriksson
<p><strong>Background: </strong>In an influential network meta-analysis, the tricyclic antidepressant (TCA) amitriptyline was found to be the most efficacious of 21 antidepressants, hence outranking selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and serotonin and noradrenaline reuptake inhibitors (SNRIs). The alpha<sub>2</sub>/5HT<sub>2A</sub>/<sub>2C</sub>/<sub>3</sub>/H<sub>1</sub> antagonist mirtazapine was ranked as the second most effective and appeared at least as effective as the SSRIs and SNRIs that followed next. Since the most common effect parameter in depression trials-the sum score of the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS-17-sum)-includes three items measuring sleep and two measuring appetite and weight, this outcome could be the result of amitriptyline and mirtazapine being more sedative and orexigenic. The main aim of this study was to compare mirtazapine with SSRIs or amitriptyline with respect to impact on core depression symptoms.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Access to patient-level data from all company-sponsored, acute-phase, HDRS-based, and randomized trials of mirtazapine in adult major depression available to Merck was granted. Thirty-two studies compared mirtazapine to placebo and/or amitriptyline or an SSRI whereas five compared mirtazapine to another TCA or an SNRI, venlafaxine. Data were divided into subgroups for direct comparisons of mirtazapine vs placebo or different subgroups of antidepressants. Indirect comparisons of SSRIs vs amitriptyline were also undertaken. Mixed models for repeated measures were used to assess efficacy as reflected by i) HDRS-17-sum, ii) six core depression symptoms (HDRS-6-sum), and iii) all individual items.</p><p><strong>Findings: </strong>The dataset consisted of 5974 participants. Mirtazapine (n = 1362) outperformed SSRIs (n = 1369) on HDRS-17-sum, but this was due to differences regarding items reflecting sleep, appetite, and gastrointestinal dysfunction-with respect to reducing depressed mood, suicidality, and psychic anxiety, SSRIs and/or venlafaxine were more effective. Amitriptyline (n = 622) was superior to mirtazapine (n = 606) in reducing depressed mood, and the combined group of all TCAs (n = 831) outperformed mirtazapine (n = 824) also with respect to other core depression symptoms. Since there were no head-to-head comparisons of amitriptyline vs SSRIs, no firm conclusion may be drawn with respect to relative efficacy of the two, but indirect comparisons support the notion that amitriptyline and other tricyclics may be superior also to SSRIs.</p><p><strong>Interpretation: </strong>While the apparent superiority of mirtazapine over SSRIs is explained by its sedative and orexigenic properties, and by its absence of gastrointestinal side effects, amitriptyline appeared more effective in reducing core symptoms of depression than mirtazapine and possibly also than SSRIs; given the indirect nature of the latter comparison, this outcome should however be interpreted with cau
背景在一项颇具影响力的网络荟萃分析中,发现三环类抗抑郁药(TCA)阿米替林是21种抗抑郁药中疗效最好的,因此超过了选择性5-羟色胺再摄取抑制剂(SSRIs)以及5-羟色胺和去甲肾上腺素再摄取抑制剂(SNRIs)。α2/5HT2A/2C/3/H1拮抗剂米氮平的疗效排在第二位,与紧随其后的 SSRIs 和 SNRIs 的疗效至少相当。由于抑郁症试验中最常见的效果参数--汉密尔顿抑郁评分量表(HDRS-17-sum)的总分--包括三个测量睡眠的项目和两个测量食欲和体重的项目,这一结果可能是由于阿米替林和米氮平具有更强的镇静和促食欲作用。本研究的主要目的是比较米氮平和 SSRIs 或阿米替林对核心抑郁症状的影响:方法:默克公司获得了所有公司赞助的、基于HDRS的米氮平治疗成人重度抑郁症急性期随机试验的患者数据。有 32 项研究将米氮平与安慰剂和/或阿米替林或 SSRI 进行了比较,有 5 项研究将米氮平与另一种 TCA 或 SNRI(文拉法辛)进行了比较。米氮平与安慰剂或不同抗抑郁药亚组的直接比较数据被分为不同的亚组。还进行了 SSRIs 与阿米替林的间接比较。采用重复测量混合模型来评估疗效,疗效反映在 i) HDRS-17-总和;ii) 六种核心抑郁症状(HDRS-6-总和);iii) 所有单项上:数据集由 5974 名参与者组成。米氮平(n = 1362)在HDRS-17-sum上的疗效优于SSRIs(n = 1369),但这是由于在反映睡眠、食欲和胃肠功能紊乱的项目上存在差异--在减轻抑郁情绪、自杀倾向和精神焦虑方面,SSRIs和/或文拉法辛的疗效更好。在减轻抑郁情绪方面,阿米替林(n = 622)优于米氮平(n = 606),而在其他核心抑郁症状方面,所有 TCAs 的联合组(n = 831)也优于米氮平(n = 824)。由于没有对阿米替林与 SSRIs 进行正面比较,因此无法就两者的相对疗效得出明确结论,但间接比较支持了阿米替林和其他三环类药物也可能优于 SSRIs 的观点:米氮平明显优于 SSRIs 的原因是其具有镇静和抗兴奋作用,而且没有胃肠道副作用,但阿米替林在减轻抑郁症的核心症状方面似乎比米氮平更有效,也可能比 SSRIs 更有效;鉴于后者的间接比较性质,对这一结果的解释应谨慎。缺乏有关剂量的信息是另一个重要的局限性。这项研究表明,在评估抗抑郁药的相对疗效时,基于项目的分析很有价值:瑞典研究委员会、瑞典脑基金会。哥德堡医学会、瑞典医学会、Åke Wiberg基金会、Märta Lundqvist基金会、Fredrik和Ingrid Thuring基金会、Söderström-Königska基金会和哥德堡Frimurare-Barnhusdirektionen基金会。
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引用次数: 0
The hockey fans in training intervention for men with overweight or obesity: a pragmatic cluster randomised trial. 针对超重或肥胖男性的曲棍球爱好者训练干预:实用分组随机试验。
IF 9.6 1区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL Pub Date : 2024-11-07 eCollection Date: 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.102911
Robert J Petrella, Dawn P Gill, Nárlon C Boa Sorte Silva, Brendan Riggin, Wendy M Blunt, Marisa Kfrerer, Melissa Majoni, Jacquelyn Marsh, Jennifer D Irwin, Saverio Stranges, Merrick Zwarenstein, Guangyong Zou

Background: Obesity disproportionately impacts men's health yet fewer men engage in preventive healthcare. We examined the effectiveness of Hockey Fans in Training (Hockey FIT), a gender-sensitised lifestyle intervention that engages men with overweight/obesity through their passion as fans of a local sports team, on weight change and other health indicators.

