利用概念生态模型确定关键数据和不确定因素,以支持数值建模:以墨西哥湾北部东部牡蛎 Crassostrea virginica 为例

IF 1.8 3区 农林科学 Q2 FISHERIES Marine and Coastal Fisheries Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI:10.1002/mcf2.10297
Megan K. La Peyre, Shaye Sable, Danielle A. Marshall, Elise Irwin, Chad Hanson
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目标越来越多地依靠数值模拟模型为管理和恢复选择提供信息,这得益于对模型开发早期关键步骤的认真考虑。在墨西哥湾北部沿岸,东部牡蛎(Crassostrea virginica)发挥着重要的生态和经济作用。以东部牡蛎为例,我们借鉴了最近的几个框架,这些框架概述了用于恢复、保护和管理的模型开发和应用的最佳实践。方法我们确定了优先模型问题,概述了指导数值模型开发的概念生态模型(CEM),并使用该框架确定了不确定性和研究需求、种群和元种群变化的驱动因素以及不断变化的环境因素。大多数与牡蛎恢复和捕捞有关的管理措施会直接影响种群属性,但许多沿岸管理措施 和变化(如气候变化、沿岸和水资源工程)也会直接影响种群属性、结论投资于针对牡蛎个体和种群水平的多胁迫反应(过滤、呼吸、生长和繁殖)的研 究,以及针对影响种群生命速率和属性(即连通性和底质持久性)的驱动因素的水动力 和环境模型的改进,将有助于减少不确定性。开发涵盖牡蛎整个生命周期和种群连通性的数值模型,使用当前和预测条件下的水动力模型,提供影响幼体运动、繁殖和礁上牡蛎生命率的关键非生物和生物因素,将有助于平衡这一河口基础物种的保护、恢复和渔业管理目标。
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The use of conceptual ecological models to identify critical data and uncertainties to support numerical modeling: The northern Gulf of Mexico eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica example

Objective

Increasing reliance on numerical simulation models to help inform management and restoration choices benefits from careful consideration of critical early steps in model development. Along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, the eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica fulfills important ecological and economic roles. Using the eastern oyster as an example, we draw on several recent frameworks outlining best practices for model development and application for restoration, conservation, and management.

Methods

We identify priority model questions, outline a conceptual ecological model (CEM) to guide numerical model development, and use this framework to identify uncertainties and research needs.

Result

The CEM uses a nested design, identifying explicit vital rates, processes, attributes, and outcomes for the species (oysters), population, and metapopulation (i.e., network of populations) levels in response to drivers of species, population, and metapopulation changes and changing environmental factors. Most management actions related to oyster restoration and harvest affect population attributes directly, but many coastal management actions and changes (i.e., climate change and coastal and water resource engineering) impact environmental factors that alter vital rates and attributes of oysters, populations, and metapopulations.

Conclusion

Investment in studies targeting individual oyster- and population-level multi-stressor responses (filtration, respiration, growth, and reproduction) and improving hydrodynamic and environmental models targeting drivers that influence metapopulation vital rates and attributes (i.e., connectivity and substrate persistence) would contribute to reducing uncertainties. Development of numerical models covering the entire oyster life cycle and connectivity of populations using hydrodynamic models of current and predicted conditions to provide key abiotic and biotic factors influencing larval movement, recruitment, and on-reef oyster vital rates would assist in balancing the goals of conservation, restoration, and fisheries management of this foundational estuarine species.

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来源期刊
Marine and Coastal Fisheries
Marine and Coastal Fisheries FISHERIES-MARINE & FRESHWATER BIOLOGY
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
5.90%
发文量
40
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Marine and Coastal Fisheries: Dynamics, Management, and Ecosystem Science publishes original and innovative research that synthesizes information on biological organization across spatial and temporal scales to promote ecologically sound fisheries science and management. This open-access, online journal published by the American Fisheries Society provides an international venue for studies of marine, coastal, and estuarine fisheries, with emphasis on species'' performance and responses to perturbations in their environment, and promotes the development of ecosystem-based fisheries science and management.
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