ABSTRACT: In recent decades, changes in climatic conditions such as temperature and weather trends have been observed globally and these changes significantly influence the frequency and intensity of natural disasters. Vietnam is a coastal country with a high annual risk of exposure to extreme weather and climate hazards. As a result, the number of people affected and the resulting social and economic damage are likely to increase accordingly. To acquire insights into the potential harmful consequences of climate change, this study evaluates evidence of climate hazards and their potential risks and health impacts across Vietnam. Data on climate change (surface temperature trends), climate hazard events, major risks of climate hazards (floods and storms) and health outcomes (death, injury, disease and mental health) were assembled from materials published since 2008. Quantitative and qualitative analyses were performed on the data obtained in order to evaluate major trends and impacts. The findings indicate that climate hazard events have increased significantly in the last 2 decades, especially the incidence of storms and floods, implicating the influence of temperature rise and climate change. The major human health costs of climate hazards are fatalities, injuries, infectious diseases and mental health issues. Moreover, climate hazards also induce mental health problems indirectly, by causing ecosystem service degradation and social and economic loss. The findings provide a basis of understanding from which to develop relevant strategies and specific measures to mitigate the harmful effects of climate hazards.
{"title":"Risks and health impacts of climate hazards in Vietnam","authors":"Dang Thi Nhu Y","doi":"10.3354/cr01739","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01739","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT: In recent decades, changes in climatic conditions such as temperature and weather trends have been observed globally and these changes significantly influence the frequency and intensity of natural disasters. Vietnam is a coastal country with a high annual risk of exposure to extreme weather and climate hazards. As a result, the number of people affected and the resulting social and economic damage are likely to increase accordingly. To acquire insights into the potential harmful consequences of climate change, this study evaluates evidence of climate hazards and their potential risks and health impacts across Vietnam. Data on climate change (surface temperature trends), climate hazard events, major risks of climate hazards (floods and storms) and health outcomes (death, injury, disease and mental health) were assembled from materials published since 2008. Quantitative and qualitative analyses were performed on the data obtained in order to evaluate major trends and impacts. The findings indicate that climate hazard events have increased significantly in the last 2 decades, especially the incidence of storms and floods, implicating the influence of temperature rise and climate change. The major human health costs of climate hazards are fatalities, injuries, infectious diseases and mental health issues. Moreover, climate hazards also induce mental health problems indirectly, by causing ecosystem service degradation and social and economic loss. The findings provide a basis of understanding from which to develop relevant strategies and specific measures to mitigate the harmful effects of climate hazards.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141508481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Eromose E. Ebhuoma, Llewellyn Leonard, Michael Gebreslasie
ABSTRACT: The concept of a ‘Riskscape’ serves as a proactive framework intertwining risk, geographical space, and human practices. It sheds light on how diverse stakeholders perceive phenomena and take action to navigate the future and address emerging risks. This study applies the riskscape concept to comprehend the impact of climate change, coupled with non-climatic risks, on vulnerable households in KwaMaye village, rural KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), South Africa. The research also explores how local farmers envision their future amidst the prevailing conditions. Qualitative methods were employed to gather primary data from purposefully selected participants in KwaMaye. The findings reveal that climatic risks contributing to households’ vulnerability include droughts, heavy rainfall, and flooding, among other factors. Non-climatic risks emanate from issues such as an increasing livestock population, diminishing grazing fields, and delays in provincial government assistance. The convergence of climatic and non-climatic risks forms riskscapes that significantly impede most households’ ability to engage effectively in livestock and food production. This is partly due to the lack of nutritious pastures during droughts. In response to the scarcity of nutritious pastures during extreme droughts, resource-constrained farmers resort to illegally accessing nearby commercial irrigated farmlands to allow their livestock to forage. However, this action carries a substantial fine if they are caught. Despite the challenges, respondents express reluctance to reduce their livestock numbers in the face of frequent droughts. However, many argue that they may be compelled to abandon food production if the issues related to these riskscapes are not promptly addressed.