Methods: Pragmatic, cluster randomised trial (aged 35-65 years, body mass index ≥ 27 kg/m2) within 42 community-based sites in Canada and the United States, randomly assigned (1:1) to intervention (Hockey FIT) or control (wait-list) and stratified by region. Sites were selected based on partnerships with local major junior/professional hockey teams and community implementation partners. Intervention participants received exercise and education during a three-month active phase (once-weekly, 90-min sessions) followed by a nine-month minimally-supported phase; control participants continued with usual activities. Primary outcome was weight change at 12 months. Assessment teams were blinded to group assignment including photos of weight measurements on digital scales, to provide proof of values recorded (post COVID-19). Analyses followed intent-to-treat. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03636282.

Findings: Between November 13, 2018-November 12, 2021, 20 sites (n = 497) were allocated to intervention and 22 sites (n = 500) to control. Participants with baseline weight and weight at 3 or 12 months, were included in the primary analysis (20 intervention sites [n = 354]; 22 control sites [n = 425]). At 12 months, mean weight change was -2.02 kg (95% confidence interval [CI], -2.78 to -1.26) with intervention and -0.92 kg (CI, -1.58 to -0.26) with control (difference, -1.10 kg [CI, -2.11 to -0.09], p = 0.03). There were 22 non-study related serious adverse events (45.5% in intervention; 54.5% in control).

Interpretation: Hockey FIT reduced weight in men with overweight or obesity. Hockey FIT is an innovative approach to engage men at increased risk of non-communicable disease in effective health behaviour change, through their passion as fans of their local hockey team.

Funding: Public Health Agency of Canada; Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

背景:肥胖对男性健康的影响尤为严重,但参与预防保健的男性却较少。我们研究了 "曲棍球爱好者训练"(Hockey FIT)的有效性。这是一种性别敏感的生活方式干预措施,通过当地运动队球迷的热情,让超重/肥胖男性参与其中,从而改变体重和其他健康指标:方法:在加拿大和美国的 42 个社区站点进行务实的分组随机试验(年龄在 35-65 岁之间,体重指数≥ 27 kg/m2),随机分配(1:1)干预(冰球 FIT)或对照(等待名单),并按地区进行分层。根据与当地主要青少年/职业曲棍球队和社区实施合作伙伴的合作关系,选择了这些地点。干预参与者在为期三个月的积极阶段(每周一次,每次 90 分钟)接受锻炼和教育,随后是为期九个月的最低支持阶段;对照组参与者继续进行常规活动。主要结果是 12 个月时的体重变化。评估小组对分组任务进行盲测,包括在数字秤上测量体重的照片,以提供记录值的证明(COVID-19 后)。分析遵循意向治疗原则。试验注册:ClinicalTrials.gov,NCT03636282.研究结果:2018年11月13日至2021年11月12日期间,20个地点(n = 497)被分配到干预组,22个地点(n = 500)被分配到对照组。基线体重和3个月或12个月体重的参与者被纳入主要分析(20个干预地点[n = 354];22个对照地点[n = 425])。12个月时,干预组的平均体重变化为-2.02千克(95%置信区间[CI],-2.78至-1.26),对照组为-0.92千克(CI,-1.58至-0.26)(差异为-1.10千克[CI,-2.11至-0.09],P = 0.03)。共有 22 例与研究无关的严重不良事件(干预组为 45.5%;对照组为 54.5%):曲棍球 FIT 减少了超重或肥胖男性的体重。冰球FIT是一种创新方法,通过当地冰球队球迷的热情,让非传染性疾病风险增加的男性参与到有效的健康行为改变中来:资金来源:加拿大公共卫生署;加拿大卫生研究院。
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引用次数: 0
The value of diagnostic imaging for enhancing primary care in low- and middle-income countries. 影像诊断在中低收入国家加强初级保健方面的价值。
IF 9.6 1区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL Pub Date : 2024-11-05 eCollection Date: 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.102899
Vaidehi Nafade, Paulami Sen, Matthew Arentz, Rigveda Kadam, Jacob Bigio, Luke N Allen, Dian Maria Blandina, Stellah Bosire, Julia Ferreira, Saurabh Jha, Oommen John, S P Kalantri, Nkirote Mwirigi, Mamsallah Faal-Omisore, Cesar Ugarte-Gil, Shibu Vijayan, Marie-Claire Wangari, Madhukar Pai
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引用次数: 0
Deep learning model for automated diagnosis of moyamoya disease based on magnetic resonance angiography. 基于磁共振血管造影的莫亚莫亚病自动诊断深度学习模型。
IF 9.6 1区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL Pub Date : 2024-11-05 eCollection Date: 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.102888
Mingming Lu, Yijia Zheng, Shitong Liu, Xiaolan Zhang, Jiahui Lv, Yuan Liu, Baobao Li, Fei Yuan, Peng Peng, Cong Han, Chune Ma, Chao Zheng, Hongtao Zhang, Jianming Cai

Background: This study explores the potential of the deep learning-based convolutional neural network (CNN) to automatically recognize MMD using MRA images from atherosclerotic disease (ASD) and normal control (NC).

Methods: In this retrospective study in China, 600 participants (200 MMD, 200 ASD and 200 NC) were collected from one institution as an internal dataset for training and 60 from another institution were collected as external testing set for validation. All participants were divided into training (N = 450) and validation sets (N = 90), internal testing set (N = 60), and external testing set (N = 60). The input to the CNN models comprised preprocessed MRA images, while the output was a tripartite classification label that identified the patient's diagnostic group. The performances of 3D CNN models were evaluated using a comprehensive set of metrics such as area under the curve (AUC) and accuracy. Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM) was used to visualize the CNN's decision-making process in MMD diagnosis by highlighting key areas. Finally, the diagnostic performances of the CNN models were compared with those of two experienced radiologists.

