Farmers’ adaptation to climate change and water consumption in southwest Iran: application of switching regression

ABSTRACT: The effects of climate change on the agricultural sector in developing countries have been discussed to a considerable extent in scientific and political circles. This study focuses on the effects of climate change on the agricultural sector and investigates adaptation measures and their effects on agricultural water consumption. Specifically, this study investigates how farmers’ adaptation measures in response to climate change affect water consumption. A choice model was first used to study the factors influencing the adoption of strategies to adapt to climate change by farmers. Then, an endogenous switching regression model and counterfactual analysis were applied to quantify the effect of adaptation strategies on water consumption. To assess the effectiveness of the model introduced, farmers of Bavi County in Khuzestan province, Iran, were chosen as a sample population. Data were collected in a survey of 335 farmers using a multi-stage random sampling method in 2022-2023. The findings indicated that education, access to agricultural extension services, age, and proximity to the market significantly influenced the adoption of adaptation measures. Analysis of various scenarios demonstrated that farmers implementing adaptation strategies had notably lower average water consumption compared to those who did not. Specifically, water management practices had the most substantial effect, reducing water usage by 2277 m³ ha^-1. These results are valuable for informing the development of public policies and agricultural extension programs aimed at promoting successful adaptation strategies among farmers.