张家口-渤海构造带(华北)地震多模态定量分段分析

IF 1.6 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Journal of Seismology Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI:10.1007/s10950-024-10234-3
Jinmeng Bi, Cheng Song, Fuyang Cao, Yong Ma
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究旨在系统研究张家口-渤海构造带的节段地震活动性特征,以了解该构造带的地震活动特征,识别潜在的强震危险源。根据收集到的地震数据,我们首先结合检波率函数、最大曲率法(MAXC)、拟合优度法(GFT)和震级秩方法等定性和定量方法,确定了最小完全震级。我们使用基于时空 ETAS 模型的随机解簇法获得背景地震度。然后,我们采用了加速矩释放(AMR)模型、Ogata-Katsura 1993(OK1993)模型、矩比(MR)模型和区域-时间-长度(RTL)算法。最后,我们分析了强震的空间迁移。地震序列的完整性震级随时间变化不大,张家口-渤海构造带的最小完整性震级为 2.0。根据上述地震活动性模型提供的结果,我们可以发现构造带不同区段之间的一些差异。张家口和唐山地段与其他地段相比,地震危险性较高,发生强震的可能性较小(地震能量释放较弱)。张家口段的 b 值呈阶梯式下降趋势,反映了应力累积水平的逐步提高,中强地震的危险性在增大。与唐山段和蓬莱段相比,张家口段和北京段的 MR 指数略高,这说明地震发生率在增加,因而中强地震的危险性也在增加。根据 RTL 值,张家口段和唐山段的地震活动偏差相对较大,未来有可能发生中强地震。根据各种地震活动性模型得出的结果和强震的迁移规律,我们可以说,从定性分析的角度看,张家口-渤海构造链各段的总体地震危险性较低。如果说张家口地段是地震危险性相对较高的地段的话,那么张家口地段的地震危险性就需要我们在今后的工作中加以重视。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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Multimodal quantitative segmental analysis of seismicity of the Zhangjiakou-Bohai tectonic belt (North China)

The purpose of this study is to systematically investigate the segmental seismicity features of the Zhangjiakou-Bohai tectonic belt to understand the characteristics of the seismic activity in this tectonic area and identify potential sources of strong earthquake hazard. From the collected seismic data, we first determined the minimum completeness magnitude by combining qualitative and quantitative methods, such as the detection rate function, maximum curvature (MAXC) method, goodness of fit (GFT) method and magnitude-rank method. We used the stochastic declustering method based on the space-time ETAS model to obtain the background seismicity. We then implemented the accelerating moment release (AMR) model, the Ogata-Katsura 1993 (OK1993) model, the moment ratio (MR) model and the Region-Time-Length (RTL) algorithm. Finally, we analyzed the spatial migration of strong earthquakes. The completeness magnitude of the earthquake sequence does not significantly change with time, with the minimum completeness magnitude being 2.0 for the Zhangjiakou-Bohai tectonic zone. The results provided by the aforementioned seismic activity models allow us to detect some differences between sectors of the tectonic belt. The Zhangjiakou and Tangshan segments show a higher level of seismic hazard compared to the others, which have little chance of a strong earthquake occurring (weak release of seismic energy). The b value of the Zhangjiakou segment shows a stepwise downward trend, reflecting the gradual increase of stress accumulation level, and the hazard of moderate-strong earthquakes is increasing. Compared with the Tangshan and Penglai segments, the Zhangjiakou and Beijing sectors have a slightly higher MR index, which means that the rate of earthquake occurrence is increasing and thus the hazard of moderate to strong earthquakes. According to the RTL value, the deviation of seismic activity in the Zhangjiakou and Tangshan segments is relatively high, and there is a possibility of moderate to strong earthquakes in the future. Based on the results obtained from various seismicity models and the migration law of strong earthquakes, we can say that the overall seismic hazard for each sector of the Zhangjiakou-Bohai tectonic chain is low in terms of qualitative analysis. If anything, the Zhangjiakou segment, which is the section with the relatively high seismic hazard level, should require our attention in the future.

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来源期刊
Journal of Seismology
Journal of Seismology 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
3.30
自引率
6.20%
发文量
67
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: Journal of Seismology is an international journal specialising in all observational and theoretical aspects related to earthquake occurrence. Research topics may cover: seismotectonics, seismicity, historical seismicity, seismic source physics, strong ground motion studies, seismic hazard or risk, engineering seismology, physics of fault systems, triggered and induced seismicity, mining seismology, volcano seismology, earthquake prediction, structural investigations ranging from local to regional and global studies with a particular focus on passive experiments.
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