Evaluating circular economy strategies for raw material recovery from end-of-life lithium-ion batteries: A system dynamics model

Across the globe, with the increasing emphasis on decarbonization, lithium-ion battery (LIB) demand for mobility (which serves as a power source for electric vehicles) and stationary energy storage sector (SESs) increases, which generates a large stock of end-of-life (EOL) LIBs. Continually increasing the stock of EOL LIB having different LIB variants necessitates the development of efficient circular economy (CE) strategies (recycling and repurposing) to recover raw materials contained in them. Focusing on different CE strategies, we develop a system dynamics model to address the complexity of the raw material recovery process by analyzing the interrelationship between collection rate (government), EOL LIB variant mix (consumer preference), and EOL LIB allocation to recycling and repurposing (Battery OEMs). Our analysis reveals that a high EOL collection rate and recycling reduces the raw material (Lithium (Li), Nickel (Ni), and Cobalt (Co)) demand by 2%–17% based on LIB variant proportion in EOL LIB stock. We observe thrice higher Co recovery and 1.5 times higher Ni recovery in material-rich battery chemistries as compared to others. Repurposing delays the raw material recovery but reduces LIB’s demand for SESs. In addition, we observe that the repurposed EOL LIB supply increases the recyclable EOL LIB supply by 0.027–0.2 million units at the end of 2030. Hence, it is imperative for emerging economic countries like India, with scarce strategic raw materials sources and increasing demand for LIB from mobility and SES sectors, to frame policies that incentivize the collection and EOL handling process infrastructure and prioritize between recycling and repurposing of EOL LIBs.