{"title":"Envisioning the future in the light of climatic and non-climatic riskscapes: lessons from KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa","authors":"Eromose E. Ebhuoma, Llewellyn Leonard, Michael Gebreslasie","doi":"10.3354/cr01737","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01737","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT: The concept of a ‘Riskscape’ serves as a proactive framework intertwining risk, geographical space, and human practices. It sheds light on how diverse stakeholders perceive phenomena and take action to navigate the future and address emerging risks. This study applies the riskscape concept to comprehend the impact of climate change, coupled with non-climatic risks, on vulnerable households in KwaMaye village, rural KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), South Africa. The research also explores how local farmers envision their future amidst the prevailing conditions. Qualitative methods were employed to gather primary data from purposefully selected participants in KwaMaye. The findings reveal that climatic risks contributing to households’ vulnerability include droughts, heavy rainfall, and flooding, among other factors. Non-climatic risks emanate from issues such as an increasing livestock population, diminishing grazing fields, and delays in provincial government assistance. The convergence of climatic and non-climatic risks forms riskscapes that significantly impede most households’ ability to engage effectively in livestock and food production. This is partly due to the lack of nutritious pastures during droughts. In response to the scarcity of nutritious pastures during extreme droughts, resource-constrained farmers resort to illegally accessing nearby commercial irrigated farmlands to allow their livestock to forage. However, this action carries a substantial fine if they are caught. Despite the challenges, respondents express reluctance to reduce their livestock numbers in the face of frequent droughts. However, many argue that they may be compelled to abandon food production if the issues related to these riskscapes are not promptly addressed.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140797860","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT: The aim of this study was to determine the way recent climate change impacts the morphometric changes in lakes in various ecological zones of Mongolia. We studied 4 lakes located between 48 and 50°N as representative of other environmental zones of Mongolia and determined the correlation between climate variables and changes in the area, depth, and volume of these lakes. To analyze changes in the morphometric parameter variation in the lakes, we used the normalized difference water index, trend analysis, aridity index, and statistical analysis. According to our calculations, the area, depth, and volume of the lakes have decreased during the last 30 yr. Trend analysis showed that the average air temperature has significantly increased since 2000. Furthermore, the morphometric parameters (area, volume) of lakes decreased for all studied lakes, with R2 = 0.023 to 0.457. This study shows that ongoing climate warming in Mongolia has increased intensively since 2000, which is directly affecting the morphometric parameters of the lakes by reducing their area and volume. The calculation of the aridity index proved that the degree of dryness was intense in regions with high climate resources. The results presented in this article can help us understand the spatio-temporal patterns and causes of the morphometric changes in the lakes in relation to climate change in Mongolia.
{"title":"Changes in morphometric parameters of lakes in different ecological zones of Mongolia: implications of climate change","authors":"Altanbold Enkhbold, Li Dingjun, Byambabayar Ganbold, Gansukh Yadamsuren, Boldsaikhan Tsasanchimeg, Sandelger Dorligjav, Odkhuu Nyamsuren, Batsuren Dorjsuren, Tuvshin Gerelmaa, Batnyambuu Dashpurev, Rentsenduger Boldbayar","doi":"10.3354/cr01734","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01734","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT: The aim of this study was to determine the way recent climate change impacts the morphometric changes in lakes in various ecological zones of Mongolia. We studied 4 lakes located between 48 and 50°N as representative of other environmental zones of Mongolia and determined the correlation between climate variables and changes in the area, depth, and volume of these lakes. To analyze changes in the morphometric parameter variation in the lakes, we used the normalized difference water index, trend analysis, aridity index, and statistical analysis. According to our calculations, the area, depth, and volume of the lakes have decreased during the last 30 yr. Trend analysis showed that the average air temperature has significantly increased since 2000. Furthermore, the morphometric parameters (area, volume) of lakes decreased for all studied lakes, with R<sup>2</sup> = 0.023 to 0.457. This study shows that ongoing climate warming in Mongolia has increased intensively since 2000, which is directly affecting the morphometric parameters of the lakes by reducing their area and volume. The calculation of the aridity index proved that the degree of dryness was intense in regions with high climate resources. The results presented in this article can help us understand the spatio-temporal patterns and causes of the morphometric changes in the lakes in relation to climate change in Mongolia.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140125993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dang Nguyen Dong Phuong, Nguyen Duc Vu, Nguyen Kim Loi
ABSTRACT: Climate risks have posed a major threat to many local communities living in low-lying coastal megacities across the globe, including Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Hence, this study first aimed to contribute towards a comprehensive understanding of temporal trend patterns of annual rainfall and absolute extremes in Ho Chi Minh City over the last 4 decades (1980-2022) through multiple non-parametric statistical trend tests. We employed the quantile delta mapping (QDM) method to develop daily bias-corrected rainfall data based on the outputs in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) under 8 shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Evaluation of model performance was implemented by repeatedly omitting 5 successive years in turn for estimating testing errors. The outcomes indicate the high applicability of well-calibrated transfer functions, even for high quantiles, to the production of future rainfall scenarios. The projected changes in annual rainfall and absolute extremes were obtained by estimating multi-model medians from CMIP6 models for future periods (i.e. 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100), with reference to the base period (1995-2014). In general, annual rainfall in Ho Chi Minh City is projected to increase substantially, and Thu Duc station consistently shows the highest increases in annual rainfall. Projected changes are approximately 30.9% (8.3 to 77.8%) under the high-end scenario (i.e. SSP5-8.5) by the end of the 21st century. It is expected that these findings will yield several solid arguments for mitigating climate-related risks in Ho Chi Minh City.
