山区农牧社区对气候变化的认识和适应:阿富汗中部高原的案例

IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Climate Risk Management Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI:10.1016/j.crm.2024.100639
Qurban Aliyar , Marzieh Keshavarz , Mohammad Wali Salari , David Haro-Monteagudo , Morteza Esmaelnejad , Neil Collins
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引用次数: 0

摘要

农业是阿富汗中部高原农牧家庭的主要生计来源。然而,他们的生计受到气候变化的严重影响。本研究从阿富汗中部五省农牧社区的经验和行为出发,探讨了对气候变化的认识、后果和适应能力。对 521 户农牧家庭进行了调查,以收集有关社会经济因素、看法和适应指标的数据。结果显示了农牧社区如何受到气候变化的影响、他们如何适应气候变化、哪些因素会影响他们的决策以及在利用传统知识进行适应时面临的挑战。分析数据显示了人们对气候变化积极和消极后果的看法。积极后果包括寒冷季节缩短、雪崩减少、交通便利、取暖所需燃料减少以及放牧季节延长。然而,人们认为气候变化的负面影响包括再次发生严重和持续的干旱、降雪量减少和农作物减产。此外,K-均值聚类分析显示,农牧民对气候变化的适应程度分为低、中和高三个等级。农牧家庭采取了各种策略来提高对气候变化的适应能力,包括作物、土壤、水、牲畜、支出和生计管理。此外,社会人口因素、干旱严重程度、气候变化感知和气候变化影响感知是适应气候变化的主要决定因素。本研究概述了主要差距和驱动因素,以帮助未来的研究人员、管理者和决策者根据农民的关注点及其减轻气候变化影响的适应能力来确定行动的优先次序。
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Perceptions of and adaptation to climate change in mountainous agro-pastoral communities: The case of the Afghan central highlands

Agriculture is the primary source of livelihood for agro-pastoral families in the central highlands of Afghanistan. However, their livelihoods have been significantly affected by climate change. This study examines climate change perceptions, consequences, and adaptive capacity from agro-pastoral communities’ experiences and behaviours in the five central provinces of Afghanistan. A survey was conducted in 521 agro-pastoral households to collect data on socioeconomic factors, perceptions, and adaptation indicators. The results show how agro-pastoral communities are affected by climate change, how they adapt, and which factors influence their decision-making and challenges when using traditional knowledge in adaptation. The analysed data revealed perceptions of both the positive and negative consequences of climate change. Positive consequences include shorter cold seasons, fewer avalanches, improved accessibility, reduced fuel requirements for heating, and extended grazing seasons. However, the perceived negative consequences of climate change include recurrence of severe and sustained droughts, decreased snowfall, and reduced crop yields. Additionally, K-means cluster analysis revealed low, medium, and high levels of adaptation to climate change. Agro-pastoral families have adopted various strategies to improve their adaptation to climate change, including crop, soil, water, livestock, expenditure, and livelihood management. Furthermore, socio-demographic factors, drought severity, perceived climate change, and perceived climate change impacts were the main determinants of adaptation to climate change. This study outlines the main gaps and drivers to help future researchers, managers, and decision-makers prioritize their actions based on farmers’ concerns and their adaptive capacity to abate climate change impacts.

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来源期刊
Climate Risk Management
Climate Risk Management Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
8.20
自引率
4.50%
发文量
76
审稿时长
30 weeks
期刊介绍: Climate Risk Management publishes original scientific contributions, state-of-the-art reviews and reports of practical experience on the use of knowledge and information regarding the consequences of climate variability and climate change in decision and policy making on climate change responses from the near- to long-term. The concept of climate risk management refers to activities and methods that are used by individuals, organizations, and institutions to facilitate climate-resilient decision-making. Its objective is to promote sustainable development by maximizing the beneficial impacts of climate change responses and minimizing negative impacts across the full spectrum of geographies and sectors that are potentially affected by the changing climate.
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