Qurban Aliyar , Marzieh Keshavarz , Mohammad Wali Salari , David Haro-Monteagudo , Morteza Esmaelnejad , Neil Collins
{"title":"山区农牧社区对气候变化的认识和适应:阿富汗中部高原的案例","authors":"Qurban Aliyar , Marzieh Keshavarz , Mohammad Wali Salari , David Haro-Monteagudo , Morteza Esmaelnejad , Neil Collins","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100639","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Agriculture is the primary source of livelihood for agro-pastoral families in the central highlands of Afghanistan. However, their livelihoods have been significantly affected by climate change. This study examines climate change perceptions, consequences, and adaptive capacity from agro-pastoral communities’ experiences and behaviours in the five central provinces of Afghanistan. A survey was conducted in 521 agro-pastoral households to collect data on socioeconomic factors, perceptions, and adaptation indicators. The results show how agro-pastoral communities are affected by climate change, how they adapt, and which factors influence their decision-making and challenges when using traditional knowledge in adaptation. The analysed data revealed perceptions of both the positive and negative consequences of climate change. Positive consequences include shorter cold seasons, fewer avalanches, improved accessibility, reduced fuel requirements for heating, and extended grazing seasons. However, the perceived negative consequences of climate change include recurrence of severe and sustained droughts, decreased snowfall, and reduced crop yields. Additionally, K-means cluster analysis revealed low, medium, and high levels of adaptation to climate change. Agro-pastoral families have adopted various strategies to improve their adaptation to climate change, including crop, soil, water, livestock, expenditure, and livelihood management. Furthermore, socio-demographic factors, drought severity, perceived climate change, and perceived climate change impacts were the main determinants of adaptation to climate change. This study outlines the main gaps and drivers to help future researchers, managers, and decision-makers prioritize their actions based on farmers’ concerns and their adaptive capacity to abate climate change impacts.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000561/pdfft?md5=25080172c915840b1e654798023e6caa&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000561-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Perceptions of and adaptation to climate change in mountainous agro-pastoral communities: The case of the Afghan central highlands\",\"authors\":\"Qurban Aliyar , Marzieh Keshavarz , Mohammad Wali Salari , David Haro-Monteagudo , Morteza Esmaelnejad , Neil Collins\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100639\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Agriculture is the primary source of livelihood for agro-pastoral families in the central highlands of Afghanistan. However, their livelihoods have been significantly affected by climate change. This study examines climate change perceptions, consequences, and adaptive capacity from agro-pastoral communities’ experiences and behaviours in the five central provinces of Afghanistan. A survey was conducted in 521 agro-pastoral households to collect data on socioeconomic factors, perceptions, and adaptation indicators. The results show how agro-pastoral communities are affected by climate change, how they adapt, and which factors influence their decision-making and challenges when using traditional knowledge in adaptation. The analysed data revealed perceptions of both the positive and negative consequences of climate change. Positive consequences include shorter cold seasons, fewer avalanches, improved accessibility, reduced fuel requirements for heating, and extended grazing seasons. However, the perceived negative consequences of climate change include recurrence of severe and sustained droughts, decreased snowfall, and reduced crop yields. Additionally, K-means cluster analysis revealed low, medium, and high levels of adaptation to climate change. Agro-pastoral families have adopted various strategies to improve their adaptation to climate change, including crop, soil, water, livestock, expenditure, and livelihood management. Furthermore, socio-demographic factors, drought severity, perceived climate change, and perceived climate change impacts were the main determinants of adaptation to climate change. 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Perceptions of and adaptation to climate change in mountainous agro-pastoral communities: The case of the Afghan central highlands
Agriculture is the primary source of livelihood for agro-pastoral families in the central highlands of Afghanistan. However, their livelihoods have been significantly affected by climate change. This study examines climate change perceptions, consequences, and adaptive capacity from agro-pastoral communities’ experiences and behaviours in the five central provinces of Afghanistan. A survey was conducted in 521 agro-pastoral households to collect data on socioeconomic factors, perceptions, and adaptation indicators. The results show how agro-pastoral communities are affected by climate change, how they adapt, and which factors influence their decision-making and challenges when using traditional knowledge in adaptation. The analysed data revealed perceptions of both the positive and negative consequences of climate change. Positive consequences include shorter cold seasons, fewer avalanches, improved accessibility, reduced fuel requirements for heating, and extended grazing seasons. However, the perceived negative consequences of climate change include recurrence of severe and sustained droughts, decreased snowfall, and reduced crop yields. Additionally, K-means cluster analysis revealed low, medium, and high levels of adaptation to climate change. Agro-pastoral families have adopted various strategies to improve their adaptation to climate change, including crop, soil, water, livestock, expenditure, and livelihood management. Furthermore, socio-demographic factors, drought severity, perceived climate change, and perceived climate change impacts were the main determinants of adaptation to climate change. This study outlines the main gaps and drivers to help future researchers, managers, and decision-makers prioritize their actions based on farmers’ concerns and their adaptive capacity to abate climate change impacts.
期刊介绍:
Climate Risk Management publishes original scientific contributions, state-of-the-art reviews and reports of practical experience on the use of knowledge and information regarding the consequences of climate variability and climate change in decision and policy making on climate change responses from the near- to long-term.
The concept of climate risk management refers to activities and methods that are used by individuals, organizations, and institutions to facilitate climate-resilient decision-making. Its objective is to promote sustainable development by maximizing the beneficial impacts of climate change responses and minimizing negative impacts across the full spectrum of geographies and sectors that are potentially affected by the changing climate.