{"title":"Historical trends and future projections of annual rainfall from CMIP6 models in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam","authors":"Dang Nguyen Dong Phuong, Nguyen Duc Vu, Nguyen Kim Loi","doi":"10.3354/cr01736","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01736","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT: Climate risks have posed a major threat to many local communities living in low-lying coastal megacities across the globe, including Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Hence, this study first aimed to contribute towards a comprehensive understanding of temporal trend patterns of annual rainfall and absolute extremes in Ho Chi Minh City over the last 4 decades (1980-2022) through multiple non-parametric statistical trend tests. We employed the quantile delta mapping (QDM) method to develop daily bias-corrected rainfall data based on the outputs in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) under 8 shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Evaluation of model performance was implemented by repeatedly omitting 5 successive years in turn for estimating testing errors. The outcomes indicate the high applicability of well-calibrated transfer functions, even for high quantiles, to the production of future rainfall scenarios. The projected changes in annual rainfall and absolute extremes were obtained by estimating multi-model medians from CMIP6 models for future periods (i.e. 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100), with reference to the base period (1995-2014). In general, annual rainfall in Ho Chi Minh City is projected to increase substantially, and Thu Duc station consistently shows the highest increases in annual rainfall. Projected changes are approximately 30.9% (8.3 to 77.8%) under the high-end scenario (i.e. SSP5-8.5) by the end of the 21st century. It is expected that these findings will yield several solid arguments for mitigating climate-related risks in Ho Chi Minh City.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140125923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
ABSTRACT: This research links global climate to regional weather by considering Caribbean trade wind strength in the context of the large-scale Walker circulation across the Pacific-Atlantic basins, and localized processes involving air-sea interactions between freshwater flux, the ocean mixed-layer depth, and topographic channeling of airflow north of Colombia. Trade wind driven coastal upwelling in the southern Caribbean is enhanced by the Andes Mountains, and creates a focal point for summer climate variability. This emerges in empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of June-July surface zonal winds in the period 1979-2022. Highest EOF loading occurs at 12° N, 75° W northwest of Colombia. Point-to-field correlations with the EOF time score reflect a Pacific-Atlantic thermal dipole and Walker circulation linked with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). As southern Caribbean trade winds weaken, run-off increases, the upper ocean becomes buoyant, and westward currents slacken. Composite differences show that slow trade-wind conditions in June-July induce a counter-current that spreads warm fresh water northeastward from Colombia. This plume disperses toward the Antilles Islands with sufficient memory to triple the number of tropical cyclones in August-September. A slow trade-wind case study in June 2011 emphasizes key air-sea interactions. Channeling of the large-scale airflow north of the Andes Mountains creates a narrow atmospheric bridge for transmission of ENSO signals.