Findings: DenseNet-121 exhibited superior discrimination capabilities, achieving a macro-average AUC of 0.977 (95% CI, 0.928-0.995) in the internal test sets and 0.880 (95% CI, 0.786-0.937) in the external validation sets, thus exhibiting comparable diagnostic capabilities to those of human radiologists. In the binary classification where ASD and NC were group together, with MMD as the separate group for targeted detection, DenseNet-121 achieved an accuracy of 0.967 (95% CI, 0.886-0.991). Additionally, the Grad-CAM results for the MMD, with areas of intense redness indicating critical areas identified by the model, reflected decision-making similar to human experts.

Interpretation: This study highlights the efficacy of CNN model in the automated diagnosis of MMD on MRA images, easing the workload on radiologists and promising integration into clinical workflows.

Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China, Tianjin Science and Technology Project and Beijing Natural Science Foundation.

背景:本研究探讨了基于深度学习的卷积神经网络(CNN)利用动脉粥样硬化疾病(ASD)和正常对照(NC)的MRA图像自动识别MMD的潜力:在这项中国的回顾性研究中,从一家机构收集了600名参与者(200名MMD、200名ASD和200名NC)作为内部数据集进行训练,从另一家机构收集了60名参与者作为外部测试集进行验证。所有参与者被分为训练集(450 人)和验证集(90 人)、内部测试集(60 人)和外部测试集(60 人)。CNN 模型的输入包括预处理的 MRA 图像,而输出则是一个三方分类标签,用于识别患者的诊断组别。使用曲线下面积(AUC)和准确率等综合指标对 3D CNN 模型的性能进行了评估。梯度加权类激活图谱(Grad-CAM)通过突出关键区域,将 CNN 在 MMD 诊断中的决策过程可视化。最后,将 CNN 模型的诊断性能与两位经验丰富的放射科医生的诊断性能进行了比较:DenseNet-121表现出卓越的分辨能力,在内部测试集上的宏观平均AUC达到0.977(95% CI,0.928-0.995),在外部验证集上的宏观平均AUC达到0.880(95% CI,0.786-0.937),因此表现出与人类放射科医生相当的诊断能力。在二元分类中,ASD 和 NC 被归为一组,MMD 作为单独的一组进行定向检测,DenseNet-121 的准确率达到了 0.967(95% CI,0.886-0.991)。此外,Grad-CAM 对 MMD 的检测结果显示,模型识别出的关键区域呈现出强烈的红色,这反映了与人类专家相似的决策结果:本研究强调了 CNN 模型在 MRA 图像 MMD 自动诊断中的功效,减轻了放射科医生的工作量,有望融入临床工作流程:国家自然科学基金、天津市科技计划项目和北京市自然科学基金。
{"title":"Deep learning model for automated diagnosis of moyamoya disease based on magnetic resonance angiography.","authors":"Mingming Lu, Yijia Zheng, Shitong Liu, Xiaolan Zhang, Jiahui Lv, Yuan Liu, Baobao Li, Fei Yuan, Peng Peng, Cong Han, Chune Ma, Chao Zheng, Hongtao Zhang, Jianming Cai","doi":"10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.102888","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.102888","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>This study explores the potential of the deep learning-based convolutional neural network (CNN) to automatically recognize MMD using MRA images from atherosclerotic disease (ASD) and normal control (NC).</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>In this retrospective study in China, 600 participants (200 MMD, 200 ASD and 200 NC) were collected from one institution as an internal dataset for training and 60 from another institution were collected as external testing set for validation. All participants were divided into training (N = 450) and validation sets (N = 90), internal testing set (N = 60), and external testing set (N = 60). The input to the CNN models comprised preprocessed MRA images, while the output was a tripartite classification label that identified the patient's diagnostic group. The performances of 3D CNN models were evaluated using a comprehensive set of metrics such as area under the curve (AUC) and accuracy. Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM) was used to visualize the CNN's decision-making process in MMD diagnosis by highlighting key areas. Finally, the diagnostic performances of the CNN models were compared with those of two experienced radiologists.</p><p><strong>Findings: </strong>DenseNet-121 exhibited superior discrimination capabilities, achieving a macro-average AUC of 0.977 (95% CI, 0.928-0.995) in the internal test sets and 0.880 (95% CI, 0.786-0.937) in the external validation sets, thus exhibiting comparable diagnostic capabilities to those of human radiologists. In the binary classification where ASD and NC were group together, with MMD as the separate group for targeted detection, DenseNet-121 achieved an accuracy of 0.967 (95% CI, 0.886-0.991). Additionally, the Grad-CAM results for the MMD, with areas of intense redness indicating critical areas identified by the model, reflected decision-making similar to human experts.</p><p><strong>Interpretation: </strong>This study highlights the efficacy of CNN model in the automated diagnosis of MMD on MRA images, easing the workload on radiologists and promising integration into clinical workflows.</p><p><strong>Funding: </strong>National Natural Science Foundation of China, Tianjin Science and Technology Project and Beijing Natural Science Foundation.</p>","PeriodicalId":11393,"journal":{"name":"EClinicalMedicine","volume":"77 ","pages":"102888"},"PeriodicalIF":9.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11570825/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142666345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The performance of a point-of-care test for the diagnosis of Neurocysticercosis in a resource-poor community setting in Zambia - a diagnostic accuracy study. 在赞比亚一个资源匮乏的社区环境中,用于诊断神经囊尾蚴病的护理点检验的性能--诊断准确性研究。
IF 9.6 1区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL Pub Date : 2024-11-02 eCollection Date: 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.102893
Gideon Zulu, Dominik Stelzle, Kabemba E Mwape, Inge Van Damme, Chiara Trevisan, Chishimba Mubanga, Veronika Schmidt, Isaac K Phiri, Richard Mambo, Mwelwa Chembensofu, Maxwell Masuku, Charlotte Ruether, John Noh, Sukwan Handali, Emmanuel Bottieau, Pascal Magnussen, Pierre Dorny, Agnes Fleury, Andrea S Winkler, Sarah Gabriël

Background: Neurocysticercosis (NCC) is the main cause of epilepsy in Taenia solium endemic rural communities. NCC diagnosis is difficult due to unavailability and unaffordability of serologic assays and neuroimaging. This study aimed to assess the performance of a cheap, novel T. solium lateral-flow point-of-care (TS POC) test for the diagnosis of NCC in a community setting.

Methods: A diagnostic accuracy study with prospective data collection, using a two-stage design was conducted in Sinda district of the Eastern province of Zambia between December 2017 and June 2019. Eligible participants were tested with the TS POC test. Thereafter, participants with a TS POC CC+ result and a subset of participants with a TS POC CC- result were subjected to serological testing for reference assays, and cerebral computed tomography (CT) for the reference diagnosis of NCC.

