利用美国人类乳头状瘤病毒和复发性呼吸道乳头状瘤病的动态传播模型预测疾病负担

Viruses Pub Date : 2024-08-11 DOI:10.3390/v16081283
Cody Palmer, Edith Morais, Joseph Tota
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引用次数: 0

摘要

青少年和成人复发性呼吸道乳头状瘤病(JORRP 和 AORRP)是由口腔人类乳头状瘤病毒(HPV)感染引起的罕见但严重的疾病。疣状增生遍布整个呼吸道,可导致医疗问题,包括死亡。目前的治疗方案是手术,但可以通过接种疫苗来预防人乳头瘤病毒感染。利用疾病负担和人乳头瘤病毒感染的数据,对之前开发的 JORRP 和 AORRP 模型进行了调整,使其适用于美国。该模型根据接种疫苗后疾病的减少情况进行了验证,并用于预测 JORRP 和 AORRP 的未来负担,估计 HPV 疫苗接种对这些疾病的影响。据该模型估计,从 2007 年(美国开始接种 HPV 疫苗)到 2021 年,接种 HPV 疫苗可挽救约 1393 条生命、22867 个质量调整生命年以及超过 6.72 亿美元的治疗费用。此外,JORRP 和 AORRP 的负担也大幅降低,到 2040 年,发病率降低 95%。此外,根据模型预测,在 2040 年至 2121 年期间,美国与 HPV6/11 相关的 JORRP 总病例数为 3-11 例,与 HPV6/11 相关的 AORRP 总病例数为 36-267 例。美国的 HPV 疫苗接种已经并将继续推动大幅降低 HPV6/11 相关 JORRP 和 AORRP 的公共卫生和经济负担。
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Forecasting Disease Burden with a Dynamic Transmission Model of Human Papillomavirus and Recurrent Respiratory Papillomatosis in the United States
Juvenile- and adult-onset recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (JORRP and AORRP) are rare but serious conditions that are caused by oral human papillomavirus (HPV) infections. The proliferation of wart-like growths throughout the respiratory tract can result in medical problems, including death. The current treatment scheme is surgery, though prevention of HPV infection through vaccination is available. A previously developed model for JORRP and AORRP was adapted to the United States using data on disease burden and HPV infection. The model was validated against post-vaccination reductions in disease and used to forecast the future burden of JORRP and AORRP, estimating the impact that HPV vaccination will have on these diseases. Between 2007 (the beginning of HPV vaccination in the US) and 2021, this model estimates that approximately 1393 lives, 22,867 Quality-Adjusted-Life-Years, and over USD 672 million in treatment costs have been saved by HPV vaccination. There is also a substantial reduction in JORRP and AORRP burden, with a 95% reduction in incidence by 2040. Moreover, between 2040 and 2121, the model predicts 3–11 total cases of HPV6/11-related JORRP in the US, and 36–267 total cases of HPV6/11-related AORRP. HPV vaccination in the United States has driven, and will continue to drive, substantial reductions in the public health and economic burden of HPV6/11-related JORRP and AORRP.
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