Balancing photovoltaic development and cropland protection: Assessing agrivoltaic potential in China

The expansion of utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) installations has precipitated a growing conflict for land resources between energy generation and agricultural production. Agrivoltaics, which integrate PV systems with crop production, have emerged as promising solutions to alleviate land-use conflicts. This research integrates spatial data on PV installations with agricultural productivity figures to assess the impact of China's PV expansion on croplands and estimate the yield potential for six main crops under agrivoltaics. The results disclose a substantial incursion of PV plants into croplands, totaling 911 km² by the year 2020. Compared to PV installations causing these croplands to be completely abandoned, agrivoltaics in a full-density PV system scenario could preserve up to 139 km² of cropland with a corresponding crop yield of 7.1 × 10⁴ tons, which is 9 % of the crop yield in a no-PV scenario. In a half-density PV system scenario, agrivoltaics could conserve 585 km² of cropland with a corresponding crop yield of 4.6 × 10⁵ tons, which is 55 % of the crop yield in a no-PV scenario. A regional distinction is observed, with northern agricultural regions demonstrating a more favorable agrivoltaic yield potential than the south. This study provides valuable insights for developing policies and best practices related to implementing agrivoltaics and PV spatial planning, thus steering a more sustainable coexistence of China's energy production and agricultural yield imperatives.