{"title":"城市犯罪的空间、时间和解释性分析","authors":"Daniela Cueva, Pablo Cabrera-Barona","doi":"10.1007/s11205-024-03408-6","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study assessed the influence of socioeconomic and demographic indicators on different types of crime and explored the spatial and temporal dynamics of crime. Between 2014 and 2020, 174,365 criminal events registered in Quito, Ecuador, were collected and aggregated at an administrative area level. Time-series decompositions, spatial autocorrelations, and regression models were applied, considering different types of crime as dependent variables. A marked seasonal component of crime and crime hotspots in the center of the study area was identified. Crime events are likely to increase significantly by 2025. We also found that unemployment, schooling, unsatisfied basic needs, and especially the density of bars and night clubs are socioeconomic indicators influencing crime. Urban crimes present specific spatial and temporal patterns, and crime events can be explained by urban socioeconomic conditions.</p>","PeriodicalId":21943,"journal":{"name":"Social Indicators Research","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Spatial, Temporal, and Explanatory Analyses of Urban Crime\",\"authors\":\"Daniela Cueva, Pablo Cabrera-Barona\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s11205-024-03408-6\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>This study assessed the influence of socioeconomic and demographic indicators on different types of crime and explored the spatial and temporal dynamics of crime. Between 2014 and 2020, 174,365 criminal events registered in Quito, Ecuador, were collected and aggregated at an administrative area level. Time-series decompositions, spatial autocorrelations, and regression models were applied, considering different types of crime as dependent variables. A marked seasonal component of crime and crime hotspots in the center of the study area was identified. Crime events are likely to increase significantly by 2025. We also found that unemployment, schooling, unsatisfied basic needs, and especially the density of bars and night clubs are socioeconomic indicators influencing crime. Urban crimes present specific spatial and temporal patterns, and crime events can be explained by urban socioeconomic conditions.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":21943,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Social Indicators Research\",\"volume\":\"43 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Social Indicators Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"90\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-024-03408-6\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"社会学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Social Indicators Research","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-024-03408-6","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Spatial, Temporal, and Explanatory Analyses of Urban Crime
This study assessed the influence of socioeconomic and demographic indicators on different types of crime and explored the spatial and temporal dynamics of crime. Between 2014 and 2020, 174,365 criminal events registered in Quito, Ecuador, were collected and aggregated at an administrative area level. Time-series decompositions, spatial autocorrelations, and regression models were applied, considering different types of crime as dependent variables. A marked seasonal component of crime and crime hotspots in the center of the study area was identified. Crime events are likely to increase significantly by 2025. We also found that unemployment, schooling, unsatisfied basic needs, and especially the density of bars and night clubs are socioeconomic indicators influencing crime. Urban crimes present specific spatial and temporal patterns, and crime events can be explained by urban socioeconomic conditions.
期刊介绍：
Since its foundation in 1974, Social Indicators Research has become the leading journal on problems related to the measurement of all aspects of the quality of life. The journal continues to publish results of research on all aspects of the quality of life and includes studies that reflect developments in the field. It devotes special attention to studies on such topics as sustainability of quality of life, sustainable development, and the relationship between quality of life and sustainability. The topics represented in the journal cover and involve a variety of segmentations, such as social groups, spatial and temporal coordinates, population composition, and life domains. The journal presents empirical, philosophical and methodological studies that cover the entire spectrum of society and are devoted to giving evidences through indicators. It considers indicators in their different typologies, and gives special attention to indicators that are able to meet the need of understanding social realities and phenomena that are increasingly more complex, interrelated, interacted and dynamical. In addition, it presents studies aimed at defining new approaches in constructing indicators.
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