{"title":"中国过去和未来气候及社会经济变化下作物耗水量的时空动态分区","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.spc.2024.07.024","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The impacts of multiple changes in climatic and socioeconomic conditions within countries and regions are spatially heterogeneous, thus complicating stringent agricultural water management. Here we developed a framework for the dynamic identification of zone types and provided targeted agricultural water management strategies for each zone in response to global change. Considering China as an example, eight zones of typical major grain crop production prefectures were identified based on an analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics at four levels (agricultural, natural, social, and economic) according to the water footprint of major grain crop production at the prefecture-level for the past 15 years (2004–2018). We then presented the response of China's future zoning landscape for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under three representative scenarios by combining shared socioeconomic paths (SSPs) and representative concentration paths (RCPs). Results show that, by 2080, the national water consumption of the major grain crop production will increase under all scenarios. Half of the prefectures facing function shifts are likely to change from low to high water-consuming zones. Different zonal prefectures react differently under global changes, especially those that are prone to functional transformation, and should pay attention to their instability. Consideration of the water footprint in agricultural zoning is of great importance for national sustainable water resources management. This study proposes a more explicit approach to coping with global change, that is, to propose regionalized and prior agricultural water management strategies and measures for China and beyond.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48619,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Production and Consumption","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":10.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Spatial and temporal dynamic zoning of crop water consumption under past and future climate and socioeconomic changes in China\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.spc.2024.07.024\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>The impacts of multiple changes in climatic and socioeconomic conditions within countries and regions are spatially heterogeneous, thus complicating stringent agricultural water management. Here we developed a framework for the dynamic identification of zone types and provided targeted agricultural water management strategies for each zone in response to global change. Considering China as an example, eight zones of typical major grain crop production prefectures were identified based on an analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics at four levels (agricultural, natural, social, and economic) according to the water footprint of major grain crop production at the prefecture-level for the past 15 years (2004–2018). We then presented the response of China's future zoning landscape for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under three representative scenarios by combining shared socioeconomic paths (SSPs) and representative concentration paths (RCPs). Results show that, by 2080, the national water consumption of the major grain crop production will increase under all scenarios. Half of the prefectures facing function shifts are likely to change from low to high water-consuming zones. Different zonal prefectures react differently under global changes, especially those that are prone to functional transformation, and should pay attention to their instability. Consideration of the water footprint in agricultural zoning is of great importance for national sustainable water resources management. This study proposes a more explicit approach to coping with global change, that is, to propose regionalized and prior agricultural water management strategies and measures for China and beyond.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48619,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Sustainable Production and Consumption\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":10.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-31\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Sustainable Production and Consumption\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352550924002173\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Sustainable Production and Consumption","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352550924002173","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Spatial and temporal dynamic zoning of crop water consumption under past and future climate and socioeconomic changes in China
The impacts of multiple changes in climatic and socioeconomic conditions within countries and regions are spatially heterogeneous, thus complicating stringent agricultural water management. Here we developed a framework for the dynamic identification of zone types and provided targeted agricultural water management strategies for each zone in response to global change. Considering China as an example, eight zones of typical major grain crop production prefectures were identified based on an analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics at four levels (agricultural, natural, social, and economic) according to the water footprint of major grain crop production at the prefecture-level for the past 15 years (2004–2018). We then presented the response of China's future zoning landscape for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under three representative scenarios by combining shared socioeconomic paths (SSPs) and representative concentration paths (RCPs). Results show that, by 2080, the national water consumption of the major grain crop production will increase under all scenarios. Half of the prefectures facing function shifts are likely to change from low to high water-consuming zones. Different zonal prefectures react differently under global changes, especially those that are prone to functional transformation, and should pay attention to their instability. Consideration of the water footprint in agricultural zoning is of great importance for national sustainable water resources management. This study proposes a more explicit approach to coping with global change, that is, to propose regionalized and prior agricultural water management strategies and measures for China and beyond.
期刊介绍:
Sustainable production and consumption refers to the production and utilization of goods and services in a way that benefits society, is economically viable, and has minimal environmental impact throughout its entire lifespan. Our journal is dedicated to publishing top-notch interdisciplinary research and practical studies in this emerging field. We take a distinctive approach by examining the interplay between technology, consumption patterns, and policy to identify sustainable solutions for both production and consumption systems.