Global, regional, and national time trends in incidence for depressive disorders, from 1990 to 2019: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019.

Background: Even with advances in primary health care, depressive disorders remain a major global public health problem. We conducted an in-depth analysis of global, regional and national trends in depressive disorders incidence over the past 30 years.

Methods: Data on the incidence of depressive disorders were obtained by sex (female, male, and both), location (204 countries), age (5-84 years), year (1990-2019) from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. Further, age-period-cohort modeling was used to estimate the net drift, local drift, age, period and cohort effects between 1990 and 2019.

Results: In 2019, although the incidence of depressive disorders has increased by 59.3% to 290 million (95% UI: 256, 328), the age-standardized incidence rate has decreased by 2.35% to 3588.25 per 100,000 people (3152.71, 4060.42) compared to 1990. There was an emerging transition of incidences from the young and middle-aged population to the old population. From 1990 to 2019, the net drift of incidence rate ranged from -0.54% (-0.61%, -0.47%) in low-middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions to 0.52% (0.25%, 0.79%) in high SDI regions. Globally, the incidence rate of depressive disorders increases with age, period effects showing a decreasing risk and cohort effects beginning to decline after the 1960s.

Conclusions: Our current findings reflect substantial health disparities and potential priority-setting of depressive disorders incidence in the three dimensions of age, period and cohort across SDI regions, countries. The scope of healthcare to improve the progression of depressive disorders events can be expanded to include males, females of all ages.