在全球和全球范围内跨时空重建和预测海洋动态变化场

Zhixi Xiong, Yukang Jiang, Wenfang Lu, Xueqin Wang, Ting Tian
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引用次数: 0

摘要

海洋科学中的时空预测对于了解海洋系统及其对地球气候的影响至关重要。然而,现有的基于人工智能和统计的反演方法在利用海洋数据、生成连续输出和纳入物理约束方面面临挑战。我们提出了海洋动态重构和预测神经网络(MDRF-Net),它整合了海洋物理机制和观测数据,以重构和预测连续的海洋温度-盐度和动态场。MDRF-Net 利用统计理论和技术,采用并行神经网络共享初始层、两步训练策略和集合方法,有助于探索北极区等具有挑战性的海洋区域。我们从理论上证明了我们的集合方法的有效性和合理性,提供了其泛化误差的上限。通过全面的模拟研究验证了 MDRF-Net 的有效性,突出了其可靠估计未知参数的能力。此外,还与其他反演方法和分析数据进行了比较,结果表明,温度的全局测试误差为 0.455{/deg}C,盐度的全局测试误差为 0.0714psu。总之,MDRF-Net 利用物理机制和统计观点有效地揭示了海洋动力学系统,有助于加深对海洋系统及其对环境和人类利用海洋的影响的理解。
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Reconstructing and Forecasting Marine Dynamic Variable Fields across Space and Time Globally and Gaplessly
Spatiotemporal projections in marine science are essential for understanding ocean systems and their impact on Earth's climate. However, existing AI-based and statistics-based inversion methods face challenges in leveraging ocean data, generating continuous outputs, and incorporating physical constraints. We propose the Marine Dynamic Reconstruction and Forecast Neural Networks (MDRF-Net), which integrates marine physical mechanisms and observed data to reconstruct and forecast continuous ocean temperature-salinity and dynamic fields. MDRF-Net leverages statistical theories and techniques, incorporating parallel neural network sharing initial layer, two-step training strategy, and ensemble methodology, facilitating in exploring challenging marine areas like the Arctic zone. We have theoretically justified the efficacy of our ensemble method and the rationality of it by providing an upper bound on its generalization error.The effectiveness of MDRF-Net's is validated through a comprehensive simulation study, which highlights its capability to reliably estimate unknown parameters. Comparison with other inversion methods and reanalysis data are also conducted, and the global test error is 0.455{\deg}C for temperature and 0.0714psu for salinity. Overall, MDRF-Net effectively learns the ocean dynamics system using physical mechanisms and statistical insights, contributing to a deeper understanding of marine systems and their impact on the environment and human use of the ocean.
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