ABSTRACT: In this study, we investigated recent changes in frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves and cold waves in western Iran, a semi-arid region where agricultural activities represent the major contribution to the region’s economy. Our results show that heat waves have become significantly more frequent, longer, and more intense since the end of the 20th century, while cold waves have behaved in the inverse way. Through a detailed synoptic analysis, we found that the action centers derived from the expansion of the Azores high pressure over the Arabian Desert and the Iranian plateau were mainly responsible for all heat waves. However, cold waves responded to 4 different patterns, of which the Siberian high pressure was the main atmospheric configuration leading to the most intense and persistent events.
{"title":"Spatio-temporal changes of heat and cold wave patterns in western Iran","authors":"Mehdi Rezaei, Hosein Habibi Manzar","doi":"10.3354/cr01740","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01740","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT: In this study, we investigated recent changes in frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves and cold waves in western Iran, a semi-arid region where agricultural activities represent the major contribution to the region’s economy. Our results show that heat waves have become significantly more frequent, longer, and more intense since the end of the 20th century, while cold waves have behaved in the inverse way. Through a detailed synoptic analysis, we found that the action centers derived from the expansion of the Azores high pressure over the Arabian Desert and the Iranian plateau were mainly responsible for all heat waves. However, cold waves responded to 4 different patterns, of which the Siberian high pressure was the main atmospheric configuration leading to the most intense and persistent events.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"44 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142204572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Q. Zhong#, Y. L. He#, H. Y. Peng, Y. Liu, H. J. Li
ABSTRACT: The global climate has shown an increasing warming trend and the occurrence of abnormal weather has become more frequent as a result. As a leading agricultural province, Jiangxi Province is susceptible to the impacts of weather-related disasters. Utilizing a sample of 324 large grain-farming households in Jiangxi Province and employing the 2-stage least-squares (2SLS) instrumental variables estimator, this study investigates the impact of the adoption of adaptive behavior by grain farmers in response to meteorological disasters on the farming community of the province. The results reveal a significant peer effect on the decision-making process of grain-farming households. Information transmission and role model mechanisms are key ways through which the peer effect manifests. The peer effect on adaptive behavior is more significant in full-time farming households with higher levels of education and larger numbers of family members engaged in agricultural activities than in part-time farming households with lower levels of education and smaller numbers of family members engaged in agricultural activities. This study provides valuable insight into developing a scientifically rational decision-making process for grain-farming households in Jiangxi Province, beyond administrative policy, with the goal of reducing losses incurred by farmers/farming households due to meteorological disasters.
{"title":"Adoption of adaptive behavior and its peer effects on grain growers in Jiangxi Province, China","authors":"Q. Zhong#, Y. L. He#, H. Y. Peng, Y. Liu, H. J. Li","doi":"10.3354/cr01743","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01743","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT: The global climate has shown an increasing warming trend and the occurrence of abnormal weather has become more frequent as a result. As a leading agricultural province, Jiangxi Province is susceptible to the impacts of weather-related disasters. Utilizing a sample of 324 large grain-farming households in Jiangxi Province and employing the 2-stage least-squares (2SLS) instrumental variables estimator, this study investigates the impact of the adoption of adaptive behavior by grain farmers in response to meteorological disasters on the farming community of the province. The results reveal a significant peer effect on the decision-making process of grain-farming households. Information transmission and role model mechanisms are key ways through which the peer effect manifests. The peer effect on adaptive behavior is more significant in full-time farming households with higher levels of education and larger numbers of family members engaged in agricultural activities than in part-time farming households with lower levels of education and smaller numbers of family members engaged in agricultural activities. This study provides valuable insight into developing a scientifically rational decision-making process for grain-farming households in Jiangxi Province, beyond administrative policy, with the goal of reducing losses incurred by farmers/farming households due to meteorological disasters.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142204597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT: The effects of climate change on the agricultural sector in developing countries have been discussed to a considerable extent in scientific and political circles. This study focuses on the effects of climate change on the agricultural sector and investigates adaptation measures and their effects on agricultural water consumption. Specifically, this study investigates how farmers’ adaptation measures in response to climate change affect water consumption. A choice model was first used to study the factors influencing the adoption of strategies to adapt to climate change by farmers. Then, an endogenous switching regression model and counterfactual analysis were applied to quantify the effect of adaptation strategies on water consumption. To assess the effectiveness of the model introduced, farmers of Bavi County in Khuzestan province, Iran, were chosen as a sample population. Data were collected in a survey of 335 farmers using a multi-stage random sampling method in 2022-2023. The findings indicated that education, access to agricultural extension services, age, and proximity to the market significantly influenced the adoption of adaptation measures. Analysis of various scenarios demonstrated that farmers implementing adaptation strategies had notably lower average water consumption compared to those who did not. Specifically, water management practices had the most substantial effect, reducing water usage by 2277 m3 ha-1. These results are valuable for informing the development of public policies and agricultural extension programs aimed at promoting successful adaptation strategies among farmers.
