Russian olive distribution and invasion dynamics along the Powder River, Montana and Wyoming, USA

The invasive shrub, Russian olive (Elaeagnus augustifolia), is widely established within riparian areas across North America and eastern Europe. Limited information on its distribution and invasion dynamics in northern regions has hampered understanding and management efforts. Given this lack of spatial and ecological information we worked with local stakeholders and developed two main objectives: (1) map the distribution of Russian olive along the Powder River (Montana and Wyoming, United States) as of 2020 with field data and remote sensing; and (2) relate that distribution to environmental variables to understand its habitat suitability and community/invasion dynamics. Field data showed Russian olive has reached near equal canopy cover (18.3%) to native Plains cottonwood (Populus deltoides; 19.1%) and has a broader distribution. At the watershed scale, we modeled Russian olive distribution using field surveys, ocular sampling of aerial imagery, and spectral variables from Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument using a random forest model (RMSE = 15.42, R² = 0.64). A statistical model linking the resulting Russian olive percent cover detection map to environmental variables for the entire watershed indicated Russian olive cover increased with flow accumulation and decreased with elevation, and was associated with poorer soil types. We attribute the success of Russian olive to its broad habitat suitability combined with changing hydrologic conditions favoring it over natives. The maps of Russian olive cover along the Powder River and its main tributaries in northern Wyoming and southern Montana revealed regions of the watershed with high and low cover, which can guide landscape-scale management prioritization. This study provides a repeatable Russian olive detection method due to the use of Sentinel-2 imagery that is available worldwide and provides insight into Russian olive’s ecological relationships and success with relevance for management across areas with similar environmental conditions.