Findings: A total of 1249 participants were tested with the TS POC of which 177 (14%) were positive. Of the 151 TS POC CC+ and 82 TS POC CC- participants with cerebral CT examination, 35 TS POC CC+ and 10 TS POC CC-, respectively, had NCC. The sensitivity of the TS POC CC strip was 26% (uncertainty interval [UI] 15-41) for any type of NCC, which was similar to that estimated for the rT24H-EITB (23%, UI 8-48) and the serum antigen ELISA (30%, UI 11-58). The specificity was 88% (UI 85-90) for the TS POC, 89% (UI 79-94) for the rT24H-EITB, and 82% (UI 71-89) for the antigen ELISA. For NCC with active stage lesions, sensitivity was >99% (UI 58->99) for the TS POC, 76% (UI 40-94) for the rT24H-EITB and 76% (UI 39-94) for the antigen ELISA.

Interpretation: The TS POC CC had a promising sensitivity for diagnosis of participants with active NCC lesions within a community-based setting. Accuracy for NCC at any stage was limited for all tests (TS POC, rT24H-EITB and antigen ELISA). With further development the TS POC CC may enable a better detection and faster referral of NCC patients who may benefit from antiparasitic treatment.

Funding: European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership (EDCTP) and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).

背景:神经囊尾蚴病(NCC)是疟原虫流行的农村社区癫痫的主要病因。由于血清学检测和神经影像学检测的缺乏和价格昂贵,NCC的诊断十分困难。本研究旨在评估一种廉价、新型的T.solium横向流动护理点检测(TS POC)在社区环境中诊断NCC的性能:2017年12月至2019年6月期间,在赞比亚东部省辛达地区开展了一项前瞻性数据收集诊断准确性研究,采用两阶段设计。符合条件的参与者接受了 TS POC 测试。之后,对 TS POC CC+ 结果的参与者和 TS POC CC- 结果的参与者子集进行血清学检测,以获得参考测定结果,并进行脑计算机断层扫描(CT),以获得 NCC 的参考诊断结果:共有 1249 人接受了 TS POC 检测,其中 177 人(14%)呈阳性。在接受脑CT检查的151名TS POC CC+和82名TS POC CC-参与者中,分别有35名TS POC CC+和10名TS POC CC-患者患有NCC。TS POC CC条对任何类型NCC的灵敏度为26%(不确定区间[UI] 15-41),与rT24H-EITB(23%,UI 8-48)和血清抗原ELISA(30%,UI 11-58)的估计值相似。TS POC 的特异性为 88%(UI 85-90),rT24H-EITB 为 89%(UI 79-94),抗原 ELISA 为 82%(UI 71-89)。对于有活动期病变的 NCC,TS POC 的灵敏度大于 99%(UI 58->99),rT24H-EITB 为 76%(UI 40-94),抗原 ELISA 为 76%(UI 39-94):在社区环境中,TS POC CC 对活动性 NCC 病变参与者的诊断灵敏度很高。所有测试(TS POC、rT24H-EITB 和抗原 ELISA)对任何阶段的 NCC 的准确性都有限。随着TS POC CC的进一步发展,它可以更好地检测NCC患者,并更快地将其转诊,使其从抗寄生虫治疗中获益:欧洲与发展中国家临床试验合作组织(EDCTP)和德国联邦教育与研究部(BMBF)。
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引用次数: 0
An economic evaluation of breast cancer interventions in Kenya. 对肯尼亚乳腺癌干预措施的经济评估。
IF 9.6 1区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL Pub Date : 2024-10-30 eCollection Date: 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.102894
Brian Hutchinson, Rory Watts, Mary Nyangasi, Benjamin O Anderson, Joyfrida Chepchumba, Elizabeth Wangia, Rose Jalang'o, Valerian Mwenda, Pooja Yerramilli, Toni Lee Kuguru, Kenneth Munge Kabubei, Amparo Gordillo-Tobar, Filip Meheus, Christina Meyer, Andre Ilbawi, Rachel Nugent

Background: Cancer is the third leading cause of death in Kenya. Breast cancer is responsible for 3100 deaths annually. Quantifying the economic and social impacts of breast cancer supports inclusion of cancer care within Kenya's universal healthcare plan.

Methods: Kenya's Ministry of Health led an economic cost-benefit analysis of expanding breast cancer prevention and treatment services. Three scenarios (early diagnosis only, screening with clinical breast exam (CBE-led), and screening with mammography (MG-led)) were modelled using an adapted version of a deterministic state-transition cohort simulation model jointly developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and maintained by Forecast Health. Real world evidence on the favorable stage-shift induced by each early detection scenario was used as model inputs. The model estimated the mortality benefits of favorable stage-shifting, and net financial costs and health and economic benefits in 2020 USD.

Findings: Respectively, over 40 years, the cost to sustain early diagnosis programs only, CBE-led screening, or mammogram-led screening would require 1.4, 2.8, or 5.2 percent increases above current government health spending. All three strategies are economically efficient in the long run. Net economic benefits of expanded breast cancer care using clinical breast exam screening are $2.3 billion dollars (USD) over the next 40 years with 236,000 women's lives saved in Kenya. Mammographic screening provides net benefits of $1.9 billion (USD) with an additional 34,000 lives saved over 40 years compared to the CBE-led screening approach. Over 40 years, an early diagnosis-only strategy saves the fewest lives and has the lowest net benefit among the three strategies.

Interpretation: We offer a novel economic evaluation for breast cancer prevention and care expansion within Universal Health Coverage in Kenya. It demonstrates the economic viability of providing those services in a low-middle income (LMI) context.

Funding: The work was funded by the World Bank Group's Tackling Non-Communicable Diseases Challenges in Low- and Middle-Income Countries Trust Fund, supported by the Access Accelerated Partnership. This report was also partially financed by the Global Financing Facility for Women, Children and Adolescents (GFF). The GFF is a global multi-stakeholder partnership hosted at the World Bank that provides catalytic financing and technical support for safe and equitable delivery of essential health and nutrition services for women, children and adolescents, while helping countries to build more resilient health systems.