{"title":"Farmers’ adaptation to climate change and water consumption in southwest Iran: application of switching regression","authors":"Mostafa Mardani Najafabadi, Masoumeh Forouzani, Siamak Nikmehr","doi":"10.3354/cr01742","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01742","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT: The effects of climate change on the agricultural sector in developing countries have been discussed to a considerable extent in scientific and political circles. This study focuses on the effects of climate change on the agricultural sector and investigates adaptation measures and their effects on agricultural water consumption. Specifically, this study investigates how farmers’ adaptation measures in response to climate change affect water consumption. A choice model was first used to study the factors influencing the adoption of strategies to adapt to climate change by farmers. Then, an endogenous switching regression model and counterfactual analysis were applied to quantify the effect of adaptation strategies on water consumption. To assess the effectiveness of the model introduced, farmers of Bavi County in Khuzestan province, Iran, were chosen as a sample population. Data were collected in a survey of 335 farmers using a multi-stage random sampling method in 2022-2023. The findings indicated that education, access to agricultural extension services, age, and proximity to the market significantly influenced the adoption of adaptation measures. Analysis of various scenarios demonstrated that farmers implementing adaptation strategies had notably lower average water consumption compared to those who did not. Specifically, water management practices had the most substantial effect, reducing water usage by 2277 m<sup>3</sup> ha<sup>-1</sup>. These results are valuable for informing the development of public policies and agricultural extension programs aimed at promoting successful adaptation strategies among farmers.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141882626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Zhiqiang Cheng, Mingyang Zhang, Xiaona Cheng, Xiaoxiao Ma, Yubing Fan
ABSTRACT: Genetically modified insect-resistant cotton has been recognized as a potential technological means of adapting to climate change, but much remains unknown about how it affects factor efficiency. Using panel data for China from 1993 to 2020, this study explored the impact of genetically modified insect-resistant cotton on the factor efficiency of cotton production under climate change. We found that the adoption of genetically modified insect-resistant cotton significantly increases the output elasticity of pesticides while diminishing that of fertilizer, but has no effect on labor. This is mainly because it reduces the input of pesticides, which is otherwise expected to increase as a result of pest outbreaks caused by climate change. In contrast, it increases fertilizer input and thus reduces the output elasticity of fertilizer. Additionally, the effects on pesticide and fertilizer elasticity were weaker in the Yangtze River basin and northwest China, but stronger in the Yellow River basin. These findings provide a better understanding of how agricultural production factor efficiency responds to the adoption of adaptive behaviors under climate change. They can also serve as a reference to assist farmers in evaluating the effectiveness of adaptive behaviors and optimizing resource allocation for climate change adaptation.
