{"title":"利用 K 倍超参数空间中的蚁群交叉搜索改进套利价差预测的优化 LSTM 网络","authors":"Zeliang Zeng, Panke Qin, Yue Zhang, Yongli Tang, Shenjie Cheng, Sensen Tu, Yongjie Ding, Zhenlun Gao, Yaxing Liu","doi":"10.7717/peerj-cs.2215","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Arbitrage spread prediction can provide valuable insights into the identification of arbitrage signals and assessing associated risks in algorithmic trading. However, achieving precise forecasts by increasing model complexity remains a challenging task. Moreover, uncertainty in the development and maintenance of model often results in extremely unstable returns. To address these challenges, we propose a K-fold cross-search algorithm-optimized LSTM (KCS-LSTM) network for arbitrage spread prediction. The KCS heuristic algorithm incorporates an iterative updating mechanism of the search space with intervals as the basic unit into the traditional ant colony optimization. It optimized the hyperparameters of the LSTM model with a modified fitness function to automatically adapt to various data sets, thereby simplified and enhanced the efficiency of model development. The KCS-LSTM network was validated using real spread data of rebar and hot-rolled coil from the past three years. The results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms several common models on sMAPE by improving up to 12.6% to 72.4%. The KCS-LSTM network is shown to be competitive in predicting arbitrage spreads compared to complex neural network models.","PeriodicalId":3,"journal":{"name":"ACS Applied Electronic Materials","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"An optimized LSTM network for improving arbitrage spread forecasting using ant colony cross-searching in the K-fold hyperparameter space\",\"authors\":\"Zeliang Zeng, Panke Qin, Yue Zhang, Yongli Tang, Shenjie Cheng, Sensen Tu, Yongjie Ding, Zhenlun Gao, Yaxing Liu\",\"doi\":\"10.7717/peerj-cs.2215\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Arbitrage spread prediction can provide valuable insights into the identification of arbitrage signals and assessing associated risks in algorithmic trading. However, achieving precise forecasts by increasing model complexity remains a challenging task. Moreover, uncertainty in the development and maintenance of model often results in extremely unstable returns. To address these challenges, we propose a K-fold cross-search algorithm-optimized LSTM (KCS-LSTM) network for arbitrage spread prediction. The KCS heuristic algorithm incorporates an iterative updating mechanism of the search space with intervals as the basic unit into the traditional ant colony optimization. It optimized the hyperparameters of the LSTM model with a modified fitness function to automatically adapt to various data sets, thereby simplified and enhanced the efficiency of model development. The KCS-LSTM network was validated using real spread data of rebar and hot-rolled coil from the past three years. The results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms several common models on sMAPE by improving up to 12.6% to 72.4%. The KCS-LSTM network is shown to be competitive in predicting arbitrage spreads compared to complex neural network models.\",\"PeriodicalId\":3,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"ACS Applied Electronic Materials\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-09\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"ACS Applied Electronic Materials\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"94\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj-cs.2215\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"材料科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ACS Applied Electronic Materials","FirstCategoryId":"94","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj-cs.2215","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"材料科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC","Score":null,"Total":0}
An optimized LSTM network for improving arbitrage spread forecasting using ant colony cross-searching in the K-fold hyperparameter space
Arbitrage spread prediction can provide valuable insights into the identification of arbitrage signals and assessing associated risks in algorithmic trading. However, achieving precise forecasts by increasing model complexity remains a challenging task. Moreover, uncertainty in the development and maintenance of model often results in extremely unstable returns. To address these challenges, we propose a K-fold cross-search algorithm-optimized LSTM (KCS-LSTM) network for arbitrage spread prediction. The KCS heuristic algorithm incorporates an iterative updating mechanism of the search space with intervals as the basic unit into the traditional ant colony optimization. It optimized the hyperparameters of the LSTM model with a modified fitness function to automatically adapt to various data sets, thereby simplified and enhanced the efficiency of model development. The KCS-LSTM network was validated using real spread data of rebar and hot-rolled coil from the past three years. The results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms several common models on sMAPE by improving up to 12.6% to 72.4%. The KCS-LSTM network is shown to be competitive in predicting arbitrage spreads compared to complex neural network models.