背景:癌症是肯尼亚的第三大死因。每年有 3100 人死于乳腺癌。量化乳腺癌的经济和社会影响有助于将癌症治疗纳入肯尼亚的全民医疗保健计划:肯尼亚卫生部牵头对扩大乳腺癌预防和治疗服务进行了经济成本效益分析。使用世界卫生组织(WHO)和国际癌症研究机构(IARC)联合开发的、由 Forecast Health 维护的确定性状态转换队列模拟模型的改编版,对三种方案(仅早期诊断、临床乳腺检查筛查(CBE 主导)和乳腺 X 射线照相筛查(MG 主导))进行了模拟。每个早期检测方案所引起的有利分期转移的现实证据被用作模型输入。该模型估算了有利的阶段转移所带来的死亡率收益,以及以 2020 年美元为单位的净财务成本、健康和经济收益:在 40 年内,仅维持早期诊断项目、CBE 主导的筛查或乳房 X 线照相主导的筛查所需的成本将分别比目前的政府医疗支出增加 1.4%、2.8% 或 5.2%。从长远来看,这三种策略都具有经济效益。在未来 40 年内,通过临床乳房检查筛查来扩大乳腺癌治疗范围的净经济效益为 23 亿美元(USD),可挽救肯尼亚 23.6 万名妇女的生命。与临床乳房检查为主导的筛查方法相比,乳腺 X 线照相筛查的净效益为 19 亿美元,40 年内可挽救 34,000 人的生命。在 40 年中,仅早期诊断策略挽救的生命最少,净效益也是三种策略中最低的:我们为肯尼亚在全民医保范围内扩大乳腺癌预防和治疗提供了一个新颖的经济评估。它证明了在中低收入国家提供这些服务的经济可行性:这项工作由世界银行集团 "应对中低收入国家非传染性疾病挑战信托基金 "资助,并得到了 "加速获取伙伴关系"(Access Accelerated Partnership)的支持。本报告还得到了全球妇女、儿童和青少年融资机制(GFF)的部分资助。全球妇女、儿童和青少年筹资机制是世界银行主持的一个全球多方利益相关者伙伴关系,为安全、公平地向妇女、儿童和青少年提供基本保健和营养服务提供催化资金和技术支持,同时帮助各国建立更具复原力的保健系统。
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引用次数: 0
Incidence of post-acute COVID-19 symptoms across healthcare settings in seven countries: an international retrospective cohort study using routinely-collected data. 七个国家医疗机构中 COVID-19 急性发作后症状的发生率:一项利用常规收集数据进行的国际回顾性队列研究。
IF 9.6 1区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL Pub Date : 2024-10-30 eCollection Date: 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.102903
Junqing Xie, Kim López-Güell, Daniel Dedman, Talita Duarte-Salles, Raivo Kolde, Raúl López-Blasco, Álvaro Martínez, Gregoire Mercier, Alicia Abellan, Johnmary T Arinze, Zara Cuccu, Antonella Delmestri, Dominique Delseny, Sara Khalid, Chungsoo Kim, Ji-Woo Kim, Kristin Kostka, Cora Loste, Lourdes Mateu, Miguel A Mayer, Jaime Meléndez-Cardiel, Núria Mercadé-Besora, Mees Mosseveld, Akihito Nishimura, Hedvig M E Nordeng, Jessie O Oyinlola, Laura Pérez-Crespo, Marta Pineda-Moncusí, Juan Manuel Ramírez-Anguita, Nhung T H Trinh, Anneli Uusküla, Bernardo Valdivieso, Theresa Burkard, Edward Burn, Martí Català, Daniel Prieto-Alhambra, Roger Paredes, Annika M Jödicke
<p><strong>Background: </strong>The World Health Organisation (WHO) has identified a range of symptomatic manifestations to aid in the clinical diagnosis of post-COVID conditions, herein referred to as post-acute COVID-19 symptoms. We conducted an international network cohort study to estimate the burden of these symptoms in North American, European, and Asian populations.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A federated analysis was conducted including 10 databases from the United Kingdom, Netherlands, Norway, Estonia, Spain, France, South Korea, and the United States, between September 1st 2020 and latest data availability (which varied from December 31st 2021 to February 28th 2023), covering primary and secondary care, nationwide registries, and claims data, all mapped to the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership Common Data Model (OMOP CDM). We defined two cohorts for the main analyses: a SARS-CoV-2 infection cohort [positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or rapid lateral flow test (LFT) result or clinical COVID-19 diagnosis] and a general population cohort. Individuals with less than 365 days of prior history or 120 days of follow-up were excluded. We estimated incidence rates (IRs) of the 25 WHO-proposed post-acute COVID-19 symptoms, considering symptoms that occurred ≥90 and ≤365 days after index date, excluding individuals with the respective symptoms 180 days prior to the index event. Stratified analyses were conducted by age and sex. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated comparing rates in the infected cohort versus the general population. Results from the different databases were combined using random-effects meta-analyses.</p><p><strong>Findings: </strong>3,019,408 individuals were included in the infection cohort. 1,585,160 of them were female and 1,434,248 of them male. 929,351,505 individuals were included in the general population group. 461,195,036 of them were female and 466,022,004 of them male. The 1-year IR of any post-acute COVID-19 symptom in the COVID-19 infection cohort varied significantly across databases, from 4.4 (95% CI 3.8-5.1) per 100 person-years to 103.9 (95% CI 103.2-104.7). The five most common symptoms were joint pain (from 1.6 (95% CI 1.3-1.9) to 14.3 (95% CI 14.1-14.6)), abdominal pain (from 0.3 (95% CI 0.1-0.5) to 9.9 (95% CI 9.7-10.1)), gastrointestinal issues (from 0.6 (95% CI 0.4-0.9) to 13.3 (95% CI 13.1-13.6)), cough (from 0.3 (95% CI 0.2-0.5) to 9.1 (95% CI 8.9-9.3)), and anxiety (from 0.8 (95% CI 0.6-1.2) to 11.4 (95% CI 11.2-11.6)); whereas muscle spasms (from 0.01 (95% CI 0.008-0.2) to 1.7 (95% CI 1.6-1.8)), pins and needles (from 0.05 (95% CI 0.03-0.0.9) to 1.5 (95% CI 1.4-1.6)), memory issues (from 0.03 (95% CI 0.02-0.06) to 0.8 (95% CI 0.7-0.8)), cognitive dysfunction (from 0.007 (95% CI 0.004-0.01) to 0.6 (95% CI 0.4-0.8)), and altered smell and/or taste (from 0.04 (95% CI 0.03-0.04) to 0.7 (95% CI 0.6-0.8)) were least common. Incidence rates of any post-acute COVID-19 symptoms general
