关于宇宙学参数估计的边际和剖面后验

arXiv - PHYS - Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability Pub Date : 2024-08-04 DOI:arxiv-2408.02063

Martin Kerscher, Jochen Weller

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摘要

通过几个例子和对Pantheon+超新星样本的分析，我们讨论了边际后验分布与剖面后验分布--贝叶斯化的剖面似然--的特性。我们研究了是最大化（用于剖析）更合适，还是积分（用于边际化）更合适。为了报告结果，我们推荐使用边际后验分布。

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On marginals and profiled posteriors for cosmological parameter estimation

With several examples and in an analysis of the Pantheon+ supernova sample we discuss the properties of the marginal posterior distribution versus the profiled posterior distribution -- the profile likelihood in a Bayesian disguise. We investigate whether maximisation, as used for the profiling, or integration, as used for the marginalisation, is more appropriate. To report results we recommend the marginal posterior distribution.

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arXiv - PHYS - Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability

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