{"title":"Topographically channeled ocean-atmosphere coupling in the southern Caribbean and summer climate variability","authors":"Mark R. Jury","doi":"10.3354/cr01733","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01733","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT: This research links global climate to regional weather by considering Caribbean trade wind strength in the context of the large-scale Walker circulation across the Pacific-Atlantic basins, and localized processes involving air-sea interactions between freshwater flux, the ocean mixed-layer depth, and topographic channeling of airflow north of Colombia. Trade wind driven coastal upwelling in the southern Caribbean is enhanced by the Andes Mountains, and creates a focal point for summer climate variability. This emerges in empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of June-July surface zonal winds in the period 1979-2022. Highest EOF loading occurs at 12° N, 75° W northwest of Colombia. Point-to-field correlations with the EOF time score reflect a Pacific-Atlantic thermal dipole and Walker circulation linked with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). As southern Caribbean trade winds weaken, run-off increases, the upper ocean becomes buoyant, and westward currents slacken. Composite differences show that slow trade-wind conditions in June-July induce a counter-current that spreads warm fresh water northeastward from Colombia. This plume disperses toward the Antilles Islands with sufficient memory to triple the number of tropical cyclones in August-September. A slow trade-wind case study in June 2011 emphasizes key air-sea interactions. Channeling of the large-scale airflow north of the Andes Mountains creates a narrow atmospheric bridge for transmission of ENSO signals.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139658460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Information about the climate change impacts on river discharge of 2 tributary basins of the Irtysh River, the Oba and Ulbi, is important for effective management of the water resources of the Shulba reservoir in Kazakhstan. The main aim of the study was to investigate potential changes in water resource availability in the study basins. To assess the projected changes, the process-based eco-hydrological model SWIM was used under 2 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate scenarios obtained from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). Our results show an increase in mean annual temperature of 6.1°C, an increase in average annual precipitation of 7.5 to 14%, an increase in annual average discharge for the Oba (6 to 8%) and smaller discharge changes (below 5%) for the Ulbi at the end of the century under RCP8.5—a scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions—compared to the reference period (1981-2010). Seasonal variations are marked by the peak discharge occurring up to a month earlier, a decrease in the duration of snow accumulation and a reduction in discharge during the summer months. The peak discharge period is prolonged in time, and a slight increase in river discharge could be expected from October to December. Possible future changes in climate may have serious impacts on water resources, agriculture and economic development in the case study basins. The results of this study can be extrapolated to other neighboring basins in Kazakhstan with similar climatic and geophysical characteristics.
{"title":"Assessment of climate change impacts for two tributary basins of the Irtysh River in Kazakhstan","authors":"A Bolatova, V Krysanova, A Lobanova, K Bolatov","doi":"10.3354/cr01726","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01726","url":null,"abstract":"Information about the climate change impacts on river discharge of 2 tributary basins of the Irtysh River, the Oba and Ulbi, is important for effective management of the water resources of the Shulba reservoir in Kazakhstan. The main aim of the study was to investigate potential changes in water resource availability in the study basins. To assess the projected changes, the process-based eco-hydrological model SWIM was used under 2 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate scenarios obtained from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). Our results show an increase in mean annual temperature of 6.1°C, an increase in average annual precipitation of 7.5 to 14%, an increase in annual average discharge for the Oba (6 to 8%) and smaller discharge changes (below 5%) for the Ulbi at the end of the century under RCP8.5—a scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions—compared to the reference period (1981-2010). Seasonal variations are marked by the peak discharge occurring up to a month earlier, a decrease in the duration of snow accumulation and a reduction in discharge during the summer months. The peak discharge period is prolonged in time, and a slight increase in river discharge could be expected from October to December. Possible future changes in climate may have serious impacts on water resources, agriculture and economic development in the case study basins. The results of this study can be extrapolated to other neighboring basins in Kazakhstan with similar climatic and geophysical characteristics.","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135874434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Climate calibration of the Spring Index Model for a more accurate large-scale first leaf","authors":"L. Liang","doi":"10.3354/cr01708","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01708","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75987289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An updated analysis of surface warming trend in North China based on in-depth homogenized data (1951-2020)","authors":"J. He, G. Ren, P. Zhang, X. Zheng, S. Zhang","doi":"10.3354/cr01724","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01724","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88009788","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How does deforestation at different spatial scales affect the climate of the Amazon basin?","authors":"Á. Lima, J. Veiga, A. Brito, F. Correia","doi":"10.3354/cr01717","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01717","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10438,"journal":{"name":"Climate Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79753314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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