背景:世界卫生组织(WHO)已确定了一系列症状表现,以帮助临床诊断 COVID 后病症,在此称为急性 COVID-19 后症状。我们开展了一项国际网络队列研究,以估计这些症状在北美、欧洲和亚洲人群中的负担:我们进行了一项联合分析,包括来自英国、荷兰、挪威、爱沙尼亚、西班牙、法国、韩国和美国的 10 个数据库,时间跨度从 2020 年 9 月 1 日到最新数据提供日(从 2021 年 12 月 31 日到 2023 年 2 月 28 日),涵盖初级和二级护理、全国范围的登记和索赔数据,所有数据均映射到观察性医疗结果合作组织通用数据模型(OMOP CDM)。我们为主要分析定义了两个队列:SARS-CoV-2 感染队列(聚合酶链反应(PCR)或快速侧流试验(LFT)结果呈阳性或临床 COVID-19 诊断)和普通人群队列。既往病史少于 365 天或随访时间少于 120 天的个体被排除在外。我们估算了世界卫生组织提出的 25 种 COVID-19 急性期后症状的发病率 (IR),考虑了指数日期后≥90 天和≤365 天出现的症状,排除了指数事件发生前 180 天出现相应症状的个体。按年龄和性别进行了分层分析。将感染人群的发病率与普通人群的发病率进行比较,计算出发病率比(IRR)。使用随机效应荟萃分析将不同数据库的结果进行合并:感染人群中有 3,019,408 人。其中 1,585,160 人为女性,1,434,248 人为男性。普通人群组包括 929 351 505 人。其中 461 195 036 人为女性,466 022 004 人为男性。在COVID-19感染人群中,任何COVID-19急性感染后症状的1年IR在不同数据库中差异显著,从每100人年4.4(95% CI 3.8-5.1)到103.9(95% CI 103.2-104.7)不等。最常见的五种症状是关节痛(从 1.6 (95% CI 1.3-1.9) 到 14.3 (95% CI 14.1-14.6))、腹痛(从 0.3 (95% CI 0.1-0.5) 到 9.9 (95% CI 9.7-10.1))、胃肠道问题(从 0.6(95% CI 0.4-0.9)到13.3(95% CI 13.1-13.6))、咳嗽(从0.3(95% CI 0.2-0.5)到9.1(95% CI 8.9-9.3))和焦虑(从0.8(95% CI 0.6-1.2)到11.4(95% CI 11.2-11.6));而肌肉痉挛(从0.8)、认知功能障碍(从 0.007(95% CI 0.004-0.01)到 0.6(95% CI 0.4-0.8))以及嗅觉和/或味觉改变(从 0.04(95% CI 0.03-0.04)到 0.7(95% CI 0.6-0.8))最不常见。COVID-19急性期后症状的发病率一般随年龄增长而增加,某些症状在中年人(焦虑、抑郁障碍、头痛、嗅觉和味觉改变)中达到高峰,而其他症状则在学龄前儿童(肠胃问题和咳嗽)中达到高峰。在大多数症状中,女性的发病率较高。根据随机效应模型,感染人群中任何 COVID-19 后急性症状的发病率均高于普通人群,元分析发病率比为 1.4(1-2)。所有单个症状的情况也类似。元分析发病率比最高的是抑郁障碍(2.6(1.7-3.9))、焦虑(2.3(1.4-3.8))、过敏(2.1(1.7-2.8))和睡眠障碍(2.1(1.5-2.6))。嗅觉和/或味觉改变的元内比值为 1.9 (1.3-2.8):解释:COVID-19感染后通常会出现世界卫生组织列出的COVID-19急性期后症状。然而,即使在研究方法标准化后,不同医疗机构和地理位置的发病率仍存在显著的异质性。这是国际上首次使用世界卫生组织列出的症状对 COVID-19 急性感染后症状的流行病学进行研究。研究结果有助于从多国角度了解这种疾病的流行病学。这项研究的局限性包括对急性 COVID-19 后症状的定义缺乏共识,以及现有数据集难以反映急性 COVID-19 后症状对日常生活的影响:本研究由欧洲健康数据证据网络(EHDEN)通过证据生成基金(Evidence Generation Fund Grant)和英国国家健康与护理研究所(NIHR)牛津生物医学研究中心(BRC)资助。
{"title":"Incidence of post-acute COVID-19 symptoms across healthcare settings in seven countries: an international retrospective cohort study using routinely-collected data.","authors":"Junqing Xie, Kim López-Güell, Daniel Dedman, Talita Duarte-Salles, Raivo Kolde, Raúl López-Blasco, Álvaro Martínez, Gregoire Mercier, Alicia Abellan, Johnmary T Arinze, Zara Cuccu, Antonella Delmestri, Dominique Delseny, Sara Khalid, Chungsoo Kim, Ji-Woo Kim, Kristin Kostka, Cora Loste, Lourdes Mateu, Miguel A Mayer, Jaime Meléndez-Cardiel, Núria Mercadé-Besora, Mees Mosseveld, Akihito Nishimura, Hedvig M E Nordeng, Jessie O Oyinlola, Laura Pérez-Crespo, Marta Pineda-Moncusí, Juan Manuel Ramírez-Anguita, Nhung T H Trinh, Anneli Uusküla, Bernardo Valdivieso, Theresa Burkard, Edward Burn, Martí Català, Daniel Prieto-Alhambra, Roger Paredes, Annika M Jödicke","doi":"10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.102903","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.102903","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Background: &lt;/strong&gt;The World Health Organisation (WHO) has identified a range of symptomatic manifestations to aid in the clinical diagnosis of post-COVID conditions, herein referred to as post-acute COVID-19 symptoms. We conducted an international network cohort study to estimate the burden of these symptoms in North American, European, and Asian populations.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Methods: &lt;/strong&gt;A federated analysis was conducted including 10 databases from the United Kingdom, Netherlands, Norway, Estonia, Spain, France, South Korea, and the United States, between September 1st 2020 and latest data availability (which varied from December 31st 2021 to February 28th 2023), covering primary and secondary care, nationwide registries, and claims data, all mapped to the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership Common Data Model (OMOP CDM). We defined two cohorts for the main analyses: a SARS-CoV-2 infection cohort [positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or rapid lateral flow test (LFT) result or clinical COVID-19 diagnosis] and a general population cohort. Individuals with less than 365 days of prior history or 120 days of follow-up were excluded. We estimated incidence rates (IRs) of the 25 WHO-proposed post-acute COVID-19 symptoms, considering symptoms that occurred ≥90 and ≤365 days after index date, excluding individuals with the respective symptoms 180 days prior to the index event. Stratified analyses were conducted by age and sex. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated comparing rates in the infected cohort versus the general population. Results from the different databases were combined using random-effects meta-analyses.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Findings: &lt;/strong&gt;3,019,408 individuals were included in the infection cohort. 1,585,160 of them were female and 1,434,248 of them male. 929,351,505 individuals were included in the general population group. 461,195,036 of them were female and 466,022,004 of them male. The 1-year IR of any post-acute COVID-19 symptom in the COVID-19 infection cohort varied significantly across databases, from 4.4 (95% CI 3.8-5.1) per 100 person-years to 103.9 (95% CI 103.2-104.7). The five most common symptoms were joint pain (from 1.6 (95% CI 1.3-1.9) to 14.3 (95% CI 14.1-14.6)), abdominal pain (from 0.3 (95% CI 0.1-0.5) to 9.9 (95% CI 9.7-10.1)), gastrointestinal issues (from 0.6 (95% CI 0.4-0.9) to 13.3 (95% CI 13.1-13.6)), cough (from 0.3 (95% CI 0.2-0.5) to 9.1 (95% CI 8.9-9.3)), and anxiety (from 0.8 (95% CI 0.6-1.2) to 11.4 (95% CI 11.2-11.6)); whereas muscle spasms (from 0.01 (95% CI 0.008-0.2) to 1.7 (95% CI 1.6-1.8)), pins and needles (from 0.05 (95% CI 0.03-0.0.9) to 1.5 (95% CI 1.4-1.6)), memory issues (from 0.03 (95% CI 0.02-0.06) to 0.8 (95% CI 0.7-0.8)), cognitive dysfunction (from 0.007 (95% CI 0.004-0.01) to 0.6 (95% CI 0.4-0.8)), and altered smell and/or taste (from 0.04 (95% CI 0.03-0.04) to 0.7 (95% CI 0.6-0.8)) were least common. Incidence rates of any post-acute COVID-19 symptoms general","PeriodicalId":11393,"journal":{"name":"EClinicalMedicine","volume":"77 ","pages":"102903"},"PeriodicalIF":9.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11564986/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142647666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effectiveness of various CSF diversion surgeries in idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus: a systematic review and meta-analysis. 各种脑脊液引流手术对特发性正常压力脑积水的疗效:系统回顾和荟萃分析。
IF 9.6 1区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL Pub Date : 2024-10-30 eCollection Date: 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.102891
Ahmed Salih, Aksaan Arif, Madhur Varadpande, Rafael Tiza Fernandes, Dragan Jankovic, Darius Kalasauskas, Malte Ottenhausen, Andreas Kramer, Florian Ringel, Santhosh G Thavarajasingam