{"title":"Improving factor efficiency under climate change through adaptive behavior: analysis of genetically modified insect-resistant cotton","authors":"Zhiqiang Cheng, Mingyang Zhang, Xiaona Cheng, Xiaoxiao Ma, Yubing Fan","doi":"10.3354/cr01741","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01741","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT: Genetically modified insect-resistant cotton has been recognized as a potential technological means of adapting to climate change, but much remains unknown about how it affects factor efficiency. Using panel data for China from 1993 to 2020, this study explored the impact of genetically modified insect-resistant cotton on the factor efficiency of cotton production under climate change. We found that the adoption of genetically modified insect-resistant cotton significantly increases the output elasticity of pesticides while diminishing that of fertilizer, but has no effect on labor. This is mainly because it reduces the input of pesticides, which is otherwise expected to increase as a result of pest outbreaks caused by climate change. In contrast, it increases fertilizer input and thus reduces the output elasticity of fertilizer. Additionally, the effects on pesticide and fertilizer elasticity were weaker in the Yangtze River basin and northwest China, but stronger in the Yellow River basin. These findings provide a better understanding of how agricultural production factor efficiency responds to the adoption of adaptive behaviors under climate change. They can also serve as a reference to assist farmers in evaluating the effectiveness of adaptive behaviors and optimizing resource allocation for climate change adaptation.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"40 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141882530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT: We explore the agroecological methods that rice farmers of Myanmar employ for adapting to climate change, the factors influencing their adaptation strategies, the extent of their adaptive capacity (AC), and the connection between AC and rice yield. We randomly selected 197 farming households in 2 villages for a community-based survey. To collect qualitative data, 7 key informant interviews and 2 focus group discussions were conducted in 2 sampled villages in Kyaukse Township, Mandalay Region. The study utilized descriptive analysis, multiple regression (MR) analysis, and an adaptive capacity index for data examination. The most practiced adaptation strategies among rice farmers with high AC included crop diversification (adopted by 98% of farmers), utilization of climate-resistant varieties (92%), and modification of planting techniques (87%). The MR analysis revealed that personal factors, such as level of education and years of agricultural practice, along with social factors, such as access to credit, irrigation, cooperative memberships, participation in training, and access to information dissemination, were significant positive determinants of the farmers’ choice of adaptation methods. Farmers with high AC were found to have a higher rice yield (4506.46 kg ha-1) compared to those with low AC (3392.56 kg ha-1). The overall AC was assessed to be at a moderate level (0.53) for farmers in these communities. It is recommended that relevant government and private entities promote community education and communication networks to foster adaptation initiatives. The improvement of irrigation and credit facilities in a systematic and strategic manner would meaningfully enhance the long-term AC of farmers.
{"title":"Adaptation to climate impacts on rice production: an analysis of dry zone farmers in central Myanmar","authors":"Thandar Win Maung, Sayamol Charoenratana","doi":"10.3354/cr01738","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01738","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT: We explore the agroecological methods that rice farmers of Myanmar employ for adapting to climate change, the factors influencing their adaptation strategies, the extent of their adaptive capacity (AC), and the connection between AC and rice yield. We randomly selected 197 farming households in 2 villages for a community-based survey. To collect qualitative data, 7 key informant interviews and 2 focus group discussions were conducted in 2 sampled villages in Kyaukse Township, Mandalay Region. The study utilized descriptive analysis, multiple regression (MR) analysis, and an adaptive capacity index for data examination. The most practiced adaptation strategies among rice farmers with high AC included crop diversification (adopted by 98% of farmers), utilization of climate-resistant varieties (92%), and modification of planting techniques (87%). The MR analysis revealed that personal factors, such as level of education and years of agricultural practice, along with social factors, such as access to credit, irrigation, cooperative memberships, participation in training, and access to information dissemination, were significant positive determinants of the farmers’ choice of adaptation methods. Farmers with high AC were found to have a higher rice yield (4506.46 kg ha<sup>-1</sup>) compared to those with low AC (3392.56 kg ha<sup>-</sup><sup>1</sup>). The overall AC was assessed to be at a moderate level (0.53) for farmers in these communities. It is recommended that relevant government and private entities promote community education and communication networks to foster adaptation initiatives. The improvement of irrigation and credit facilities in a systematic and strategic manner would meaningfully enhance the long-term AC of farmers.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141586052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT: In recent decades, changes in climatic conditions such as temperature and weather trends have been observed globally and these changes significantly influence the frequency and intensity of natural disasters. Vietnam is a coastal country with a high annual risk of exposure to extreme weather and climate hazards. As a result, the number of people affected and the resulting social and economic damage are likely to increase accordingly. To acquire insights into the potential harmful consequences of climate change, this study evaluates evidence of climate hazards and their potential risks and health impacts across Vietnam. Data on climate change (surface temperature trends), climate hazard events, major risks of climate hazards (floods and storms) and health outcomes (death, injury, disease and mental health) were assembled from materials published since 2008. Quantitative and qualitative analyses were performed on the data obtained in order to evaluate major trends and impacts. The findings indicate that climate hazard events have increased significantly in the last 2 decades, especially the incidence of storms and floods, implicating the influence of temperature rise and climate change. The major human health costs of climate hazards are fatalities, injuries, infectious diseases and mental health issues. Moreover, climate hazards also induce mental health problems indirectly, by causing ecosystem service degradation and social and economic loss. The findings provide a basis of understanding from which to develop relevant strategies and specific measures to mitigate the harmful effects of climate hazards.
