英国普雷斯顿新路诱发地震的物理调整地动预测方程

IF 1.6 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Journal of Seismology Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI:10.1007/s10950-024-10235-2
Pungky Megasari Suroyo, Jaleena Sunny, Benjamin Edwards
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引用次数: 0

摘要

由于数据稀缺和最上层地壳的异质性,预测诱发地震引起的地面运动是一项具有挑战性的任务。要解决这个问题,就必须透彻了解基本物理原理,并考虑场地间的变化。实践中最常用的地动模型是参数地动预测方程(GMPE),文献中已有数百种。然而,以诱发地震为重点开发的模型相对较少。开发特定于适当震级-距离范围(\(R < 30\) km;\(2 \le M \le 6\) )的地动预测方程对于诱发地震的应用非常重要。本文提出了一个基于物理的 GMPEs 开发框架,以便对潜在的诱发地震地动危险提供更准确、更可靠的估计,从而更好地进行风险评估和制定管理策略。为了展示这种方法,本文介绍了英国布莱克浦附近普雷斯顿新路(PNR)页岩气矿区 2018-2019 年诱发地震序列的一套新的 GMPE。基于物理的 GMPE 是在伪有限断层随机地动模拟的基础上开发的,并使用从诱发地震事件的弱震记录频谱分析中得出的参数进行校准。随后,使用面积度量(AM)进行了基于优化的校准技术,以校准模拟 PNR 站点地动的最佳参数。最后,利用对距离达 30 公里的地震记录进行的一套前向模拟,结合经验数据,通过调整现有模型,得出了特定地点的地动模型。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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Physically adjusted ground motion prediction equations for induced seismicity at Preston New Road, UK

Predicting ground motions due to induced seismicity is a challenging task owing to the scarcity of data and heterogeneity of the uppermost crust. Dealing with this requires a thorough understanding of the underlying physics and consideration of inter-site variability. The most common ground motion model used in practice is the parametric ground motion prediction equation (GMPE), of which hundreds exist in the literature. However, relatively few are developed with a focus on induced seismicity. Developing GMPEs that are specific to an appropriate magnitude-distance range (\(R < 30\) km; \(2 \le M \le 6\)) is important for induced seismicity applications. This paper proposes a framework for the development of physically-based GMPEs to provide more accurate and reliable estimates of the potential induced-seismicity ground motion hazard, allowing for better risk assessment and management strategies. To demonstrate this approach, a new set of GMPEs for the 2018-2019 induced seismicity sequence at the Preston New Road (PNR) shale gas site near Blackpool, United Kingdom, is presented. The physically-based GMPE was developed based on a pseudo-finite-fault stochastic ground motion simulation, calibrated with parameters derived from the spectral analysis of weak-motion records from induced seismic events. An optimization-based calibration technique using the area metric (AM) was subsequently performed to calibrate optimal parameters for simulating ground motion at the PNR site. Finally, using a suite of forward simulations for events with \(1 \le M \le 6\) recorded at distances up to 30 km, combined with empirical data, a location-specific GMPE was derived through adjustment of an existing model.

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来源期刊
Journal of Seismology
Journal of Seismology 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
3.30
自引率
6.20%
发文量
67
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: Journal of Seismology is an international journal specialising in all observational and theoretical aspects related to earthquake occurrence. Research topics may cover: seismotectonics, seismicity, historical seismicity, seismic source physics, strong ground motion studies, seismic hazard or risk, engineering seismology, physics of fault systems, triggered and induced seismicity, mining seismology, volcano seismology, earthquake prediction, structural investigations ranging from local to regional and global studies with a particular focus on passive experiments.
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