Background: Idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus (iNPH) is commonly treated using cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) diversion procedures, most commonly ventriculoperitoneal (VP) but also lumboperitoneal (LP), ventriculoatrial (VA) shunting, and endoscopic third-ventriculostomy (ETV). Despite the prevalence of these interventions and recent advancements in iNPH diagnostic processes, there is limited up-to-date evidence regarding surgical outcomes.

Methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted to analyse the effects of CSF diversion surgeries among iNPH patients. The primary outcome was efficacy of the CSF diversion procedure, defined as symptomatic improvement, and secondary outcomes included surgical complications. Several major databases were searched for original studies from inception up to June 4, 2024, which were evaluated using random-effects meta-analyses, meta-regression, and influence analyses. This study was registered with PROSPERO: CRD42023458526.

Findings: Out of the 1963 studies screened, 54 were included in this review, and 4811 patients were pooled. Overall, more than 74% of patients experienced improvement after surgical treatment (95% CI: 70-78%). VP shunting demonstrated an efficacy of 75% (95% CI 70-79%), VA shunting at 75% (95% CI: 70-80%), and LP shunting at 70% (95% CI: 52-83%). ETV had a success rate of 69% (95% CI: 58-78%). Gait improvement was high at 72% (95% CI: 67-77%), while urinary and cognitive dysfunction each improved in approximately 50% of patients. The efficacy of surgery did not increase between 2005 and 2024 (p = 0.54). Complications occurred in 20.6% of cases, with a surgery revision rate of 15.1%.

Interpretation: This meta-analysis found that the overall efficacy of CSF diversion procedures for iNPH remained unchanged from 2005 to 2024, with 74% of cases showing improvement. No procedure was found to be clearly superior, and only half of the patients saw improvements in urinary and cognitive dysfunction. The stagnant efficacy over time and frequent complications highlight the need for improved patient selection criteria to best identify those most likely to benefit from CSF shunting.

Funding: None for this study.

