避免急性冲击后的未来意外:荷兰 2021 年夏季洪水引发的长期洪水风险教训

IF 6 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Environmental Sciences Europe Pub Date : 2024-08-03 DOI:10.1186/s12302-024-00960-3
Wieke Pot, Yza de Ridder, Art Dewulf
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2021 年夏天,荷兰林堡省遭遇了两天暴雨造成的严重高水位事件,造成了价值 3.83 亿欧元的损失。事后,不同的政策参与者组织了一系列评估。本研究分析了这些评估以及从这次洪水事件中汲取的长期教训。应对气候变化需要深入了解从洪水等严重冲击中汲取的经验教训如何促进对气候变化的预测,以及如何制定能够应对未来极端情况的解决方案。因此,本研究将政策学习理论--单环、双环和三环学习--应用于洪水安全的不同层面,以分析政府在多大程度上为未来事件做好准备以及如何做好准备。研究结果表明,2021 年之前的水和洪水风险管理政策--我们在 2021 年洪水之后总结经验教训的比较点--主要侧重于防洪(第 1 层),从 1996 年开始,随着 "河流空间 "计划的启动,这些政策也侧重于空间规划(第 2 层),但并不重视危机管理(第 3 层)。基于 2021 年的洪灾,官方评估委员会建议在多层防洪安全方法中增加两层:提高水意识(第 0 层,作为其他各层的基础层)和关注洪灾后的气候恢复(第 4 层),以提高长期稳健性。根据我们的研究,三重循环学习作为最深层次的学习类型,以将 "河流房间 "方法应用于支流小溪系统的形式出现。为了为未来做好准备,政策评估建议改进压力测试,以更好地应对气候变化。还建议对未来进行设想和展望。创建未来愿景有助于引导改变现有的土地用途,重新考虑建设或用于蓄水的区域。建议各国政府加强预测能力,将其作为危机管理应对和恢复系统的一部分。此外,政府还需要综合运用多层安全的不同层面,确保各地区能够为未来的洪灾做好准备。
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Avoiding future surprises after acute shocks: long-term flood risk lessons catalysed by the 2021 summer flood in the Netherlands

In summer 2021, the Dutch Province of Limburg faced an acute high-water event caused by two days of heavy rainfall, resulting in €383 million worth of damage. Afterwards, various policy actors organised a number of evaluations. This study analyses these evaluations and the long-term lessons drawn from this flood event. Dealing with climate change requires insights into how lessons from acute shocks such as floods can stimulate the anticipation of climate change and solutions that can cope with future extremes. This study therefore applies policy learning theory—single, double and triple loop learning—to different layers of flood safety to analyse the extent to which governments prepare for future events and how.

The results show that pre-2021 water and flood risk management policies—our point of comparison to derive what lessons emerge after the 2021 flood—focused mostly on flood prevention (layer 1) and from 1996 onwards with the start of the Room for the River programme also on spatial planning (layer 2), without paying much attention to crisis management (layer 3). Based on the 2021 flood, the official evaluation committee recommends adding two more layers to the multilayer flood safety approach: increasing water awareness (layer 0 as a base layer for the other layers) and focusing on climate-robust recovery after floods (layer 4) to improve long-term robustness. Based on our research, triple-loop learning as the deepest type of learning appeared in the form of applying the Room for the River approach to the tributary brooks systems. To prepare for the future, policy evaluations recommend improving stress tests to better deal with climate change. Futures scenarios and visions for the future are also recommended. Creating future visions can help to steer changes in existing land use and re-think areas to build or to use for water retention, for example. Governments are advised to strengthen their anticipatory capacities as part of their crisis management response and recovery systems. Furthermore, governments will need to apply the different layers for multilayer safety in an integrated way to ensure that regions are able to prepare for future floods.

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来源期刊
Environmental Sciences Europe
Environmental Sciences Europe Environmental Science-Pollution
CiteScore
11.20
自引率
1.70%
发文量
110
审稿时长
13 weeks
期刊介绍: ESEU is an international journal, focusing primarily on Europe, with a broad scope covering all aspects of environmental sciences, including the main topic regulation. ESEU will discuss the entanglement between environmental sciences and regulation because, in recent years, there have been misunderstandings and even disagreement between stakeholders in these two areas. ESEU will help to improve the comprehension of issues between environmental sciences and regulation. ESEU will be an outlet from the German-speaking (DACH) countries to Europe and an inlet from Europe to the DACH countries regarding environmental sciences and regulation. Moreover, ESEU will facilitate the exchange of ideas and interaction between Europe and the DACH countries regarding environmental regulatory issues. Although Europe is at the center of ESEU, the journal will not exclude the rest of the world, because regulatory issues pertaining to environmental sciences can be fully seen only from a global perspective.
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