俄罗斯入侵乌克兰对全球林产品市场的影响预测

IF 4 2区 农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS Forest Policy and Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI:10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103301
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引用次数: 0

摘要

这项研究深入探讨了俄罗斯入侵乌克兰对全球林产品贸易和相关市场的短期(<10 年)和长期(未来 10 至 30 年)影响预测。该评估是通过比较全球林产品市场(GFPM)模型对 "一切照旧 "参考情景(无入侵)和替代情景的预测结果而进行的。替代情景代表了当前几个主要伙伴国对俄罗斯木制品贸易的贸易制裁,以及 2021-2025 年期间乌克兰军事行动可能导致的贸易中断,并假定俄罗斯入侵在此之前结束,此后不再有此类贸易限制。结果表明,俄罗斯、乌克兰和全球木制品行业预计会受到相当大的短期干扰,表现为工业圆材和木制品成品价格上涨(最高达 3%),以及木制品的生产、消费和贸易转移发生变化。然而,从长远来看,随着俄罗斯工业圆材和锯材市场开始恢复,全球市场开始向入侵前的水平靠拢,预计总体破坏程度会降低。分析还预测,俄罗斯人造板、纸和纸板市场以及乌克兰纸和纸板市场在未来 30 年内不会恢复,这表明这些木制品市场可能会发生永久性结构变化。这些研究结果表明,近期和长期内,俄罗斯、乌克兰和世界其他地区的林产品行业将受到一些经济和环境影响。
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Projected effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on global forest products markets

This study provided an insight into the projected short-term (<10 years) and long-term (next 10 to 30 years) effects of the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine on global forest products trade and associated markets. The assessment was conducted by comparing the projected outcomes from the Global Forest Products Market (GFPM) model for a business-as-usual reference (no invasion) scenario and an alternate scenario representing the current trade sanctions for Russian wood products trade by several major partner countries, and the potential trade disruption in Ukraine due to their military operations, during the 2021–2025 period, and no such trade restrictions thereafter assuming the Russian invasion ends by that time. Results indicate a considerable projected short-term disruption in the Russian, Ukrainian, and the global wood products sector in terms of higher prices of industrial roundwood and finished wood products (up to 3%) and altered production, consumption and trade displacement for wood products. However, in the long run, a lower overall disruption is projected as Russian markets for industrial roundwood and sawnwood start to recover and the global markets begin to converge to pre-invasion levels. The analysis also projects that Russian markets for wood-based panels and paper and paperboard and Ukrainian markets for paper and paperboard do not recover within the next 30 years, suggesting a likely permanent structural change in markets of these wood product groups. These findings suggest several economic and environmental implications for the forest products sector in Russia, Ukraine and the rest of the world in the near- and long-term.

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来源期刊
Forest Policy and Economics
Forest Policy and Economics 农林科学-林学
CiteScore
9.00
自引率
7.50%
发文量
148
审稿时长
21.9 weeks
期刊介绍: Forest Policy and Economics is a leading scientific journal that publishes peer-reviewed policy and economics research relating to forests, forested landscapes, forest-related industries, and other forest-relevant land uses. It also welcomes contributions from other social sciences and humanities perspectives that make clear theoretical, conceptual and methodological contributions to the existing state-of-the-art literature on forests and related land use systems. These disciplines include, but are not limited to, sociology, anthropology, human geography, history, jurisprudence, planning, development studies, and psychology research on forests. Forest Policy and Economics is global in scope and publishes multiple article types of high scientific standard. Acceptance for publication is subject to a double-blind peer-review process.
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