{"title":"Risks and health impacts of climate hazards in Vietnam","authors":"Dang Thi Nhu Y","doi":"10.3354/cr01739","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01739","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT: In recent decades, changes in climatic conditions such as temperature and weather trends have been observed globally and these changes significantly influence the frequency and intensity of natural disasters. Vietnam is a coastal country with a high annual risk of exposure to extreme weather and climate hazards. As a result, the number of people affected and the resulting social and economic damage are likely to increase accordingly. To acquire insights into the potential harmful consequences of climate change, this study evaluates evidence of climate hazards and their potential risks and health impacts across Vietnam. Data on climate change (surface temperature trends), climate hazard events, major risks of climate hazards (floods and storms) and health outcomes (death, injury, disease and mental health) were assembled from materials published since 2008. Quantitative and qualitative analyses were performed on the data obtained in order to evaluate major trends and impacts. The findings indicate that climate hazard events have increased significantly in the last 2 decades, especially the incidence of storms and floods, implicating the influence of temperature rise and climate change. The major human health costs of climate hazards are fatalities, injuries, infectious diseases and mental health issues. Moreover, climate hazards also induce mental health problems indirectly, by causing ecosystem service degradation and social and economic loss. The findings provide a basis of understanding from which to develop relevant strategies and specific measures to mitigate the harmful effects of climate hazards.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141508481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Eromose E. Ebhuoma, Llewellyn Leonard, Michael Gebreslasie
ABSTRACT: The concept of a ‘Riskscape’ serves as a proactive framework intertwining risk, geographical space, and human practices. It sheds light on how diverse stakeholders perceive phenomena and take action to navigate the future and address emerging risks. This study applies the riskscape concept to comprehend the impact of climate change, coupled with non-climatic risks, on vulnerable households in KwaMaye village, rural KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), South Africa. The research also explores how local farmers envision their future amidst the prevailing conditions. Qualitative methods were employed to gather primary data from purposefully selected participants in KwaMaye. The findings reveal that climatic risks contributing to households’ vulnerability include droughts, heavy rainfall, and flooding, among other factors. Non-climatic risks emanate from issues such as an increasing livestock population, diminishing grazing fields, and delays in provincial government assistance. The convergence of climatic and non-climatic risks forms riskscapes that significantly impede most households’ ability to engage effectively in livestock and food production. This is partly due to the lack of nutritious pastures during droughts. In response to the scarcity of nutritious pastures during extreme droughts, resource-constrained farmers resort to illegally accessing nearby commercial irrigated farmlands to allow their livestock to forage. However, this action carries a substantial fine if they are caught. Despite the challenges, respondents express reluctance to reduce their livestock numbers in the face of frequent droughts. However, many argue that they may be compelled to abandon food production if the issues related to these riskscapes are not promptly addressed.