背景:特发性正常压力脑积水(iNPH)通常采用脑脊液(CSF)分流术进行治疗,最常见的是脑室腹腔分流术(VP),但也有腰腹腔分流术(LP)、脑室-心房分流术(VA)和内镜下第三脑室造口术(ETV)。尽管这些干预措施很普遍,而且 iNPH 诊断过程也取得了最新进展,但有关手术效果的最新证据却很有限:方法:对 iNPH 患者的 CSF 转流手术效果进行了系统回顾和荟萃分析。主要结果是 CSF 转流手术的疗效,即症状改善,次要结果包括手术并发症。研究人员在多个主要数据库中搜索了从开始到2024年6月4日的原始研究,并使用随机效应荟萃分析、荟萃回归和影响分析对这些研究进行了评估。本研究已在 PROSPERO 注册:CRD42023458526:在筛选出的 1963 项研究中,有 54 项纳入了本综述,共汇总了 4811 名患者。总体而言,超过 74% 的患者在手术治疗后病情有所改善(95% CI:70-78%)。VP分流的有效率为75%(95% CI:70-79%),VA分流的有效率为75%(95% CI:70-80%),LP分流的有效率为70%(95% CI:52-83%)。ETV 的成功率为 69%(95% CI:58-78%)。步态改善率高达 72%(95% CI:67-77%),约 50%的患者排尿和认知功能障碍均得到改善。2005 年至 2024 年间,手术疗效没有提高(P = 0.54)。20.6%的病例出现并发症,手术翻修率为15.1%:这项荟萃分析发现,从2005年到2024年,CSF转流术治疗iNPH的总体疗效保持不变,74%的病例有所改善。没有发现任何一种手术具有明显的优越性,只有一半的患者在排尿和认知功能障碍方面有所改善。随着时间的推移,疗效停滞不前,并发症频发,这凸显出有必要改进患者选择标准,以最好地确定最有可能从脑脊液分流术中获益的患者:本研究无资金支持。
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引用次数: 0
Development and validation of an interpretable machine learning model for predicting the risk of distant metastasis in papillary thyroid cancer: a multicenter study. 用于预测甲状腺乳头状癌远处转移风险的可解释机器学习模型的开发与验证:一项多中心研究。
IF 9.6 1区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL Pub Date : 2024-10-30 eCollection Date: 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.102913
Fei Hou, Yun Zhu, Hongbo Zhao, Haolin Cai, Yinghui Wang, Xiaoqi Peng, Lin Lu, Rongli He, Yan Hou, Zhenhui Li, Ting Chen
<p><strong>Background: </strong>The survival rate of patients with distant metastasis (DM) of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is significantly reduced. It is of great significance to find an effective method for early prediction of the risk of DM for formulating individualized diagnosis and treatment plans and improving prognosis. Previous studies have significant limitations, and it is still necessary to develop new models for predicting the risk of DM of PTC. We aimed to develop and validate interpretable machine learning (ML) models for early prediction of DM in patients with PTC using a multicenter cohort.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We collected data on patients with PTC who were admitted between June 2013 and May 2023. Data from 1430 patients at Yunnan Cancer Hospital (YCH) served as the training and internal validation set, while data from 434 patients at the First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University (KMU 1st AH) was used as the external test set. Nine ML methods such as random forest (RF) were used to construct the model. Model prediction performance was compared using evaluation indicators such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) method was used to rank the feature importance and explain the final model.</p><p><strong>Findings: </strong>Among the nine ML models, the RF model performed the best. The RF model accurately predicted the risk of DM in patients with PTC in both the internal validation of the training set [AUC: 0.913, 95% confidence interval (CI) (0.9075-0.9185)] and the external test set [AUC: 0.8996, 95% CI (0.8483-0.9509)]. The calibration curve showed high agreement between the predicted and observed risks. In the sensitivity analysis focusing on DM sites of PTC, the RF model exhibited outstanding performance in predicting "lung-only metastasis" showing high AUC, specificity, sensitivity, F1 score, and a low Brier score. SHAP analysis identified variables that contributed to the model predictions. An online calculator based on the RF model was developed and made available for clinicians at https://predictingdistantmetastasis.shinyapps.io/shiny1/. 11 variables were included in the final RF model: age of the patient with PTC, whether the tumor size is > 2 cm, whether the tumor size is ≤ 1 cm, lymphocyte (LYM) count, monocyte (MONO) count, monocyte/lymphocyte ratio (MLR), thyroglobulin (TG) level, thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPOAb) level, whether the T stage is T1/2, whether the T stage is T3/4, and whether the N stage is N0.</p><p><strong>Interpretation: </strong>On the basis of large-sample and multicenter data, we developed and validated an explainable ML model for predicting the risk of DM in patients with PTC. The model helps clinicians to identify high-risk patients early and provides a basis for individualized patient treatment plans.</p><p><strong>Funding: </strong>This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundat
背景:甲状腺乳头状癌(PTC)远处转移(DM)患者的生存率明显降低。找到一种早期预测甲状腺乳头状癌远处转移风险的有效方法,对于制定个体化诊疗方案、改善预后具有重要意义。以往的研究有很大的局限性,因此仍有必要开发新的模型来预测 PTC 的 DM 风险。我们旨在利用多中心队列开发和验证可解释的机器学习(ML)模型,用于早期预测PTC患者的DM:我们收集了 2013 年 6 月至 2023 年 5 月期间收治的 PTC 患者的数据。云南省肿瘤医院(YCH)1430 名患者的数据作为训练集和内部验证集,昆明医科大学第一附属医院(KMU First AH)434 名患者的数据作为外部测试集。模型的构建采用了随机森林(RF)等九种 ML 方法。使用接收者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)等评价指标对模型预测性能进行比较。研究结果:在九个 ML 模型中,RF 模型表现最佳。在训练集的内部验证[AUC:0.913,95% 置信区间(CI)(0.9075-0.9185)]和外部测试集[AUC:0.8996,95% CI(0.8483-0.9509)]中,RF 模型都能准确预测 PTC 患者的 DM 风险。校准曲线显示,预测风险与观测风险之间的一致性很高。在以PTC的DM部位为重点的敏感性分析中,RF模型在预测 "肺转移 "方面表现突出,显示出较高的AUC、特异性、敏感性、F1得分和较低的Brier得分。SHAP分析确定了有助于模型预测的变量。基于 RF 模型开发了在线计算器,供临床医生使用,网址为 https://predictingdistantmetastasis.shinyapps.io/shiny1/。最终的 RF 模型包括 11 个变量:PTC 患者的年龄、肿瘤大小是否大于 2 厘米、肿瘤大小是否小于 1 厘米、淋巴细胞(LYM)计数、单核细胞(MONO)计数、单核细胞/淋巴细胞比值(MLR)、甲状腺球蛋白(TG)水平、甲状腺过氧化物酶抗体(TPOAb)水平、T 期是否为 T1/2、T 期是否为 T3/4、N 期是否为 N0:在大样本和多中心数据的基础上,我们开发并验证了一个可解释的 ML 模型,用于预测 PTC 患者的 DM 风险。该模型有助于临床医生早期识别高风险患者,并为患者的个体化治疗方案提供依据:本研究得到了国家自然科学基金(81960426、82360345、82001986)、云南省基础研究杰出青年科学基金项目(202401AY070001-316)、云南省应用基础研究基金(202401AT070008)、云南省青年拔尖人才万人计划的资助。
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引用次数: 0
UK Congress on Obesity 2024. 英国 2024 年肥胖症大会。
IF 9.6 1区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL Pub Date : 2024-10-30 eCollection Date: 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.102892
Hannah Linne
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引用次数: 0
期刊
EClinicalMedicine
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