{"title":"Envisioning the future in the light of climatic and non-climatic riskscapes: lessons from KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa","authors":"Eromose E. Ebhuoma, Llewellyn Leonard, Michael Gebreslasie","doi":"10.3354/cr01737","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01737","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT: The concept of a ‘Riskscape’ serves as a proactive framework intertwining risk, geographical space, and human practices. It sheds light on how diverse stakeholders perceive phenomena and take action to navigate the future and address emerging risks. This study applies the riskscape concept to comprehend the impact of climate change, coupled with non-climatic risks, on vulnerable households in KwaMaye village, rural KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), South Africa. The research also explores how local farmers envision their future amidst the prevailing conditions. Qualitative methods were employed to gather primary data from purposefully selected participants in KwaMaye. The findings reveal that climatic risks contributing to households’ vulnerability include droughts, heavy rainfall, and flooding, among other factors. Non-climatic risks emanate from issues such as an increasing livestock population, diminishing grazing fields, and delays in provincial government assistance. The convergence of climatic and non-climatic risks forms riskscapes that significantly impede most households’ ability to engage effectively in livestock and food production. This is partly due to the lack of nutritious pastures during droughts. In response to the scarcity of nutritious pastures during extreme droughts, resource-constrained farmers resort to illegally accessing nearby commercial irrigated farmlands to allow their livestock to forage. However, this action carries a substantial fine if they are caught. Despite the challenges, respondents express reluctance to reduce their livestock numbers in the face of frequent droughts. However, many argue that they may be compelled to abandon food production if the issues related to these riskscapes are not promptly addressed.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"119 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140797860","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT: The aim of this study was to determine the way recent climate change impacts the morphometric changes in lakes in various ecological zones of Mongolia. We studied 4 lakes located between 48 and 50°N as representative of other environmental zones of Mongolia and determined the correlation between climate variables and changes in the area, depth, and volume of these lakes. To analyze changes in the morphometric parameter variation in the lakes, we used the normalized difference water index, trend analysis, aridity index, and statistical analysis. According to our calculations, the area, depth, and volume of the lakes have decreased during the last 30 yr. Trend analysis showed that the average air temperature has significantly increased since 2000. Furthermore, the morphometric parameters (area, volume) of lakes decreased for all studied lakes, with R2 = 0.023 to 0.457. This study shows that ongoing climate warming in Mongolia has increased intensively since 2000, which is directly affecting the morphometric parameters of the lakes by reducing their area and volume. The calculation of the aridity index proved that the degree of dryness was intense in regions with high climate resources. The results presented in this article can help us understand the spatio-temporal patterns and causes of the morphometric changes in the lakes in relation to climate change in Mongolia.
{"title":"Changes in morphometric parameters of lakes in different ecological zones of Mongolia: implications of climate change","authors":"Altanbold Enkhbold, Li Dingjun, Byambabayar Ganbold, Gansukh Yadamsuren, Boldsaikhan Tsasanchimeg, Sandelger Dorligjav, Odkhuu Nyamsuren, Batsuren Dorjsuren, Tuvshin Gerelmaa, Batnyambuu Dashpurev, Rentsenduger Boldbayar","doi":"10.3354/cr01734","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01734","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT: The aim of this study was to determine the way recent climate change impacts the morphometric changes in lakes in various ecological zones of Mongolia. We studied 4 lakes located between 48 and 50°N as representative of other environmental zones of Mongolia and determined the correlation between climate variables and changes in the area, depth, and volume of these lakes. To analyze changes in the morphometric parameter variation in the lakes, we used the normalized difference water index, trend analysis, aridity index, and statistical analysis. According to our calculations, the area, depth, and volume of the lakes have decreased during the last 30 yr. Trend analysis showed that the average air temperature has significantly increased since 2000. Furthermore, the morphometric parameters (area, volume) of lakes decreased for all studied lakes, with R<sup>2</sup> = 0.023 to 0.457. This study shows that ongoing climate warming in Mongolia has increased intensively since 2000, which is directly affecting the morphometric parameters of the lakes by reducing their area and volume. The calculation of the aridity index proved that the degree of dryness was intense in regions with high climate resources. The results presented in this article can help us understand the spatio-temporal patterns and causes of the morphometric changes in the lakes in relation to climate change in Mongolia.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"110 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140125993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dang Nguyen Dong Phuong, Nguyen Duc Vu, Nguyen Kim Loi
ABSTRACT: Climate risks have posed a major threat to many local communities living in low-lying coastal megacities across the globe, including Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Hence, this study first aimed to contribute towards a comprehensive understanding of temporal trend patterns of annual rainfall and absolute extremes in Ho Chi Minh City over the last 4 decades (1980-2022) through multiple non-parametric statistical trend tests. We employed the quantile delta mapping (QDM) method to develop daily bias-corrected rainfall data based on the outputs in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) under 8 shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Evaluation of model performance was implemented by repeatedly omitting 5 successive years in turn for estimating testing errors. The outcomes indicate the high applicability of well-calibrated transfer functions, even for high quantiles, to the production of future rainfall scenarios. The projected changes in annual rainfall and absolute extremes were obtained by estimating multi-model medians from CMIP6 models for future periods (i.e. 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100), with reference to the base period (1995-2014). In general, annual rainfall in Ho Chi Minh City is projected to increase substantially, and Thu Duc station consistently shows the highest increases in annual rainfall. Projected changes are approximately 30.9% (8.3 to 77.8%) under the high-end scenario (i.e. SSP5-8.5) by the end of the 21st century. It is expected that these findings will yield several solid arguments for mitigating climate-related risks in Ho Chi Minh City.
{"title":"Historical trends and future projections of annual rainfall from CMIP6 models in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam","authors":"Dang Nguyen Dong Phuong, Nguyen Duc Vu, Nguyen Kim Loi","doi":"10.3354/cr01736","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01736","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT: Climate risks have posed a major threat to many local communities living in low-lying coastal megacities across the globe, including Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Hence, this study first aimed to contribute towards a comprehensive understanding of temporal trend patterns of annual rainfall and absolute extremes in Ho Chi Minh City over the last 4 decades (1980-2022) through multiple non-parametric statistical trend tests. We employed the quantile delta mapping (QDM) method to develop daily bias-corrected rainfall data based on the outputs in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) under 8 shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Evaluation of model performance was implemented by repeatedly omitting 5 successive years in turn for estimating testing errors. The outcomes indicate the high applicability of well-calibrated transfer functions, even for high quantiles, to the production of future rainfall scenarios. The projected changes in annual rainfall and absolute extremes were obtained by estimating multi-model medians from CMIP6 models for future periods (i.e. 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100), with reference to the base period (1995-2014). In general, annual rainfall in Ho Chi Minh City is projected to increase substantially, and Thu Duc station consistently shows the highest increases in annual rainfall. Projected changes are approximately 30.9% (8.3 to 77.8%) under the high-end scenario (i.e. SSP5-8.5) by the end of the 21st century. It is expected that these findings will yield several solid arguments for mitigating climate-related risks in Ho Chi Minh City.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"363 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140125923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT: This research links global climate to regional weather by considering Caribbean trade wind strength in the context of the large-scale Walker circulation across the Pacific-Atlantic basins, and localized processes involving air-sea interactions between freshwater flux, the ocean mixed-layer depth, and topographic channeling of airflow north of Colombia. Trade wind driven coastal upwelling in the southern Caribbean is enhanced by the Andes Mountains, and creates a focal point for summer climate variability. This emerges in empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of June-July surface zonal winds in the period 1979-2022. Highest EOF loading occurs at 12° N, 75° W northwest of Colombia. Point-to-field correlations with the EOF time score reflect a Pacific-Atlantic thermal dipole and Walker circulation linked with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). As southern Caribbean trade winds weaken, run-off increases, the upper ocean becomes buoyant, and westward currents slacken. Composite differences show that slow trade-wind conditions in June-July induce a counter-current that spreads warm fresh water northeastward from Colombia. This plume disperses toward the Antilles Islands with sufficient memory to triple the number of tropical cyclones in August-September. A slow trade-wind case study in June 2011 emphasizes key air-sea interactions. Channeling of the large-scale airflow north of the Andes Mountains creates a narrow atmospheric bridge for transmission of ENSO signals.
{"title":"Topographically channeled ocean-atmosphere coupling in the southern Caribbean and summer climate variability","authors":"Mark R. Jury","doi":"10.3354/cr01733","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01733","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT: This research links global climate to regional weather by considering Caribbean trade wind strength in the context of the large-scale Walker circulation across the Pacific-Atlantic basins, and localized processes involving air-sea interactions between freshwater flux, the ocean mixed-layer depth, and topographic channeling of airflow north of Colombia. Trade wind driven coastal upwelling in the southern Caribbean is enhanced by the Andes Mountains, and creates a focal point for summer climate variability. This emerges in empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of June-July surface zonal winds in the period 1979-2022. Highest EOF loading occurs at 12° N, 75° W northwest of Colombia. Point-to-field correlations with the EOF time score reflect a Pacific-Atlantic thermal dipole and Walker circulation linked with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). As southern Caribbean trade winds weaken, run-off increases, the upper ocean becomes buoyant, and westward currents slacken. Composite differences show that slow trade-wind conditions in June-July induce a counter-current that spreads warm fresh water northeastward from Colombia. This plume disperses toward the Antilles Islands with sufficient memory to triple the number of tropical cyclones in August-September. A slow trade-wind case study in June 2011 emphasizes key air-sea interactions. Channeling of the large-scale airflow north of the Andes Mountains creates a narrow atmospheric bridge for transmission of ENSO signals.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139658460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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